1 / 20

Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment Trends International Labour Organisation

Topic 3: Methods to address data gaps for the monitoring of the target on full, decent and productive employment. Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment Trends International Labour Organisation Geneva, Switzerland. Global Unemployment, 2006. Unemployment Rates: by Region, 2006.

dara-dodson
Download Presentation

Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment Trends International Labour Organisation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Topic 3: Methods to address data gaps for the monitoring of the target on full, decent and productive employment Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation Geneva, Switzerland

  2. Global Unemployment, 2006

  3. Unemployment Rates: by Region, 2006

  4. New Target 1bis has 3 specific dimensions: • Full Employment • Productive Employment • Decent Employment No Single Labour Market Indicator exists today that would address all three dimensions of the target or meet the specified requirements

  5. Indicators for Target 1b • Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex • Vulnerable employment • The share of working poor (US$1 a day) in total employment • Labour productivity

  6. Employment-to-population ratios

  7. Vulnerable Employment Shares

  8. Employment and the Share of Working Poor 1996-2006

  9. Global Share of Working Poorin Total Employment

  10. Share of working poor living below US$1 a day

  11. Labour Productivity

  12. Criteria for Indicators Set by the Friends of the Chair : • The indicator and related metadata need to be well established in the statistical community • To the extent possible, the indicator should already be part of the regular data collection and compilation programmes in countries • Available data and geographical coverage should allow for regional/sub-regional aggregation and trends analysis (at least two points in time)

  13. Criteria (cont’d): • There is a responsible agency for the production of the indicator and for undertaking the related analysis • The indicator is recommended by a well established and recognized peer review mechanism with representatives from both the international and national statistical communities

  14. National sources Labour Offices Central Statistical Offices Universities Etc. ILO sources KILM LMIL Regional Offices Specialists within the ILO Etc. Sources of information for constructing global estimates and trends? • Other sources • World Bank • IMF • OECD • WTO • Regional sources (ADB) • Etc.

  15. Challenges in the production of world and regional estimates • The biggest challenge in the production of aggregate estimates is missing data • To address the problem the ILO has designed, and actively maintains, three economic models to produce estimates of labour market indicators in the countries and years for which no real data exists

  16. The Trends Models • The Trends Labour Force Model • Country-level and world and regional labour force estimates • The Global Employment Trends Model • Estimates missing labour market indicators based on available national and regional macroeconomic information (GDP, population, recent conflicts, historical developments) • Corrects for sample selection bias • Estimates – disaggregated by age and sex – of unemployment, employment, employment by sector and status, employment elasticities and labour productivity. • The Working Poverty Model • Estimates and projects working poor numbers, based on available macroeconomic data

  17. Techniques to impute missing values • Each of these models uses multivariate regressiontechniques to impute missing values at the country level. • The first step in each model is to assemble every known piece of information (estimates from national surveys) for each indicator. • Note that only data that are national in coverage and comparable across countries and over time are used as inputs.

  18. Imputations of missing values follows two procedures First Step: • A panel data set of more than 15 years is assembled. • If data are missing for only some years, information from complete years is used to gap fill. Second Step: • When data for all years are missing imputation is done by using a similar procedure but with the ratios now computed at sub-regional or regional levels.

  19. Topic 3: Methods to address data gaps for the monitoring of the target on full, decent and productive employment Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation Geneva, Switzerland

More Related