Integrated Assessment of Air pollution effects on biodiversity

1. Modelling and mapping of critical loads of heavy metals and their exceedances under the LRTAP Convention Integrated Assessment of Air pollution effects on biodiversity Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Max Posch, Jaap Slootweg (www.mnp.nl) Gert Jan Reinds (www.alterra.wur.nl)

2. Proposed Outline • Integrated Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)

3. Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)

4. Winds (Atmosph. Transport) Emissions (driving forces and pressures) Deposition (impacts on human health and Ecosystems) Source: Adapted from “Pollution Atmospherique”, 1999… (?)

5. Integrated Environmental Assessment Driving Forces Pressure State Impact Policy response

6. Approximative illustration of multi-pollutant multi-effect relationships Pressures State Impacts Drivers Response Critical loads SO emissions S deposition Surface waters 2 for acidification Terrestrial eco systems Critical loads NH emissions N deposition 3 for nitrogen Critical levels NO emissions O formation Crops x 3 for ozone Secondary Health VOC emissions aerosols guidelines O3 Human health Primary Life Single and Energy PM emissions particles expectancy multiple Critical loads of h. metals CH emissions pollutant 4 Agriculture emission CO emissions 2 Industrial controls production Radiative N O emissions Climate 2 forcing/GWP HFC emissions PFC emissions SF emissions 6

7. Integrated Environmental Assessment (RAINS model) Optimization Emission control Economic Environmental policies activities targets NH control 3 NH emissions NH dispersion Agriculture 3 3 & costs Critical loads SO control 2 SO emissions S dispersion Energy use 2 f. acidification & costs Critical loads f. NO control x NO dispersion NO emissions x x eutrophication & costs Critical levels NO /VOC Transport O formation x for ozone 3 control&costs VOC emissions O Population Solvents, fuels, VOC control 3 Secondary exposure industry & costs aerosols PM Population Primary PM Primary PM PM control Other activities exposure emissions dispersion & costs Environmental Emission impacts control costs Scenario analysis Source: IIASA

8. Focus of this presentation Impact Driving Forces Pressure State Abatement Scenarios

9. Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)

10. Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution

11. Winds (Atmosph. Transport) Emissions (driving forces and pressures) How much deposition Is acceptable ? Source: Adapted from “Pollution Atmospherique”, 1999… (?)

12. Acidification effects in Jizera mountains, including the need for anticipated management and clearcutting 1976 1995

13. How much deposition is acceptable… …to avoid adverse effects of air pollution to the sustainability of our natural environment ?: The concept of critical loads !

14. Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)

15. Definition of critical loads and objectives • In general: • a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge • For heavy metals: • The critical load of a heavy metal is the highest total metal input rate (g ha-1 a-1) below which harmful effects on human health and ecosystems will not occur in an infinite time perspective, according to present knowledge • Objective of the “critical load approach” in integrated environmental assessment: Deposition should not exceed critical loads to avoid harmful effects to a sustainable natural environment. Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human Well-being.

16. Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human Well-being Source: Millenium Ecosyst. Assessment http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.359.aspx.ppt#8

17. Indicators of heavy metal impacts used to calculate critical loads Source: Slootweg J, Hettelingh J-P, Posch M, Schütze G, Spranger T, De Vries W, Reinds GJ, Van ’t Zelfde M, Dutchak S, Ilyin I (2007) Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus 7:371-377

18. Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)

19. Methodology for the computation of critical loads: Steady State Mass Balance (SSMB) For the comutation of CL(M) = critical load of metal M Mgu = Metal uptake Mle = Metal leaching Source: Reinds, 2008.

20. Metal Uptake • Metal uptake was computed as tree growth × metal content in wood. • Metal content was obtained from the Mapping Manual • Forest growth was obtained from the EFISCEN database for Europe and from published data (e.g. Alexeyev, Markov & Birdsey 2004 for Russia) for the other countries Source: Reinds (2008)

21. Critical concentrations and leaching • Metal leaching was computed as critical metal concentration × water flux • Critical metal concentrations are listed in the Mapping Manual as a function of pH and DOC concentration class • pH was obtained using soil type from the soil map and additional soil profile data bases. DOC was obtained using a transfer function as suggested in the Mapping Manual Source, Reinds (2008)

22. Georeferenced information is needed as input tothe steady state mass balance equation • Soil maps: (European Soil Data Base v2 polygon map 1:1 M for Europe and Russia; FAO Soil map 1:5 M) • Landcover Maps: LRTAP land cover map (100 m cells); Global Land Cover 2000 map (1 km cells) • Forest growth regions (EFISCEN, Russian Regions, EECCA countries) Map overlay yields 3.8 M units with forest or other natural vegetation, 1.3 M of which > 1km2 Source: Reinds (2008)

23. Maps of input parameters Soil LandUse EMEP Overlay Source: Reinds (2008)

24. Critical load of Cadmium to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Cd deposition Source: Reinds (2008)

25. Critical load of Mercury to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Hg deposition Source: Reinds (2008)

26. Critical load of lead to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Pb deposition Source: Reinds (2008)

27. Critical load to protect 95% of natural systems Public health endpoints Biological endpoints Critical load of Cadmium 5th percentile CL(Cd) to protect Ecosystems (g ha-1 a-1) 5th percentile CL(Cd) to protect human health (g ha-1 a-1) Critical load of lead 5th percentile CL(Pb) to protect Ecosystems (g ha-1 a-1) 5th percentile CL(Pb) to protect human health (g ha-1 a-1) Critical load of Mercury 5th percentile CL(Hg) to protect Ecosystems (g ha-1 a-1) 5th percentile CL(Hg) to protect human health (g ha-1 a-1)

28. Similar georeferenced input is required for the computation ofcritical loads for acidification

29. Critical loads for acidification Source: Reinds (2008)

30. Collaboration with EECCA experts and scientists is required to review and revise geographical data on critical loads and model input data !

31. Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Example Scenarios: Current Legislation (CLE) Full Implementation of the Protocol (FI) Full Implementation of the Protocol plus Additional Measures (FIAM)

32. Areas at risk of health or ecosystem effects in 2000 based on Official Emission data incl. TNO adjustments (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow)

33. Areas where deposition of lead and mercury Exceed critical loads (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow) At risk of lead deposition At risk of mercury deposition

34. Tentative results of the risk of the deposition of chromium, nickel, copper,zinc, arsenic and selenium in Europe (excl. EECCA)(depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow)

35. Conclusions and recommendations • The effect oriented approach helps to set comprehensive targets emission reductions to protect human health and biodiversity and ecosystem functions • Thus, critical loads were used to support the Oslo protocol (1994) and Gothenburg protocol (1999) under the LRTAP Convention • Collaboration with experts and scientists of EECCA Parties to the LRTAP Convention is needed to improve knowledge on requirements for the protection of human health, biodiversity and ecosystem fuctions against effects of air pollution • Preliminar national data files and models can be obtained by NFCs in EECCA countries from the Coordination Centre for Effects of the ICP Modelling and Mapping. • Collaborative projects between National Focal Centres in EECCA countries and other institutions such as EMEP MSC-E, MSC-W and the EMEP Centre for Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling (CIAM) is recommended.

36. Further information and publications: • Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) (www.mnp.nl/cce) • International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping (www.icpmapping.org)