1 / 28

Decadal Workshop

Decadal Workshop. David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office October 17, 2005. Outline. What is CLIVAR? What does it do? How is it organized? A challenge…. CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability.

damaris
Download Presentation

Decadal Workshop

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Decadal Workshop David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office October 17, 2005

  2. Outline • What is CLIVAR? • What does it do? • How is it organized? • A challenge…

  3. CLIVARClimate Variability and Predictability • What causes the variability of the earth's climate on time scales from seasons to centuries and can we predict it? • Can we distinguish natural from anthropogenic induced variability? • Science Plan - 1995 • U.S. CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee formed - Aug 1998 • Int’l CLIVAR Commitments Conference - December 1998 • First Int’l CLIVAR Science Conference - June 2004 • U.S. CLIVAR reorganization - August 2005 • CLIVAR will extend through 2013

  4. Earth System Science PartnershipDIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP, WCRP Integrated Regional Studies Open Science Conference Beijing, 9-12 Nov 2006 ESSP is a joint initiative of

  5. CLIVAR in the U.S. • Since 1998 • Active planning and coordination committees • Strong linkages to international CLIVAR and WCRP • Developing synthesized plans, recommendations, and priorities to US research agencies • Coordinating scientific activities

  6. U.S. CLIVAR Climate Model Evaluation Project (CMEP) • US CLIVAR recommended that NSF, NOAA, NASA, and DOE have a program to evaluate US coupled climate model simulations of 19th and 20th century • 61 proposals submitted - 19 funded • List of awards and abstract found at: www.usclivar.org/science.html • CMEP IPCC AR4 Workshop in Hawaii…over 150 participants

  7. IPCC AR4 ENSO Events OBS CCSM GFDL GISS A. Solomon A.Capotondi

  8. CMEP results: NAO Variability • NAO variability is tracked using the leading EOF of 850mb heights in the Atlantic sector • Models are able to generate the salient features of the NAO pattern. The observed pattern exhibits no Pacific connections, but the GFDL pattern does. The southern cell is eastward shifted in CCSM3 • Robust surface temperature signals are produced over northeastern North America and northern Europe and Asia in all models. Distribution of the warming signal over US is more varied, though • Precipitation anomalies over the Atlantic, reflecting meridional stormtrack displacement, are generally well captured in all models. Positive rainfall anomalies are placed a bit too eastward in CCSM3 and a bit too westward in the GISS C4x3 model. • NAO related zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies, having a dipole structure in the midlatitudes, are realistically modeled in the GFDL, CCSM3 and PCM runs; they serve to broaden the jet in all cases; connections to the lower stratosphere are also well modeled (Nigam)

  9. Decadal changes indicated along 52W Subtropical Mode Water 1997 Thickness 2003 Subtropical Mode Water Oxygen Upper Labrador Sea Water Salinity John Toole Oxygen Upper Labrador Sea Water CLIVAR-Carbon Repeat Ocean Survey Plans • Jointly initiated planning (U.S. CLIVAR and U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Group) • Jointly supported: NOAA and NSF Benefits to US: Leveraged resources, Continuation of ocean obs system, establishing important links between WCRP and IGBP, Carbon Cycle

  10. Climate Process & Modeling Teams (CPTs) Briefly Teams of theoreticians, observational scientists, diagnostic scientists, process modelers, coupled model, & data assimilation systems developers, organized to characterize & address systematic critical issues that limit progress in improving climate models. • NSF and NOAA AO (2003: ~$2.5M per year) to address critical issues in comprehensive climate models • Three Pilot CPTs established to demonstrate the concept: • Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity • Ocean mixing in overflow regions (e.g. over steep topography) • Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing

  11. U.S. CLIVAR Organization - formerly CLIVAR Inter-Agency Group CLIVAR SSC US CLIVAR Office Atlantic Region International CLIVAR Project Office Pan-American Region Implementation Panels Pacific Region Linked to corresponding Int’l CLIVAR body Seasonal to Interannual Modeling and Prediction Southern Ocean Sector CLIVAR/PAGES CLIVAR/SEARCH Working Groups Asian-Australian Monsoon

  12. US CLIVAR ExComm IAG - Program Managers & Administrators Lisa Goddard - IRI Alex Hall - UCLA Sumant Nigam - UMd John Marshall - MIT Meghan Cronin-PMEL Paul Schopf - GMU Int’l CLIVAR panels Working Group Working Group Working Group U.S. CLIVAR: Who are we? US CLIVAR Committee U.S. CLIVAR Office Committee Predictability, Predictions & Applications Interface (PPAI) Panels Phenomenology, observations, & synthesis (POS) Process studies & model improvement (PSMI) Working Groups

  13. U.S. CLIVAR Inter-Agency Group (IAG) • Scientific and programmatic support from NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DOE • $70++ million in competed research relevant to CLIVAR • ??M in directed resources… • NASA, NOAA, and NSF support the U.S. and international CLIVAR offices and committee infrastructure Jay Fein Eric Itsweire Eric Lindstrom Don Anderson Anjuli Bamzai Jim Todd Mike Patterson Jin Huang Mike Johnson Ming Ji Peter Schultz

