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INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN PRESENTATION TO NCCC 27 JULY 2012

INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN PRESENTATION TO NCCC 27 JULY 2012. Department of Energy. Contents. High Level Approach Objectives of the Integrated Energy Plan Demand Modeling Approach Optimisation Model Key Policy Questions High Level Work Plan. HIGH-LEVEL APPROACH. HIGH-LEVEL APPROACH.

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INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN PRESENTATION TO NCCC 27 JULY 2012

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  1. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN PRESENTATION TO NCCC 27 JULY 2012 Department of Energy

  2. Contents • High Level Approach • Objectives of the Integrated Energy Plan • Demand Modeling Approach • Optimisation Model • Key Policy Questions • High Level Work Plan

  3. HIGH-LEVEL APPROACH

  4. HIGH-LEVEL APPROACH

  5. MODELLING SYSTEM Supply Optimisation (Least cost, emissions and water) Test Cases Demand Projections • HIGH-LEVEL APPROACH • Energy planning is an iterative process which entails many feedback loops between the various stages • 1) A mechanism of dealing with quantitative (data-driven) as well as qualitative (expert judgement) analysis • 2) A parallel consideration of each of the following elements: • Existing and future energy technologies and energy carriers • Existing and proposed policies within government which have a high-impact on the energy sector • Key Indicators outside of control which characterise current and future uncertainties • Conflicting criteria upon which different options/alternatives should be evaluated HIGH-LEVEL APPROACH MODEL OUTPUT (ENERGY RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS) EVALUATE MODEL OUTPUT AND POLICY PROPOSALS (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis) RECOMMENDATIONS RES (Technologies, Energy Carriers, Energy Services) Base Case Existing High-Impact Policies and Legislation Proposed/ New High-Impact Policies and Policy Options Key Policy Questions Key Indicators Plausible Futures to deal with Key Uncertainties Key Criteria for Evaluating Alternate Options

  6. Identifying the IEP objectives These are further broken down into criteria.

  7. The criteria are: Organising the criteria and objectives in this way facilitates scoring the options on the criteria and examining the overall results at the level of the objectives.

  8. Energy commodities and other materials constrained by availability of local natural resources and international markets Technology costs, life spans, efficiencies, discount rate and emission factors Demand for Energy services driven by socio-economic needs and desires Heat Coal Hot water Energy system: Technology value chains which convert energy commodities into useful energy services Crude oil Light Natural gas Mechanical work Solar energy Refrigeration Uranium Transport Environmental constraints Wind … Energy systems and their context …

  9. IRP Energy System

  10. IEP Energy carriers Electricity demand Energy Services Resource extraction/imports Refining Industrial processes Electricity Generation Demand technologies

  11. Modelling tools • There is more value derived from modelling processes than the final results as the process increases our understanding of energy systems • Energy demand models • Macro-economic drivers as input • Determine demand for energy services (heating, lighting, transport…) • Energy supply optimisation model • Macro-economic drivers as input • Use demand derived from demand models • Minimises the cost of the energy system for demand based on constraints

  12. Energy Demand in South Africa This what we collect This what we need for the IEP

  13. Total Energy Services (303805 TJ) Total Energy Carriers (303805 TJ)

  14. Overview of Demand Models (112)

  15. Bottom Up Approach

  16. Total Projected Energy Consumption in Residential

  17. Residential Sector

  18. Residential Sector-Demand Energy Services

  19. Components of the modelling system User interfaces/template Automated spread sheets for reporting Data capture and management Model execution Results analysis Optimisation model data and demands Linear program (OSeMOSYS) Demand models Results tables Demand model data Linear program solver (GLPK) Database Model data tables Data collection (CSIR-Promethium Carbon, Eskom, DOE) Manual processes Automated processes Demand models (DOE, Eskom) Data tools and integration (DOE) OSeMOSYS enhancements (CSIR) Third party software

  20. Typical results from modelling 31 July 201223

  21. Typical results from modelling

  22. Typical results from modelling

  23. Typical results from modelling

  24. Base case Overall modelling process Optimised energy system 3 Optimised energy system 2 Test case 1 Forecast based on trends Implemented policy Optimised energy system 0 Achieves desired outcomes for base case Optimised energy system 1 Achieves desired outcomes for test case 1 Reference Energy System Reference Energy System with modified parameters Test case 3 Plausible future Policy options Modelling system Test case 2 Plausible future Plausible futures Recommendations The test case which produces the least cost energy system while achieving the desired outcomes suggests the most effective policies

  25. DEFINITIONS

  26. Main Policy Question

  27. Policy Question

  28. Policy Question

  29. Non-Quantitative Analysis of Policy Options Policy options not necessarily informed by outputs from energy models (Specific modelling requirements may be considered for future iterations of IEP)

  30. HIGH-LEVEL WORKPLAN

  31. HIGH-LEVEL WORKPLAN

  32. THANK YOU

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