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Forecasting for AMMA

Forecasting for AMMA. John Methven, University of Reading Mat Evans, University of Leeds. Forecasting Tools (Dry Run). Reverse Domain Filling trajectories: - 3D domain centred on Niamey - vertical section along 13.5N (for ready made images) - vertical section along 2.0E

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Forecasting for AMMA

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  1. Forecasting for AMMA John Methven, University of Reading Mat Evans, University of Leeds

  2. Forecasting Tools (Dry Run) • Reverse Domain Filling trajectories: - 3D domain centred on Niamey - vertical section along 13.5N (for ready made images) - vertical section along 2.0E  finescale structure and orientation of air masses • Accumulated emissions along trajectories (when in BL): - anthropogenic (NOx inventory) - biogenic (isoprene inventory) labelling polluted air masses • ECMWF forecasts of: BL height, convective precipitation (accumulated over 6 hours), T(2m), T_dew(2m), low-, mid-, high-level cloud (0.35 degree resolution). All from 12UT forecast for lead times T+00, 06, …, 120 hr.

  3. African Easterly Wave passing Niamey2 October 2005 Northward displacement of easterly jet, encourages convection Images from Gareth Berry (Albany) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/gareth/plots.html

  4. ECMWF images (as posted at BADC) Northward displacement of moist air at surface in AEW

  5. RDF3D trajectory reconstructions of theta-e X A Y D M X Y Red – high theta-e (moist) Green – low theta-e (dry)

  6. Biogenic emissions tracer X A Y D M X Y

  7. Origin of air masses D A A D M M X Y

  8. New forecast variables for summer • ECMWF fields: soil temperature and moisture • Emissions tracers • Biogenic tracer to include emissions model for isoprene based on vegetation map and ECMWF forecasts of T(2m) and photosynthetic radiation. • Soil NOx tracer. • Many others possible to suit purpose.

  9. Types of Forecast Products at BADC • ECMWF forecast images. • Images along NS/EW RDF sections (for download in Niamey). • Images of TOMCAT model near-real time chemical analyses from Cambridge (CO, NOx, O3, …). • Domain filling trajectory data (+IDL tool rdfplanner to draw maps, sections and trajs interactively – probably only from UK). • Accumulated emissions tracers and closest approach diagnostics (faster to download than DF3D trajs but can still view 3D structure using rdfplanner – need reasonable internet). • Plots of the day posted from Reading for flight planning discussion.

  10. AMMA workspace at the BADC • Quick look data from the BA146 - flight track, p, T, humidity, O3, CO in ~2-3 hours - other measurements as they are worked up. • Flight plan briefs and mission scientist flight summaries. • Anyone with an AMMA user account can upload data to the workspace.

  11. Websites for ITOP-UK • Forecast website, workspace and archive are hosted by the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) at: http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/amma/ • Need username and password – online application for access from the same page.

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