  14. Q4.1: To what extent can uncertainties in model projections due to climate system feedbacks be reduced? 5 Observations, modeling, and other elements of CCSP plans CCSP Questions and Number of Milestones Reorganized US CLIVAR Climate Variability and Change Q4.3: What is the likelihood of abrupt climate changes such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception of a decades long mega-drought, or rapid melting of the major ice sheets? 5 Q4.4: How are extreme events, such as droughts, floods, wildfires, heat waves, and hurricanes, related to climate variability and change? 5 Q4.5: How can information on climate variability and change be most efficiently developed, integrated with non-climatic knowledge, and communicated in order to best serve societal needs? 8

  15. Process Studies and Model Improvement Panel (PSMIP) GOALS (a work in progress)… : • Reduce major systematic errors and biases and uncertainties in GCMs used for climate variability prediction and climate change projection (2) Use process studies to quantify climatically important processes and to provide guidance for extending long-term in situ and satellite observations • Ensure that process studies lead to climate model improvement Questions for the workshop • What are major systematic model biases/errors wrt decadal variability in today’s climate models? What processes and climate features must be better parameterized/incorporated/understood to insure models capture decadal variability? What studies (and obs) are needed to parameterize these processes? How do we make maximum use of field study investments to advance modeling capabilities?

  16. Phenomenology, Observations, and Synthesis Panel (POSP) GOALS (a work very much in progress)… • Advance understanding of coherent variability (“modes”, extremes, …) in present and future climate • Improve and develop data for climate studies (e.g. reanalyses) • Assess the role of the Indian Ocean in global climate • Improve surface fluxes • Assess processes controlling rapid climate shifts Questions for the workshop • What is decadal variability? What (mechanisms) cause it? Linkages between high and low latitudes? How does it change under changing climate? What coordinated modeling studies, diagnostics should be established to advance our understanding, test models, and how will this translate into better models? Gaps/needs in observations capabilities? How can climate scientists take better advantage of new observational capabilities (ocean salinity, satellite data, occultation, Indian ocean)? Role of Indian ocean in decadal variability…do we understand it now?

  17. Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface Panel (PPAIP) GOALS (a work in progress)… • Further fundamental understanding of climate predictability at time scales from seasonal to centennial • Improve prediction of droughts • Improve prediction of climate extremes and changes in extreme weather events • Improve prediction of monsoon systems • Characterize climate impacts on ecosystems at requisite spatial scales and response/feedback mechanisms • Enable use of CLIVAR science for decision support Questions for the workshop • Fully characterize current predictability of decadal variability? Ability to “nowcast” state of decadal variability? Predictability of forcings? Links between extreme events and decadal variability: sources, predictability? (future hurricane frequency?) Improving information accessible to decision makers who need decadal predictions?

  18. Further Questions • Has the case for predictability and predictions of decadal variability been adequately made, updated, and communicated? • What are the unique research needs of decadal variability? • More importantly, is this community taking full advantage of and fully engaged in planning and research activities in other parts of the climate research enterprise?

  19. Why am I here? • Update on US CLIVAR organization and thinking • Challenge this community…

  20. Question and Challenge to the Decadal Variability Workshop • Does this group wish to do more than meet every few years? • All climate research communities, including those (this group?) addressing decadal variability, need to justify continued investment in their research. • This decadal variability group should consider providing community-based input to US CLIVAR and interested agencies/programs.

  21. What now? • A community report/publication that articulates the need for continued research investment and the current challenges of decadal variability would be helpful • I encourage this group to initiate contact (through Paul Schopf, Jerry Meehl, & Tom Delworth) with US CLIVAR Panels so decadal variability issues can be carefully considered by the Panels

  22. Final Thoughts • No one can promise new resources… there is no new money (but there are always opportunities!) • No one in Washington wants lengthy plans, wish lists, or recommendations… • Welcome questions and comments

  23. Slides in reserve

  24. Emerging areas requiring more attention by WCRP • Sea-level change • Improving regional modeling and products for decision makers • Coordinating WCRP activities with other programs (e.g. Carbon Cycle) and disciplines • Assessing potential/predicting extreme events

  25. Modeling Groups • Working Group Coupled Modeling (WGCM) • Working Group Seasonal-Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) CMIP2 Global mean surface air temperature change Global mean precipitation change (after Covey et al., 2003). Benefits to US: Leveraged resources, Int’l coordination of modeling activities

  26. Critical Links for U.S. CLIVAR • Adding value & leveraging resources • Entrainment of results within operations • U.S. CCSP Contributions • Climate variability & change research • Observing systems • Application/decision support • International CLIVAR • Regional panels • WGCM, WGSIP,… • Other Int’l activities • WCRP • GEWEX • SPARC • CLiC • COPES • U.S. Operational and • Institutional Activities • NCEP, GFDL, IRI • GMAO, GISS • CCSM, PCMDI

  27. Variability of the American Monsoon System- VAMOS PLATIN - UNEP/GEF Supported Project for La Plata basin Benefits to US: Leveraged resources, development of S. American climate obs system, catalyzation of S. American climate research community

More Related