Fertility decline in Uzbekistan:

1. Fertility decline in Uzbekistan: persistent early motherhood during economic crisis David Clifford, University of Southampton dmc104@soton.ac.uk

3. Central Asia’s demographic interest • Muslim population invites comparisons with the demography of the Arab Middle East (Rashad 2000), or with Iran (Hakimian 2006) • Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991 • Dramatic social, political and economic changes • Countries of FSU - ‘rich material’ for examining the impact of these changes on fertility behaviour (Agadjanian 1999:426)

4. Central Asia ‘neglected’ in fertility transition literature (Barbieri et al. 1996:69, Agadjanian 1999)

5. Post-socialist fertility change • Have to rely on literature on C and E European experience • dramatic decreases in fertility (Sobotka 2004 Fig 7.1)

6. How was this fertility decline achieved? • Sobotka (2004) – diversity of experience • Central Europe: • postponement; ‘ageing’ of fertility • Low TFR1 • TFR decline largely driven by tempo effects • Ex-Soviet: • retained early pattern of first births • High TFR1, dramatic decline at higher orders (e.g. Perelli-Harris 2005-Ukraine) • TFR decline reflects change in fertility quantum

7. Reasons for decline? • Economic crisis vs. new opportunities/ values • Sobotka (2004)-importance varies • C Europe- impact of new opportunities • Post-Soviet –impact of economic crisis • Relationship between extent of crisis and extent of postponement: • Severe crisis: ‘slower deconstruction of socialist greenhouse environment’ (Sobotka 2002:61)

8. Wages-postponement relationship (Sobotka 2004, Fig.7.11) (Uzbekistan: 81.1% decline in real wages)

9. Sources: UNICEF Transmonee, ORC Macro TFR in Uzbekistan, 1990-2003

10. Source: UNICEF Transmonee Economic Crisis in Uzbekistan Source: UNICEF TransMonee

11. post-Soviet Uzbekistan Expectation of maintained early age pattern of births during fertility decline

12. Data • Official fertility data unreliable • Surveys most helpful • Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey, 2002 • Part of Demographic and Health Survey project • Nationally Representative • 5588 women, aged 15-49

13. Source: Analysis of UHES (2002) Period: change in MAFM and MAFB Trends • I.e. maintenance of early childbearing.

14. Source: Analysis of UHES (2002) Period: Trends in ASFR

15. Source: Analysis of UHES (2002) Cohort: Age at First Marriage Results

16. Cohort: Age at First Birth Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

17. Cohort: Cumulated fertility Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)

18. Economic crisis and fertility decline • Economic crisis specifically reducing higher order births in Uzbekistan • First order births not affected by postponement • a strategy for uncertainty reduction? ‘impetus for parenthood the greatest amongst those whose alternative pathways for reducing uncertainty are blocked’ - Friedman et al (1994) • Women with no prospect of pursuing education or employment may choose to have children early (Sobotka 2002, Perelli-Harris 2005)

19. Too simplistic to consider economic crisis alone.. Conservative attitudes; re-emergence of Islam? • May have role to play in persistence of early motherhood; less so in stopping behaviour

20. An unfair comparison..? ..with post-socialist change in C and E Europe? • At time of independence • C Asia –high fertility • Vs C and E Europe - low fertility • Different culture, history, level of development On the other hand, despite these differences.. • post-Soviet countries have tended to maintain early age pattern of first birth • Well documented (Perelli-Harris 2005, Steshenko 2000 – Ukraine, Bulgaru et al. 2000 – Moldova, Ivanov and Echenique (2000) – Russia) • Specifically those countries most affected by economic crisis

21. Source: Analysis of UHES (2002) Period: change in MAFM and MAFB Trends • I.e. maintanance of early childbearing.

22. MAFB in Central and Eastern Europe FSU

23. Just another developing country transition? • Not an unusual pattern of fertility decline • Just another developing country experiencing decline? • Substantive reasons to doubt it, particularly 1990-7 • lack of modernisation • ‘Gendered’ post-socialist transition • Declines in education • Mason (1997)- different fertility declines have different causes. Different stories of change

24. e-mail: dmc104@soton.ac.uk References Agadjanian, V (1999) Post-soviet demographic paradoxes: Ethnic differences in marriage and fertility in Kazakhstan.Sociological Forum. 14(3): 425-446. Barbieri M, Blum A, Dolkigh E and Ergashev A (1996) Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan Population Studies 50:69-88 Bulgaru M, Bulgaru O, Sobotka T and Zeman K. (2000). Past and present population development in the Republic of Moldova, in Kučera T, Kučerová O, Opara O and Schaich E (eds.) New Demographic Faces of Europe. Berlin: Springer, pp. 221-246. Friedman, D, Hechter M, et al. (1994). A theory of the value of children Demography 31(3): 375-401. Hakimian, H (2006) From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s. Development and Change 37(3): 571-597. Ivanov, S and Echenique V (2000) Demographic Situation and Mortality Trends in Russia. in T. Kučera, O Kučerová, O Opara and E Schaich (eds). New demographic faces of Europe: the changing population dynamics in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Springer. Mason K O (1997) Explaining Fertility Transitions Demography 34(4):443-454 Perelli-Harris (2005) The path to lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. Population Studies 59(1):55-70. Rashad, H (2000) Demographic Transition in Arab Countries: a New Perspective Journal of Population Research 17(1): 83-101. Sobotka, T (2002) Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries. Population Research Centre Working Paper Series 02-01. Sobotka, T (2004) Postponement of childbearing and low fertility in Europe. Dutch University Press. UNICEF (2005) TransMONEE Database, UNICEF IRC, Florence.

25. How was this fertility decline achieved?ASFR, 1989 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)

26. How was this fertility decline achieved?ASFR, 2000 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)