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Perspectives on Major Markets Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference - 2006 Tiffany Urness Research Ma

Perspectives on Major Markets Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference - 2006 Tiffany Urness Research Manager, California Tourism October 12, 2006. California Tourism 2005. In-State: 279.8 M 80%. Out-of-state: 55.5 M 16%. Int’l: 14.4 M 4%.

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Perspectives on Major Markets Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference - 2006 Tiffany Urness Research Ma

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  1. Perspectives on Major Markets Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference - 2006 Tiffany Urness Research Manager, California Tourism October 12, 2006

  2. California Tourism2005 In-State: 279.8 M 80% Out-of-state: 55.5 M 16% Int’l: 14.4 M 4% Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM CIC Research; California Tourism Research

  3. 2005 = Banner year for California tourism.

  4. 2005 in Review US CA Total domestic travel + 4.1% + 6.7% Domestic leisure + 3.2% + 7.1% Domestic business + 6.8% + 5.6% Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  5. 2005 in Review US CA Overseas visitors +6.9% + 14.3% Hotel occupancy rates + 2.9% + 3.8% RevPAR + 8.4% + 10.1% Domestic air travelers + 4.1% + 2.6% Source:CIC Research Inc., Smith Travel Research; Bureau of Transportation Statistics

  6. Domestic Markets

  7. California Domestic Market Share(% US Person-Stays) Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  8. CA Domestic Volume by Segment(Millions of Person-Stays) Non-Resident Business Non-Resident Leisure Resident Business Resident Leisure Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  9. CA Resident Leisure Volume(Millions of Person-Stays) Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  10. CA Non-Resident Leisure Volume(Millions of Person-Stays) Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  11. Dynamics Affecting California Travel Trends • Headline Events • Market Conditions • California Competitiveness

  12. 2006 Travel Industry YTD Headline Events • Relative normality • Restrictions, regulations, and rudeness

  13. 2006 Travel Industry YTD Market Conditions Higher prices Tapering demand

  14. 2006 Travel Industry YTD TIA Aug.Travel Price Index + 6.2% Gasoline + 19.6% Lodging + 4.8% Airfares + 5.8% Source: TIA.org, August 2006

  15. Vehicle Miles Driven Vs. Regular Gas Prices U.S., % change year ago Gas Prices (R) Vehicle Miles Driven (L) Sources: Department of Transportation,Oil Price Information Service 

  16. California Hotel Room Rates Vs. Occupancy % change year ago Average Room Rate Occupancy, percentage point difference Source: Smith Travel Research;Moody'sEconomy.com

  17. California Hotel Room Rates Vs. Occupancy Average Room Rate (R) % change year ago Trendline Occupancy Rate (L) Source: Smith Travel Research

  18. 2006 Travel Industry YTD August YTD US room revenues + 6.8% US average occupancies + 1.1% CA room revenues + 8.2% CA average occupancies + 1.1% Month of August - 1.0% Source: Smith Travel Research

  19. Revenue Passenger Air Miles U.S., % change year ago International Domestic Source: Air TransportAssociation

  20. Arizona Nevada Texas Oregon Washington 9.1 million 7.4 4.0 3.4 2.7 Feeder Markets: Top States( 2005 Person-Stays) Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  21. 4.4 million 4.0 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 Phoenix Las Vegas Yuma Tucson Reno New York Portland Feeder Markets: Top Metro Markets( 2005 Person-Stays) Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  22. % change year ago Fares From Phoenix Trips From Phoenix Air Travel Vs. Air Fares To CaliforniaFrom Phoenix Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey

  23. Air Travel Vs. Air Fares To CaliforniaFrom Las Vegas % change year ago Fares From Las Vegas Trips From Las Vegas Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey

  24. Air Travel Vs. Air Fares To CaliforniaFrom Portland % change year ago Fares From Portland Trips From Portland Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey

  25. Air Travel Vs. Air Fares To CaliforniaFrom New York % change year ago Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey Fares From New York Trips From New York Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey

  26. Air Travel Vs. Air Fares To California from Seattle % change year ago Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey Fares From Seattle Trips From Seattle Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey

  27. Air Travel Vs. Air Fares To CaliforniaFrom Chicago % change year ago Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey Fares From Chicago Trips From Chicago Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, O&D Survey

  28. UK Germany Japan Australia International Markets 81% Canada Mexico

  29. Mexico (Air/Land) 3,796,000 Day visitors 4,800,000 Canada 1,060,000 UK 778,000 Japan 722,000 Australia 313,000 Germany 309,000 Top CA International Markets(2005) Source: CIC Research Inc.

