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National River Forecast Verification System NOAA Science Advisory Board Meeting July 16, 2003 Gary Carter Director, Of

National River Forecast Verification System NOAA Science Advisory Board Meeting July 16, 2003 Gary Carter Director, Office of Hydrologic Development. Verification of River Stage Forecasts . Started April 2001 for 194 locations nationwide Data archived at each River Forecast Center

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National River Forecast Verification System NOAA Science Advisory Board Meeting July 16, 2003 Gary Carter Director, Of

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  1. National River Forecast Verification SystemNOAA Science Advisory Board Meeting July 16, 2003 Gary CarterDirector, Office of Hydrologic Development

  2. Verification of River Stage Forecasts Started April 2001 for 194 locations nationwide Data archived at each River Forecast Center Mean Absolute Error (MAE) results stratified by: Flow Level - above and below flood stage Forecast Lead Time - 6 to 72 hours River Response to Rainfall - fast, intermediate, and slow Note: more robust verification methodology will be introduced, data points are not statistically independent

  3. River Forecasting Challenges: Conceptual Catchment Representation Rainfall Evapo- transpiration Infiltration Fast flow Soil moisture storage Slow flow Percolation Base flow Groundwater storage Total flow

  4. Above and Below Flood StageSample Sizes April 2001 to March 2003

  5. Below Flood Stage ForecastsMean Absolute Error (feet) April 2001 to March 2003

  6. Above Flood Stage ForecastsMean Absolute Error (feet) April 2001 to March 2003

  7. Summary of Verification Issues MAEs range from about 0.2 to 2.5 feet and generally increase with forecast lead time NWS River Forecast System performs well for locations below flood stage and for Slow rivers with 3 days, or more, delay between heavy rainfall and the crest (e.g., Ohio River at Evansville, IL) Intermediate Rivers with 1 - 2 days between heavy rainfall and crest (e.g., Russian River at Guerneville, CA) are difficult to forecast above flood stage: investigate impacts of improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and deploy high resolution hydrologic models

  8. On-going Projects Water Predictions for Life Decisions Probabilistic River Forecast Verification Methodology - University of Arizona Evaluation and Enhancement of River Forecast Verification Procedures – NWS PhD Dissertation

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