Transboundary Air Pollution and related Integrated Assessment Modelling Tiziano Pignatelli

1. Transboundary Air Pollution and related Integrated Assessment Modelling Tiziano Pignatelli Enea – Atmospheric Pollution Unit pignatelli@casaccia.enea.it

2. Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution • The transboundary nature of the air pollution was approached for the first time in the sixties, when the problem of acidification in Scandinavian lakes came out. • Today it is recognized and scientifically proved that pollutants are transported in the atmosphere for thousands of kms and affect the environment and people health at great distance from the place they are generated. • In order to prevent and/or limit damages to the environment and the human health the Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention of UN was signed in Geneva in 1979 (UN CLRTAP).

3. The LRTAP Convention of the United Nations • 50 Contries, the Parties to the Convention, haveratified the CLRTAP, till now (Europe, Asia, North America). • CLRTAP has been the first International Treaty, dealing with the Atmospheric Pollution, on a geographical scale well beyond the national borders, legally binding for the Parties, who are committed to take actions to reduce the pollutant emissions. • Hundreds of scientists and experts work within the several scientific bodies of CLRTAP to provide the scientific base underpinning the policy decisions. • Web-address: http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/welcome.html

4. The LRTAP Convention of the United Nations

5. The Protocols of the CLRTAP • CLRTAP comprises 8 implementation Protocols, dealing with different pollutants, through which quantified reduction targets and related obligations for the Parties are established. • Each one of the Protocols, is individual International Treaties, as such, they must be ratified by the National Parliaments of the Parties to the Convention, so that they become Parties to the Protocol. • The Protocols, are regularly revised after their entry into force, to assess the efficacy of the provisions and therefore improve the mechanism toward the achievement of the targets.

6. The Protocols of the CLRTAP • The 1999 Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone; 20 Parties. Entered into force on 17 May 2005. • The 1998 Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs); 28 Parties. Entered into force on 23 October 2003. • The 1998 Protocol on Heavy Metals; 27 Parties. Entered into force on 29 December 2003. • The 1994 Protocol on Further Reduction of Sulphur Emissions; 27 Parties. Entered into force 5 August 1998. • The 1991 Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds or their Transboundary Fluxes; 21 Parties. Entered into force 29 September 1997. • The 1988 Protocol concerning the Control of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes; 31 Parties. Entered into force 14 February 1991. • The 1985 Protocol on the Reduction of Sulphur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 per cent; 22 Parties. Entered into force 2 September 1987. • The 1984 Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP); 41 Parties. Entered into force 28 January 1988.

7. The Gothenburg Protocol of the CLRTAP • In particular, with the Gothenburg Protocol (1999) a new multi-pollutant approach has been introduced,for a comprehensive consideration of the acidification, euthrophication and ground level ozone issues. • The Gothenburg Protocol (1999) implies simultaneous reductions of emissions for SO2, NOx, NH3, and VOC pollutants, with specific target emission levels for each Party, at 2010. • The full implementation of the Protocol, at 2010, is expected to lead to significant reductions in emission levels (-63% for SO2, -41% for NOx, -40% for VOC, -17% for NH3).

8. The CLRTAP Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling • The target setting and the policy assessment are scientifically supported by the use o proper models, through which the emission reduction potential, the efficacy of abatement technologies, the abatment costs, the effects on the environment and the human health, are carefully assessed. • The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM), main subject of the Task Force on IAM, (TFIAM) is the main instrument to pursue the above objectives.

9. Integrated Assessment Modelling • The Integrated Assessment Modelling flow chart, applied to the Air Pollution, is shown below:

10. Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) • The Centre for the Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM), a scientific body of CLRTAP has the mandate to carry out analyses with the IAM Models • The Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model, developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), has been adopted to carry out the modelling exercise. • The RAINS model is also used for the purposes of Policy Development by the European Commission, within the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Program.

11. The RAINS Integrated Assessment Model • The RAINS simplified flow chart, is shown below: Input Output Emission scenarios Cost Curves Deposition and Concentration maps Impact on Environment and Health Economic Activities Energy Scenario RAINS CONTROL STRATEGY Abatement technologies

12. Example of SO2, Emission Scenario calculated by RAINS (FromIIASA documentation)

13. Example of Cost Curve, calculated by the RAINS Model (FromIIASA documentation)

14. Example of map of acid deposition, calculated by the RAINS Model (FromIIASA documentation)

15. Example of impact of particulate matter (PM2.5) on human life 2000 2020 2020 Current legislationMax. feas. reductions Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5. Calculations for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM (FromIIASA documentation)

16. Example of impact of ground level ozone on human life 20002020 2020 Current legislationMax. feas. reductions Grid average concentrations Calculations for 1997 meteorology (FromIIASA documentation)

17. The extention of the RAINS Model to GHGs Future developments of RAINS toward: GAINS: GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies Extension of RAINS integrated assessment model for air pollution to GHGs CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6 in addition to SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM Country-by-country, 43 regions in Europe, up to 2030 (FromIIASA presentation at the Conference of the Parties COP10 December, 2004)

18. Conclusions • Transboundary Air Pollution is addressed in a wide international context • Sophisticated and powerful modelling tools are available to deeply analyze and quantify the Transboundary Air Pollutionand predict its effects on the environment the human health • The modelling tools are evolving toward a more and more integrated approach to provide the policy makers with the most comprehensive and multi-aspect (sources, effects, costs etc.) view of the problem • Significant positive results have been achieved in the past decades, in reducing the damages caused by the Transboundary Air Pollution