The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory: An Integrated Community-based Research Network

2. THE ARCTIC FORUM 15 May 2008 The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory:An Integrated Community-based Research Network New Approaches to Linking Scientific Synthesis, Policy, and Education Charles J. Vörösmarty, Arctic Collaboratory Planning Committee and ARCSS Committee

3. New Demands on Arctic Science US Policy on Climate Change Security Challenges Sea Level Rise Infrastructure at Risk International Cooperation Economic Interests Public Need for Accurate Information

4. Fundamental Questions About Changing and Complex Arctic System

5. Complex Information Streams Computationally intensive landscape models Science-driven sensor & technology development Change detection Agent-based models High resolution Earth System simulations Observation networks

6. September Sea Ice Extent Model Drop1.8 million sq km, 2024–2025 Observed Drop1.6 million sq km, 2006–2007 CCSM3 Model Simulation Observations SYNERGY BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELED OUTPUTS Poor Good SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING Coverage or Quality DEDUCTIVE PATH General to Specific INDUCTIVE PATH Specific to General Longitude Longitude 0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360° 0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360° Paleo Paleo 1900-60 1900-60 1960s 1960s Year 1970s 1970s 1980s 1980s 1990s 1990s 2000s 2000s Observations • Spatially/temporally patchy • Quality: High to Low • Challenging to explain in aggregate Modeled Outputs • Spatially/temporally contiguous • Physically-consistent but incomplete • Gap-filling

7. ARCSS Move to Synthesis • Improve understanding of the Arctic System, its role in the larger Earth system, and its response to change • Identify innovations in S&T that advance system science • Community-based, many perspectives • Engage decision-makers and the public on the importance of these issues & “actionable” options

8. Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory • Consensus recommendation from the community • Building blocks from 2-3 yr process; formalized during the ARCSS Data Discovery and Modeling Workshop (April 2007, Seattle) • A collaboratory is a network-based facility and organizational entity that: • Spans distance • Supports rich and recurring human interaction oriented to a common research area • Fosters contact between researchers who are both known and unknown to each other • Provides access to data sources and tools required to accomplish research tasks (Adapted from Science of Collaboratories, University of Michigan)

9. Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory Integrated Collaboratory Components: 1. Collaborative “Meeting Grounds” 2. Data and Modeling CI Support Services 3. Education, Outreach, and Policy 4. Scientist Professional Development To be further developed during a Summer ‘08 Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory Workshop

10. Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Tipping Points Not Just the Lair of Arctic Science Plentiful, Complex, Global….and Interconnected Schellnhuber & colleagues

11. Policy and Decision Support Modeling Essential to Response and Adaptation Evolution of GCMs into ESMs From: Hall & O’Connell (2007), Proc. Inst. Civ.E., Original from IPCC

12. Google search on“food” & “biofuels” 29 April 2008 Well-Intended Ooops! • Decisions being made by non-scientists on an Earth system that includes biogeophysics and humans • Failure of ESS knowledge to be conveyed • A ‘learning moment’??For us: forecast user needs For the rest: no silver bullets & single-objective solutions may fail spectacularly

13. Thank You! Upcoming Collaboratory activities will be announced via the ARCSS Listserve and ArcticInfo (available through www.arcus.org)