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Acceleration of the sea surface fCO2 growth rate in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (1993-2008).

CARBOOCEAN Final meeting, Bergen, 5-10/10/09. Acceleration of the sea surface fCO2 growth rate in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (1993-2008). N. Metzl, A Corbière, G. Reverdin, A.Lenton, T. Takahashi, A. Olsen, T. Johannessen, D. Pierrot, R. Wanninkhof ,

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Acceleration of the sea surface fCO2 growth rate in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (1993-2008).

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  1. CARBOOCEAN Final meeting, Bergen, 5-10/10/09 Acceleration of the sea surface fCO2 growth rate in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (1993-2008). N. Metzl, A Corbière, G. Reverdin, A.Lenton, T. Takahashi, A. Olsen, T. Johannessen, D. Pierrot, R. Wanninkhof , S. R. Ólafsdóttir, J. Olafsson and M. Ramonet

  2. …. Acceleration of the Atm. CO2 growth rate since 90s xCO2 from GlobalView 2009 Observing the decadal CO2 change in the ocean ?

  3. Air-Sea CO2 flux climatology (Takahashi et al, 2009) Global net flux: 2 (+/-1) PgC/yr Important improvement, but climatology is for a virtual (e.g. non ENSO) and fixed year (here 2000) What are the temporal variations of the ocean carbon sink ?

  4. ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? Sink decreases Sink increases Moving from the climatology to trends One global synthesis based on observations (CO2 fluxes) (adapted from Le Quéré et al., in rev, 2009) Different regions….different trends

  5. ???? ???? Sink decreases Sink increases Moving from the climatology to trends (1) A zoom in the North Atlantic (…Go game) (adapted from Le Quéré et al., in rev 2009) Different regions….different trends

  6. Moving from the climatology to trends (2) Another view in the North Atlantic (1990-2006) Schuster et al. DSR SOCOVV,2009

  7. pCO2 trend subpoplar gyre Annual trend in pCO2 (μatm/yr) between 1990 and 2006 Schuster et al. DSR SOCOVV,2009 Atmospheric growth rate Different regions….different trends The North Atlantic carbon sink decreases almost everywhere Clear signal in the subpolar gyre

  8. Sea Surface Temperature trends in 1990-2006 Schuster et al. DSR SOCOVV,2009 Different regions….different processes Main driver of oceanic fCO2 increase in 1990-2006: Warming in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

  9. Schuster et al. DSR ,2009 Another view of North Atlantic CO2 fluxes Different models….different trends CLIM ???….???

  10. Schuster et al. DSR 2009 ?????? Ocean CO2 trends in the North Atlantic Is the ocean CO2 sink still decreases in recent years (after 2006) ? Is warming/cooling always explains these changes ?

  11. CARBOOCEAN Final meeting, Bergen, 5-10/10/09 Acceleration of the sea surface fCO2 growth rate in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (1993-2008). N. Metzl, A Corbière, G. Reverdin, A.Lenton, T. Takahashi, A. Olsen, T. Johannessen, D. Pierrot, R. Wanninkhof , S. R. Ólafsdóttir, J. Olafsson and M. Ramonet

  12. Another view of the sea surface fCO2 changes Decadal variations in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre 1993-2008

  13. Original data, T,S DIC, TA used to calculate fCO2 Trends in winter

  14. Winter Trends in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Different periods ….different trends

  15. For recent years: comparing fCO2cal and fCO2mes fCO2 cal: 5-7 µatm/yr fCO2mes: 5-6 µatm/yr Olsen et al. Wanninkhof et al.

  16. Winter Trends in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre NO NAO link ? Drivers before and after 2003?

  17. Drivers ? …. Back to original data, T,S DIC, TA - + + - + + + + = + = + = - = -

  18. Different periods….different trends … different processes Drivers of the oceanic fCO2 trend d fCO2/ dt =(d fCO2 / d SST)(d SST/dt) + (d fCO2 / d SSS)(d SSS/ dt) + (d fCO2/ d DIC)(d DIC / d t) + (d fCO2/ d TA)(d TA / d t)

  19. Ratio DIC/TA: surface temporal changes and water column distribution North/South contrast Proposed scenario: rapid fCO2 increase in recent years linked to vertical mixing/convection (ARGO -Vage et al, 2008)

  20. Back to the first slide Acceleration of the Atm. CO2 growth rate xCO2 from GlobalView 2009 Observing the decadal CO2 change in the ocean ?

  21. North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Ocean versus atmospheric CO2 increase Ocean CO2 growth rate is faster than atmosphere The ocean sink decreases

  22. +6 µatm/yr +3 µatm/yr Warming Convection Evolution of oceanic and atmospheric CO2 in the North Atlantic Take home messages (1 fCO2 trends and processes) NO NAO Corbière et al. (2007), Metzl et al., (2009)

  23. Evolution of oceanic CO2 in the North Atlantic Take home message 2 (fCO2 and pH changes) Metzl, Unpublished

  24. Observed decadal changes of sea surface fCO2 (and fluxes) Different regions………….. Different trends Different inversions……… .Different trends Different periods………….. Different trends Different periods………….. Different processes Next: Investigate different data-set (LDEO – SOCAT) Investigate different ocean and coupled models …………………..work in (different ) progress

  25. (r) Evolutions of surface ocean CO2 After SOCOVV meeting, 2 data-bases !!!! Takahashi et al DSR 2009 > 3 Mdata SOCAT Under QC >7 Mdata

  26. Heat fluxes anomalies in winter (1999-2008) Vage et al. 2008

  27. Maximum winter mixed-layer in 2008 Vage et al. 2008

  28. 5yr 40 yr Temporal variations of Air-Sea CO2 fluxes recent past, present and future Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Models (source, T.Roy LSCE/IPSL)

  29. Need to validate the temporal trends CCCC Models (source, T.Roy LSCE/IPSL)

  30. Air-Sea CO2 flux based on atmospheric CO2 data Nm 8/3/09

  31. Global Ocean Air-sea CO2 flux ????? 8/3/09

  32. Annual trend in pCO2 (μatm/yr) between 1990 and 2006 Schuster et al. DSR SOCOVV,2009 pCO2 trend subpoplar gyre Atmospheric growth rate The North Atlantic carbon sink decreases almost everywhere Clear signal in the subpolar gyre

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