Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia

1. Tertiary education enrolment trends and projections in Latvia Zane Cunska Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies / University of Latvia Presentation in Eurostat/UNECE Work Session April 29 2010 / Lisbon

2. Content • Tertiary education in Latvia: facts and situation • Projection methods • Scenarios • Stable enrollment ratio scenario • Global education trend scenario • Crisis scenario • Results • Conclusions

3. Population (15-24y) projections, LV Source: EUROPOP2008, Eutostat

4. Student population in LV • In 2009 for the first time Latvia has experienced significant fall • In total enrolment: : minus 10,2%; • In first year undergraduate: minus 26% in comparison to previous year

5. Age-specific student ratios in LV (1998-2010)

6. Methods • Enrolment-ratio method • Age-specific enrolment ratio Ext=rxt Txt , based on • Eurostat population projections Txt • Ratio development trends rxt • Three development scenarios • Stable enrollment ratio • Global education trend • Crisis

7. Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio • Tertiary education developing smoothly into the future, only changes arise from the differences in cohort size. • Assumes: • proportion of students in the respective overall age cohort will continue to change in the same average speed and direction as over the previous period (1998-2010) • Transition rates and dropout rates will change at an average annual rate of change experienced in the observation period • ln(Y/Y(t-1)) = alpha/trendi.e., extrapolate the observed trends over the years 1998-2010, using the OLS and putting a constraint that the growth converges to zero when time converges to infinity

8. Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio • All trends positive or virtually constant • Growth in ratio of younger students (20-23) and non-traditional student age group (29-39) • Proportions of students in 24-28 and 40-plus age groups remain stable at 2010 level Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) age-year specific enrolment ratios

9. Scenarios – Stable enrolment ratio • Total number of students in tertiary education will decrease from 113 thousands in 2010 to 92 thousands in 2020 (minus 20%) • Most severe decline in the 18-24 years student groups – by 44% • Proportion of “traditional” age students will decrease from 64% in 2010 to 44% in 2020, • Size of older age student groups (29-39 and 40 plus) will remain stable • Share of older age students (over 29) will increase from 24% to 44% Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education

10. Scenarios – Global education trend • Takes into account the schooling pattern across European countries and assumes that the lifestyle and study patterns in Latvia and EU converge. • Assumes: • The 2011-2020 enrolment ratio structure for Latvia is converge to that of EU-27 • ln(Y/Tt-1) = B(Yt-1-Yav) • i.e., the age-specific enrolment rates Y will converge to the EU-27 average, the speed being dependent on the size of the difference between the rate at t-1 and Yav

11. Scenarios – Global education trend • The enrolment ratios in EU-27 have been gradually raising in period 1998-2005, and stabilized since 2005 • They are generally lower that Latvian 2010 rates • Consequently, all but 25 and 26 year-old rate trends are negative Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2100) age-year specific enrolment ratios

12. Scenarios – Global education trend • Decline in enrolment at all ages - minus 38% compared to 2010 • Total enrolment in 2020 fall to 1998 level (70 thousand students) • More than 50% reduction in traditional age student numbers (from 72 to 35 thousands). • 13% fall (from 17 to 15 thousands) in the older age (29 plus) students • Student population will be older and the proportion of non-traditional students (older than 25) in the total student population will increase to 50% in contrast to 36% in 2010 Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education

13. Scenarios - Crisis • Designed to capture the effects, that do not follow from statistics, but can be concluded from literature on historical development in other countries, • Subjective - author’s and expert opinions based scenario • Broad age groups • Assumes:

14. Scenarios - Crisis • Crisis would have a short-term positive impact on enrolment rates that will slightly increase above the 2010 level and stay there between 2011 and 2013 • Rise in the 25-28 age student enrolment • After the 2013 enrolment rates fall approaching the EU-27 level Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) age-year specific enrolment ratios

15. Scenarios - Crisis • Total number of students in the period 2011-2013 would increase compared to 2009 and 2010 level • The total number of young students would not be as high as before • The 25-28 years and 29 plus student group is expected to remain roughly the same size throughout the entire period 2000-2020 • Total number of students in 2020 will fall to 81 thousands, less than half (47%) of the students being in the “traditional” age Observed (1998-2010) and projected (2011-2020) number of students in the tertiary education

16. Summary Total number of students in tertiary education according to three alternative scenarios

17. Conclusions • HE system in front of big changes • Inexperienced situation • Under any development scenario the total enrolment is very likely to fall (decrease by 18-38%) • The big number of higher education institutions cannot be sustained • Foreign students are unlikely to fully compensate for decrease of cohorts

18. Thank you!