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Climate Change: An Introduction

This workshop provides an introduction to climate change, including the greenhouse effect, natural and man-made carbon cycles, sources of greenhouse gases, stages in predicting climate change, and the observed signs of climate change. It also explores the impact of climate change on the climate system and predicts future warming based on different emission scenarios.

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Climate Change: An Introduction

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  1. ecbi european capacity building initiative initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités Climate Change: an Introduction ecbi Workshops 2008 Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations pour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques

  2. The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere

  3. Natural and man-made carbon cycles Annual transfers, naturalandhuman-made (GtC) ATMOSPHERE 1.7 5.4 3.3 1.9 1.9 90 60 OCEAN LAND Source: IPCC

  4. CO2 is major contributor to global warmingCurrent emissions, effect over next 100 years Methane 24% Carbon dioxide 63% Nitrous oxide 10% Others 3%

  5. Sources of Greenhouse Gases • CO2 from fossil fuel use (mainly power generation, transport)and land use change (e.g. deforestation) • CH4 (methane) and NO2 (nitrous oxide) primarily from agriculture

  6. Stages in predicting climate change Scenarios from population, energy, economics models Carbon cycle and chemistry models Gas properties Coupled climate models Impacts models EMISSIONS CONCENTRATIONS CO2, methane, etc. HEATING EFFECT ‘Climate Forcing’. feedbacks CLIMATE CHANGE Temp, rain, sea level, etc. IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc.

  7. The climate system

  8. Strong global warming observed since 1975

  9. IPCC’s AR4 2007 Warming is unequivocal… now clearly evident in many aspects of the climate system

  10. Signs of climate change • Earth surface has warmed by 0.74C over last century • Sea levels rose 20cm last century • Glaciers, snow cover and sea ice all declining • More heat-waves, droughts and extreme rainfalls • More intense cyclones

  11. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: rapid rise due to human activities

  12. CO2 from fossil-fuel burning: rapid rise since 1950 Source: CDIAC, ORNL

  13. Other Greenhouse gases Similar patterns are observed for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NO2)

  14. AR4: high confidence in radiative forcing data Anthropogenic is > 10 times that of solar since 1750

  15. AR4: models are getting better • Models are used to simulate the warming of the last 150 years • Their results correlate with anthropogenic + natural warming • Natural causes can’t explain what has happened.

  16. AR4: observed vs. modelled global climate change

  17. What do models predict? • AR4: There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming, and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extreme events and changes in ice cover

  18. if emissions continue to rise, 2100 global temp. is likely to be 1.8 to 4 C above today’s

  19. A further warming of about 0.6C likely from past emissions alone (2000 constant emissions on the graph) Scale of warming depends on emissions: Low scenario 1.1 – 2.9 C High scenario 2.4 – 6.4 C

  20. Geographical patterns of warming Warming expected to be greatest over land and at high northern latitudes

  21. Other changes in climate will continue • Sea levels will rise by 18 to 59 cm by 2100. Additional 10-20 cm or more may come from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets • Snow cover, glaciers and sea ice will continue to decline • Rainfall and wind patterns will change • Extreme events (rainfall and droughts) will be more frequent • Tropical cyclones will be more intense • Meridional Overturning Circulation in N Atlantic likely to slow down by 25%

  22. The Atlantic Ocean’s Circulation System

  23. Changes will continue for centuries, even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilised by 2100

  24. Emissions to 2000, and IPCC projections to 2100

  25. Past and projected CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

  26. References & Acknowledgements • Climate Change and The Greenhouse Effect, A briefing from the Hadley Centre, Dec 2005- enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk • IPCC, Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report of the Third Assessment Report • IPCC, AR4, 2007 • DEFRA, UK (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)

  27. Thank You Claire N Parker claire.n.parker@btopenworld.com +44 1763 209 066 +44 7769 66 47 01

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