  30. California Visitors: Estimates based on in-flight surveys of non US residents reporting a California visit, supplemented with DHS data. International Visitors Vs Arrivals California Arrivals: Non US residents arriving in California as their first US port of entry.

  31. Int’l Visitors Vs Arrivals at California Ports of Entry(Percent Chg 04-05) Visitors Arrivals Total Overseas 14.3% 5.8% China 44.6% 21.7% Mexico (Air) 21.3% 14.0% Australia 20.8% 10.6% So. Korea -7.7% 2.0% Japan 14.6% -5.0% UK 12.3% 2.1% France 21.4% 19.8% Germany 12.4% 8.4% Source: DHS Port of entry arrivals, Form I-94; CIC Research Inc.

  32. Value of U.S. Dollar Vs. Foreign Currencies Index: January 2003 = 100 Euro Peso Yen Pound Canadian $ Source: The Federal Reserve Board

  33. Canadian Travel Vs Exchange Rates Source: Fedgazette, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, July 2006

  34. Value of Euro VS German Arrivals in CA Index: January 2003 = 100 Euro German Arrivals Source: Federal Reserve Board; DHS Port of entry arrivals, Form I-94

  35. CA Overseas Visitor Market Share1994 - 2005 Source: CIC Research Inc.

  36. European Visitors to California(1999-2005) Source: CIC Research Inc.

  37. Asian Visitors to California(1999-2005) 1999 2005 Source: CIC Research Inc.

  38. International Visitors Entering CA*(Percent Chg 05-06 July YTD Prelim.) *Port of Entry Arrivals -13.3% -14.9% Source: DHS Port of entry arrivals, Form I-94

  39. All Overseas Arrivals in CA* % change year ago *Port of Entry Arrivals Source: DHS Port of entry arrivals, Form I-94

  40. Asian Arrivals in CA* % change year ago *Port of Entry Arrivals Source: DHS Port of entry arrivals, Form I-94

  41. European Arrivals in CA* % change year ago *Point of Entry Arrivals Source: DHS Port of entry arrivals, Form I-94

  42. Australia and Mexican Air Arrivals in CA* % change year ago *Point of Entry Arrivals Source: DHS Port of entry arrivals, Form I-94

  43. Trends to Watch • Generation divide • Solo travel • Nature travel (tamed) • Voluntourism

  44. California’s Age Wave 2000 - 2010 Millions The 45 to 64 Segment grows from 20 to 25 Percent of the Population Source: Pulse Marketing/Newbridge Partners

  45. The Way We Look -- 2000 Boomers Millions Generation X War Babies Generation Y Depression Kids Generation Z 1946-1964 Pre 1935 1977-1994 1995 + 1965-1976 1936-1945 Source: Pulse Marketing/Newbridge Partners

  46. The Way We Look -- 2010 Millions Boomers Generation X War Babies Generation Y Generation Z Depression Kids 1946-1964 Pre 1935 1977-1994 1995 + 1936-1945 1965-1976 Source: Pulse Marketing/Newbridge Partners

  47. Visits to CA State/National Parks (Domestic Person-Stays) Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  48. Visits to CA Theme/Amusement Parks (Domestic Person-Stays) Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

  49. 2007 Outlook

  50. Winter 06/07 Spring 07 Summer 07 Fall 07 US Leisure +3.2% +4.4% +3.1% +4.8% CA Leisure +2.6% +7.1% +6.3% +7.2% US Business +4.2% +7.6% +2.1% -0.5% CA Business +5.4% +5.2% -2.8% -2.0% CA Resident +2.9% +6.5% +3.3% +6.2% CA Non-Resident +6.0% +7.0% +7.4% -2.8% Seasonal Outlook 2006-2007 Source: D. K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd. DIRECTIONS®DESTINATION PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM

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