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Wind and Solar Integration in Colorado: Challenges and Solutions

Wind and Solar Integration in Colorado: Challenges and Solutions. Colorado Rural Energy Agency Energy Innovations Summit Energy Storage for Intermittent Resources: Is the “Silver Bullet” on the Horizon? Keith Parks, Senior Analyst October 14, 2011. Agenda.

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Wind and Solar Integration in Colorado: Challenges and Solutions

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  1. Wind and Solar Integration in Colorado: Challenges and Solutions Colorado Rural Energy Agency Energy Innovations Summit Energy Storage for Intermittent Resources: Is the “Silver Bullet” on the Horizon? Keith Parks, Senior Analyst October 14, 2011

  2. Agenda • Colorado Wind & Solar Energy Today • Renewable Energy Integration Challenges • Solar • Wind • Is Storage the Solution? • Natural Gas Price • Carbon Policy • Integration Costs

  3. Colorado Wind and Solar Today Wind = 1735MW 1159 turbines Solar = 131MW* 8652 installations *includes 27.4MW Utility Scale Solar PV at two installations 2x30MW utility scale solar facilities to be operational by end of 2011 Additional 400MW of wind energy installed by end of 2012 NSP-MN – 1591MW PSCo – 1735MW Xcel Energy – 4062MW SPS – 736MW

  4. Solar Energy Integration SunE Alamosa – Single Axis Tracking (7.1AC) • PV is the dominant solar technology on the system and will be for the near-term • PV is dramatically affected by cloud cover – variability can occur in seconds. • Peak production from fixed-axis installations match poorly with system peak needs July 1, 2011 August 4, 2011

  5. Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Wind Energy Integration PSCo Wind Output (MWh) • Wind variability is over a longer time frame – tens of minutes to hours. • Production peaks at all times of the day – not just at night. • Wind has a low capacity value over summer peak periods FEBRUARY 2011

  6. Wind Energy Integration In real-time, more wind means fewer dispatchable resources are on-line to manage the variability. Additionally, wind competes with traditional baseload facilities for system bandwidth. Occasional wind energy curtailment is required to maintain system reliability.

  7. Is Storage the Solution?

  8. Charging Fuel (% of Time) vs. CO2 CostSystem with Coal Base Load

  9. Relative Value of StoragePSCo System (Coal Baseload) High Value Low Value

  10. Wind Integration Costs: Uncertainty and Variability • Energy Storage Reduces Wind Integration Costs • Upgrade Cabin Creek • Increase upper pond • Higher nameplate capacity • Increase turnaround efficiency • Additional Storage Resource • 2nd Cabin Creek Public Service Company of Colorado 2 GW and 3 GW Wind Integration Cost Study. August 19, 2011. Pg 24.

  11. Conclusion • Currently, PSCo system uses Cabin Creek and gas storage as buffers • System doesn’t have sufficient wind curtailment exposure that can be cured by energy storage in the near-term • Storage capital costs above arbitrage value • BUT…as more renewable energy is integrated into the system, energy storage provides more value. We will continue to evaluate role and economics of storage.

  12. Near-Term Mitigation Strategy • Lower the Floor • Lower plant minimum capacity • Decommit - Reevaluate “must run” status • Decommission baseload (CACJA) • Upgrade Existing Storage Facilities (ie Cabin Creek) • Increase upper pond capacity • Move black start capability to diesel generators • Enable Wind to Participate in System Balancing • Implement set point control at wind plants (“optimal” curtailment) • Better forecasts = Better planning • Long-Term Solutions… • Add New Storage Facilities • Dispatchable Loads

  13. A Big Picture View of Wind Curtailment

  14. System Perspective (2013)

  15. System Perspective (2013) Wind

  16. System Perspective (2013)

  17. System Perspective (2013) Gas Coal Wind

  18. Visualization of How Off-Peak Load Helps Mitigate Wind Curtailment

  19. System Bottoming Effects (No Storage)System with Coal Baseload

  20. System Bottoming Effects (With Storage)System with Coal Baseload

  21. Xcel Energy Wind and Solar Future

  22. Xcel Energy Wind Farms Today Xcel Energy manages output from 4.1GW (2972 turbines) of wind energy across the three operating companies (NSP-MN, PSCo, SPS) and seven states (CO, TX, NM, WY, MN, SD, ND) NSP-MN – 1591MW PSCo – 1735MW Xcel Energy – 4062MW SPS – 736MW Forecast by end of 2011 Q3

  23. Xcel Energy Wind Generation Growth • Xcel Energy has been the nation’s largest wind power provider for seven consecutive years.* • Current resource plans have 5GW installed by 2015. • PSCo will be at nearly 2GW by the end of 2012. Installed Wind Capacity (MW) *American Wind Energy Association (AWEA); US Wind Industry Annual Market Report 2010

  24. Colorado Solar Generation Growth • HB10-1001 creates minimum retail distributed generation* requirement • Requirement is largely met through Solar Rewards program (current 99.4MW) • Solar Gardens legislation (HB10-1342) allows for community solar facilities (<2MW) to qualify as well. Distributed Solar PV Capacity *Retail Distributed Generation - Must be renewable energy (wind, solar, bilmass, hydroelectric) installed on the distribution system. There are further requirments regarding the how much can be residential vs commercial/industrial, amount installed by year, etc

  25. Why Forecasting?

  26. Peakers Renewables Mid-Merit Baseload Obligations and Resources Today • Net Load – Load less variable output generation. Traditional Utility Paradigm PSCo - April 26, 2010 to May 2, 2010

  27. Loads and Resources Today • Loads and Resources are forecast every working day for operational planning purposes. This is called day-ahead commitment. Forecasts of loads, variable energy generation, and unit availability are inputs to the operational planning process. Typically 18 to 42 hours ahead, but as much as five days. Loads Wind PSCo - April 26, 2010 to May 2, 2010 Actual – Thick Line; Forecast – Thin Line

  28. Loads and Resources Today • Uncertainty is driven by the wind portfolio. Mean Absolute Error Load = 86MW Wind = 245MW Net Load = 240MW PSCo - April 26, 2010 to May 2, 2010

  29. Renewable Energy Integration Solutions

  30. Peakers Renewables Mid-Merit Baseload Loads and Resources – A New Paradigm RE Forecasts drive operational decisions RE is dispatchable Fossil-based facilities are modified for flexible duty New facilities chosen for least-cost energy w/ flexible optionality Storage facilities dispatched for RE/load shifting RE Forecasts are nice but don’t affect operations RE is must-take Fossil-based facilities operate to a define duty New facilities chosen for least-cost energy Storage facilities dispatched to peak shave Variable Balance Portfolio Traditional Utility Paradigm (w/ some RE) HighPenetrationPortfolio

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