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The Emerging Influence of Project Intelligence (PI) Focussing on Risk Management for Project-Led Organizations

The Emerging Influence of Project Intelligence (PI) Focussing on Risk Management for Project-Led Organizations. Sarim Khan, CEO Pertmaster. Agenda. About Pertmaster Overview of the PI arena 5 Key PI pains and solutions Assessing Bid Viability for the Portfolio

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The Emerging Influence of Project Intelligence (PI) Focussing on Risk Management for Project-Led Organizations

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  1. The Emerging Influence of Project Intelligence (PI)Focussing on Risk Management for Project-Led Organizations Sarim Khan, CEO Pertmaster

  2. Agenda • About Pertmaster • Overview of the PI arena • 5 Key PI pains and solutions • Assessing Bid Viability for the Portfolio • Realistic Assignment and Forecasting of Project Funds • Modelling & Reporting “Real World” Events • Intelligent Risk Mitigation Scenarios • Portfolio Analysis & Intelligence • Next Steps

  3. Specialists in project risk intelligence software Faithful to project schedules Full RM system 20 year history Global presence Houston &Guildford, sales, training & support centres Network of 30+ resellers & partners Established user base 6000+ implementations Vision: Improved decision making through PI “PI arena is largely focussed on project-led companies with a strong focus on Risk Management” “Attracting users from PPM, BI and Risk & Compliance arenas ” About Pertmaster

  4. Pertmaster PI Arena Project Intelligence Arena Compliance Risk Management Business Intelligence Project & PortfolioManagement Strategic Earned value Reporting Execution

  5. Butler Group Quotes • BUTLER GROUP TECHNOLOGY REPORT • “Pertmaster has developed a product that sits between the traditional PPM and Risk Management areas using BI type technology to present the information in an easily digestible format” • “Pertmaster has identified a significant gap in the market and with Risk Expert, it provides organisations with the capability to consider projects from a more realistic perspective.” • Butler Group considers Risk Expert an excellent product that will add value to any organisation that is project focused”

  6. Selected Clients Case Studies on www.pertmaster.com Free Seminars Free White Papers

  7. Case Study Quotes • “PertMaster’s clear graphical simulations articulate project uncertainty, risk and impact in a way that stakeholders immediately understand and can consider”Pat McIntosh Atkins/BP Case Study • “Pertmaster has allowed us to understand and better control of risks that could affect the successful delivery of the Skynet 5 PFI” Alastair Alison, Paradigm Communications Case Study • “PertMaster improves our project intelligence. From the results of running risk scenarios we can better identify potentially severe events and build contingencies that can be quickly implemented to mitigate impact.” Philippe Robin, Total Case Study

  8. 5 Key PI Pains & Solutions Assessing Bid Viability for the Portfolio Realistic Assignment and Forecasting of Project Funds Modelling & Reporting “Real World” Events Intelligent Risk Mitigation scenarios Portfolio Analysis & Intelligence

  9. Assess Bid Viability: Pain • “Realistically”, what’s it worth to us? To support “Bid/No Bid” decision • Model many times (1000’s) and calculate NPV, IRR including DCF; Bid Modelling to include • Cost-loaded project schedule • Risks and uncertainties • Penalty clauses

  10. Assess Bid Viability: Solution Initial Cost Estimate Non-cost Loaded Schedule

  11. Assess Bid Viability: Solution

  12. Assess Bid Viability: Solution

  13. Assess Bid Viability: Solution

  14. Assess Bid Viability: Solution

  15. Assess Bid Viability: Solution

  16. Forecasting Project Funds: Pain • Often unrealistic based on historic data and “deterministic” project values • Model many project cashflows (1000’s) • Including risks, uncertainties, linked to schedule • Calculate “Probabilistic Cashflow” • Create PI reporting for decision making and negotiation

  17. Forecasting Project Funds: Solution

  18. Forecasting Project Funds: Solution

  19. Forecasting Project Funds: Solution

  20. Forecasting Project Funds: Solution

  21. Forecasting Project Funds: Solution

  22. Forecasting Project Funds: Valid EVM

  23. Modelling “Real World”: Pain Adverse Weather Modelling Example (Ideally in Bid Modelling) • OVERVIEW • Rig constructed & transported to Caspian Sea port • Destination freezes over in the winter • Need to ensure rig arrives before the freeze • ASSUMPTIONS • Rig transportation takes maximum of 25 days to transport • Decision on whether to transport made at least 25 days before freeze • BRANCH CONDITIONS • Rig is 100% complete & transported before freeze • If 80% complete, rig can be transported & completed on route • If less than 80% complete, transportation delayed till after the freeze

  24. Modelling “Real World”: Solution • Modelling condition 1 • Rig is complete before freeze • Freeze shown in yellow. • Modelling condition 2 • Rig is >80% before freeze • Completed on-route • Modelling condition 3 • Rig is <80% before freeze • Rig shipped after the freeze • Delivery Penalty

  25. Modelling “Real World”: Solution

  26. Modelling “Real World”: Solution

  27. Modelling “Real World”: Solution

  28. Modelling “Real World”: Solution

  29. Modelling “Real World”: Solution

  30. Intelligent Risk Mitigation: Pain • Today often loudest voice wins! • Ideally model many scenarios including risks from a risk register. • Improve risk mitigation planning and negotiations • Creates confidence on overall project delivery timelines

  31. Intelligent Risk Mitigation: Solution Register acts to assist project continuity as a knowledgebase for risks even when key staff move on

  32. Intelligent Risk Mitigation: Solution

  33. Intelligent Risk Mitigation: Solution Many XML Risk Reporting to Support Decisions

  34. Portfolio Analysis & Intelligence: Pain • Companies struggle to slice and dice risks on Enterprise Project Structure • Often try to simplify projects into spreadsheets • Lose valuable logic and information • Companies looking to report risks directly from Enterprise Project Platform (MS EPM solution, Primavera Enterprise) • Pertmaster Portfolio Analyzer provides users with a view of their risk information not previously available. • PPA Reports include executive summary, risk exposure, trend reporting, risk drivers and many others, all accessible through a powerful and easy to use report generator

  35. Portfolio Analysis & Intelligence: Solution • Rollup summary risk information • Report at all levels of the enterprise hierarchy

  36. Portfolio Analysis & Intelligence: Solution Structure the information to suit your needs using: • Primavera EPS Structure • Portfolios • Project Codes • RBS

  37. Portfolio Analysis & Intelligence: Solution • View enterprise risk exposure levels rapidly and informatively • Drill-down into the Risk Breakdown Structure to find the driving risks

  38. Portfolio Analysis & Intelligence: Solution • Monitor trends over time with enterprise trend reporting

  39. Next Steps • Further Discussion at our Booth! • Pilot project • On site seminar • Corporate risk initiative • Free Seminars • Arrange a meeting

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