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Mission & Objectives

Mission & Objectives. World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and planning adaptation to climate change by developing science required to improve climate predictions and our understanding of human influence on climate

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Mission & Objectives

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  1. Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and planning adaptation to climate changeby developing science required to improve • climate predictions and • our understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015). M. Rice, IGFA

  2. WCRP Projects & Activities WCRP Core Projects on climate and... • WCRP response to recent thrusts & research needs: Cross-Cutting Activities • Extremes • Monsoons • Sea Level • Seasonal & Decadal Prediction • Regional Modelling • IPY Stratospheric Processes Cryosphere Ocean Energy & Water Cycle M. Rice, IGFA

  3. Future Horizons 2008-2013: WCRP activities and core projects implement the Strategic Framework COPES (Coordinated Observation and Prediction of Earth System) post-2013: to achieve a more effective interfacing with the users of climate informational products a new WCRP structure will be needed (JSC-29, Arcachon, France, April 2008) M. Rice, IGFA

  4. Partnerships/Cooperations (I) • Earth System Science Partner (ESSP): • IGBP - modelling community • Joint ESSP projects (health; food; water; carbon) • World Weather Research Programme (WWRP): • THORPEX - seamless prediction • YOTC- tropical convection M. Rice, IGFA

  5. Partnerships/Cooperations (II) • Global Climate Observing System (GCOS): • Joint Panels - observation/data assimilation • Lessons learnt from IPCC AR4 (with IGBP) • World Bank: • Regional workshop: build regional capacity in producing and analyzing climate products (with WMO/Disaster Risk Reduction Programme) M. Rice, IGFA

  6. Partnerships/Cooperations (III) • START: • “Cities at Risk” project • Joint training: Seasonal forecasting workshop • UNFCCC SBSTA and Nairobi Work Program: • Science support, especially regional climate projections • Industry (e.g. offshore industry): • Hydrographic atlases (WOCE) • Interest in climate extremes & risks analysis M. Rice, IGFA

  7. WCRP Science Accomplishments (1) • New initiatives: Decadal Prediction; Extremes & Risks; Regional Downscaling (users in focus: World Bank project) • Address uncertainties: sea-level rise; ice sheet stability • Develop next generation model scenarios (Aspen) - Milestones for IPCC AR5! IPCC 2001; IPCC 2007; Rahmstorf et al. 2007 M. Rice, IGFA

  8. Frame Science around Impacts, Adaptation, Mitigation: a Risk Management Framework WCRP/IGBP/GCOS Wshp report, Sydney, Oct. 2007 WCRP Science Accomplishments (2) • Launch of Integrated Monsoon Studies (2007-2011) as part of Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) • WCRP/IGBP/GCOS proposed Risk Management Framework (Lessons Learnt from IPCC AR4, Sydney Wshp) - Milestone for IPCC AR5! M. Rice, IGFA

  9. WCRP Science Accomplishments (3) • Adaptation: Sea-Level Rise (COP-13, Bali) • Downscaling: Improving Delivery of Model Outputs (UNFCCC SBSTA, June 2008) • Advancing Seasonal Prediction (Barcelona, June 2007) • Maximum predictability (forecast skill) not yet achieved! • Recommendations’ report M. Rice, IGFA

  10. WCRP Science Accomplishments (4) • World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction (Reading, May 2008) • Establish World Climate Research Facility! • “The Climate Prediction Project” (Summit Statement) ‘Editorial’ and ‘news’ on the Modelling Summit, Nature 15 May 2008 M. Rice, IGFA

  11. WCRP Science Accomplishments (5) • Advancing Reanalysis (Tokyo, January 2008) • Reanalysis techniques/products (atmospheric, ocean, sea ice data) • Sustained support needed (Conference Statement): • underpinning research • computing facilities • international cooperation M. Rice, IGFA

  12. WCRP Capacity Building • Open data access for researchers around the world (e.g. PCMDI archive) • Easy access for non-experts e.g. regional assessments by African users to develop Africa Climate Atlas • Workshops on use of model outputs • e.g. WCRP-ICTP training seminar • WCRP-START-WCP seasonal forecasting workshop M. Rice, IGFA

  13. What do we need to do?WCRP Priority Tasks (1) Sustained observation ofthe climate system Observations are critical and urgent – atmosphere, terrestrial, ocean, cryosphere, biosphere – We can not take today’s observation tomorrow! M. Rice, IGFA

  14. What do we need to do?WCRP Priority Tasks (2) Address scientific uncertainties Uncertainties in ice-sheets’ stability and their impact on sea level a major concern for tens to hundreds of millions of people! M. Rice, IGFA

  15. What do we need to do?WCRP Priority Tasks (3) Address scientific uncertainties(cont.) ‘Larger values cannot be excluded’ Current sea-level rise near the upper end of the IPCC projections and accelerating - why? M. Rice, IGFA IPCC 2001; IPCC 2007; Rahmstorf et al. 2007

  16. What do we need to do?WCRP Priority Tasks (4) Develop and test next generation climate models(projection, attribution and prediction), confront with observations and build confidence • At various time scales: focus on seasonal to decadal prediction and attribution (‘seamless prediction’) Century Decades Seasons M. Rice, IGFA

  17. What do we need to do?WCRP Priority Tasks (5) Develop and test next generation climate models(cont.) • At various space scales: global to regional prediction • Generate better ensembles to account for uncertainty • Improve Earth System Models (physics, biogeochemistry, biology of the atmosphere, oceans, land, cryosphere and all elements of human dimensions) M. Rice, IGFA

  18. What do we need to do?WCRP Priority Tasks (6) Strengthen our Climate Information System Need more efficient delivery to users: timely, up-to-date, and easy access... M. Rice, IGFA

  19. Major Events in 2009 Major Events in 2009 Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions Copenhagen, Denmark, March 2009 OceanObs ’09: Ocean Information for Society: Sustaining the Benefits, Realizing the Potential Venice, Italy, September 2009 World Climate Conference-3 Geneva, Switzerland, August-September 2009 M. Rice, IGFA

  20. Support for WCRP Secretariat and Project Offices M. Rice, IGFA

  21. WCRP secretariat 2007 income and expenditure (1000 USD) • Carry forward from 2006 224 • Income • WMO 1,687 • ICSU 318 • IOC 125 Total funds available 2,354 • Expenditures • Salaries and related costs 1,496 • Operating expenses 173 • meeting support 559 • ESSP OSC & misc 92 Carry over to 2008 34 M. Rice, IGFA

  22. 2008 and beyond • In 2008 the WCRP Secretariat has kept 2 posts unfilled • Spending on activities will remain about the same as for 2007 • The resulting savings will allow for a reasonable carry over to 2009 • Income from WMO and IOC is expected to remain steady; hoping for additional national contributions M. Rice, IGFA

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