Decadal prediction

1. Decadal prediction • Scientific interest • Meetings and Workshops • Organizational aspects • WGSIP role and activities

2. WGCM/WGSIP and Decadal Predictability

3. International scientific interest

6. “Near-Term” (decadal) “Long-Term” (century & longer) prediction & predictability “realistic” CORE CORE (initialized ocean state) diagnostic TIER 1 TIER 1 TIER 2 CMIP5 Experiment Design

9. Active meeting and workshop schedule • OceanObs09 (Venice, Sept 09) • 8th Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability (Maryland, Oct 09) • Earth-System Initialization for Decadal Prediction (deBilt, Nov 09) • Predicting Climate of the Coming Decades (Miami, Jan 10) • WGSIP-13 (Buenos Aires, July 10) • Conference on Decadal Predictability (Triest, Aug, 10) • Workshop on Decadal Variability, Predictability and Predictions: understanding the role of the oceans (NCAR, Sept 10) • WGCM-14 (Exeter, Oct 10) • Seasonal to Multi-decadal Predictability of the Polar Climate (Bergen, Oct 10) • IPCC 1st LA Meeting (Kunming, Nov 10)

11. OceanObs09 Decadal White Papers

21. Decadal prediction • Scientific interest • Meetings and Workshops • Organizational aspects • focus • survey • panel • IPCC • WGSIP role and activities

31. PCMDI website

32. Decadal prediction focus? • current CLIVAR site is really very good but perhaps “focus” on decadal aspect? • links from/to WGSIP, WGCM, WGOMD plus PCMDI to a CLIVAR “decadal prediction” page? • currently under cross-cuts • lacks a “name” • what’s in a name? • “near-term” (decadal) hindcast/prediction simulations (!) • WCRP decadal prediction • CMIP5 near term experiments • …. • what should be in the name? • prediction or forecast (not simulation or experiment) • timescale (near term climate, decadal, …) • activity (project, intercomparison, …) • sponsor/identifier (WCRP, CLIVAR, CMIP5, …) • something like • CMIP5 Decadal Prediction Project (CDPP) or • CMIP5 Decadal Forecasting Project (CDFP) • …. • Does WGSIP want to make recommendations in this area (i.e. focus and name) ?

33. Organizational aspects of decadal prediction: survey • SIP community natural participants • Experience/ability in most needed aspects • IPCC-class models • initialization, ensemble generation • retrospective forecast methodology • forecast combination, calibration, skill measures … • (external forcing)

34. WGSIP-12 Meeting Report

35. (include them?) (CMIP)

36. should we survey both • other questions or • or keep it simple • suitable wrt CHFP timeline

37. Results of draft CHFP survey

38. CHFP action items? • data considerations critical • CIMA role • email for test data • timeline • what of data not sent to CIMA • EMSEMBLES • CCCma, IRI, … • role for BADC? • mirror CIMA • actively collect data from other above sites

39. Results of draft CDFP survey • Follow on activities … • complete survey • representative at WGCM meeting (Exeter, Oct.) • …

40. WGSIP-12 Meeting Report

41. Item 17: “panel” CMIP5-WGSIP-WGCM panel • At the Paris WGCM meeting a CMIP5-decadal Panel was struck consisting of Tim Stockdale and/or GJB (WGSIP), M. Latif, R. Stouffer (CMIP), G. Meehl (WGCM) • I have included K. Taylor in any interactions such as they are • So far, the actions of the Panel have consisted in some discussion of the treatment of volcano forcing for decadal prediction • resulted in a useful clarification • no other burning questions have arisen so far • Presume WGSIP is keen to entrain the seasonal/interannual prediction (SIP) community into CMIP5-decadal • very natural extension from SIP to seasonal/decadal (S2D) prediction • has useful experience

42. Email to CMIP5-WGSIP-WGCM panel • Suggesting potential actions which could be discussed at the upcoming WGSIP meeting in July: • to circulate an email to members of the community urging participation in CMIP5-decadal and pointing them to both the WGSIP and CMIP5 websites • to  feature an CMIP5-decadal link on the WGSIP (and perhaps other WGs’) front page(s) leading to some basic information and a link to the CMIP5 website • to note the existence of the CMIP5-decadal (i.e. CDFP) Panel as a contact point for questions in this area (at the moment Karl appears as the contact for all of CMIP5 on various web sites) • WGSIP may also discuss how we might contribute to  decadal studies in the areas of predictability, initialization, analysis and verification • Information you think the WG should be aware of or particular action they should consider taking?

43. WGCM (Meehl) suggests important activities in conjunction with WGSIP: • suggests WGSIP can provide guidance on how to evaluate the decadal hindcasts, • experience in how to use hindcasts to evaluate predictions in the SI community • ENSO hindcast activities as a possible template.   • important input for Ch 11 of the AR5 • notes potential Aspen Workshop next summer: • synthesis paper on decadal hindcasts-predictions for assessment by Ch 11, IPCC

45. data questions and other technical questions mainly for CMIP5 will forward “science” questions he receives to Panel (Latif: thanks for update … was panel officially established?) Possible follow up … Survey WGSIP subgroup on “standard” analysis/verification applications (?) …. offer input to Aspen workshop perhaps … CMIP5 (Taylor) responds

46. WGSIP and the IPCC

47. WGSIP recommendations for Chapter 11? Title: Near-term climate prediction • long timescales in climate system • forced and internally generated • predictability studies and results • predictability as a feature of the physical system • "skill" as our ability to correctly predict • review of decadal scale predictability studies and implications • decadal forecast skill • past studies but especially from CMIP5-decadal (CDFP) • forecast combination, calibration, verification • skill measures (deterministic and probabilistic)  • predictions 2015-25 etc.  (NOT projections dammit) • from CMIP5-decadal • deterministic and probabilistic • in the context of past skill • naturally includes regions - not a separate topic       • summary

48. WGSIP recommendations for Chapter 11? The outline's last three topics: • Atmospheric composition and air quality • Possible effects of geoengineering • Quantification of the range of climate change projections • We will have few if any near term “forecasts" or "predictability studies" of: • atmospheric composition and air quality • effects of geoengineering • The "quantification" of decadal predictions (NOT long term projections) is already, and properly, part of the "forecast skill" • don't need it as a separate topic • don't want to make claims about Chapter 12 far-term climate projections • Does WGSIP have (should WGSIP have) recommendations for the organization of Chapter 11?

49. WGSIP decadal actions? • survey community • as to status of CHFP and CDFP • post results on website • data, workshop implications for CHFP • CLIVAR site focus on “CDFP” • links with and to WGSIP, WGCM, WGOMD sites • (note CMIP5-decadal Panel as a contact point) • make comments/recommendations as to: • methods, validation, evaluation, scores etc. • IPCC Chapter 11 (topics, treatment..)

50. end of presentation