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Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System

Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System. Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina Tsidulko Tom Black, Henry Juang, Zavisa Janjic, Mark Iredell, Geoff DiMego NWS/NCEP/EMC Ken Schere and Rohit Mathur NOAA/OAR/ARL & EPA

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Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System

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  1. Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina Tsidulko Tom Black, Henry Juang, Zavisa Janjic, Mark Iredell, Geoff DiMego NWS/NCEP/EMC Ken Schere and Rohit Mathur NOAA/OAR/ARL & EPA Georg Grell and Steve Peckham NOAA/OAR/GSD Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder and Ariel Stein NOAA/OAR/ARL Arlindo DaSilva, Mian Chin NASA/GSFC …

  2. Current Offline AQ Forecast Systems

  3. GEOS-GOCART Analysis AOD GFS-GOCART Dust concentration forecast

  4. In-Line Chem Advantages • Consistent: all transport done by meteorology model • Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no horizontal and vertical interpolation) • Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale transport • No interpolation in time • Easy handling (Data management) • Most efficient (overall CPU costs)

  5. Earth Systems Modeling Framework at NCEP • NOAA is moving toward placing modeling systems under the multi-agency unified Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF) • The NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Model (NAM) NMM dynamics and physics have been incorporated into ESMF  National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) • Code simplicity and clarity are essential so that most users can understand code with relative ease

  6. GOCART aerosol chemistry, smoke, dust, ash Dynamics (1,2) Physics (1,2,3) Coupler ESMF* Compliant Global Component System (Iredell/Lu) Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) AM * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) • GFS Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a reduced Gaussian grid model native Lorenz grid. • GFS currently requires ESMF 3.0.1; can evolve to 3.1. • GFS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, potentially convective transport, probably not scavenging.

  7. AM Dynamics (1,2) Physics (1,2,3) ESMF* Compliant RegionalSystem: NEMS Inline coupling Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) CB05/AERO-4 anthro, HYSPLIT/GOCART smoke, dust, ash emissions * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) • NMMB Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a rotated lat-lon Arakowa B staggerd grid. • NEMS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, convective transport & scavenging, deposition.

  8. Planned Initial NEMSPollutant Options Emissions Component Pollutant Component Gas-PhaseAerosols Simplified NO3 GOCART/HYSPLIT Anthro, dust, smoke, sea-salt,volcanic ash Global Anthro: EDGAR, GEIA Regional Anthro: SMOKE w/ BEIS CB05, WCHEM AERO-4 anthro Natural: USFS/HMS Wild fires, Volcanic ash GOCART/ HYSPLIT smoke, dust, ash

  9. 2.5 days 5 days NMM-B Global InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic NCEP/EMC

  10. NMM-B Regional InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic & Youhua Tang, NCEP/EMC 48 96

  11. NEMS Pollutant Plans • Loose Coupled:Stand alone chemistry/dispersion model (1-2 years) • Put CMAQ/GOCART/HYSPLIT into ESMF compatible format • Write interface between atm-chem models as a separate component • NOAH LSM exports to drive chemistry biogenic emission & dry deposition • Radiation parameters exports to chemistry for photolysis computations • Tight Concurrent Coupled: Unified met-dispersion physics/dynamics (3-5 years) • Test tracer capability for mass consistency (NMMB, GFS) • Create AQ I/O Interface: anthropogenic sources, smoke, ash • Create independent CB05/AERO/GOCART/HYSPLIT subroutines (1-D) • Pollutant processes: chemistry if any, wet & dry deposition • Transfer species to dynamics coupler for advection, horizontal diffusion • Transfer species to physics: turbulence, convection routines for turbulent and convective mixing • Transfer aerosol output to radiation and cloud microphysics to allow aerosol feedbacks on meteorology

  12. Potential Additional Volcanic Ash Focus & Data Needs • USGS volcano types to improve emission rates • Improved plume height estimation • Hysplit ensemble minimization • satellite estimates • Leverage on-going global aerosol data assimilation developments for Volcanic ash • NCEP GSI 3-D VAR aerosol optical depth assimilation system • Phase I: Assimilate MODIS, GOES, OMI AOD products • Phase II:AVHRR, MISR, etc and direct radiance assimilation

  13. Operational Upgrades • Development phase (0-2 years) • Complete model development within NEMS with OAR & NASA and other research collaborators • Begin retrospective testing to compare results with current operational systems • Experimental testing ( 2-3 years) • Transition initial NEMS codes to NWS/NCEP operational center • Provide and evaluate real-time experimental forecasts to focus group of interested forecasters • Operational Implementation (3 years) • Modified model configuration based on subjective and quantitative evaluations w/ current operational system • Additional resources made available to support operational forecast timing requirements • Distribution through current VAAC pathways and possibly NDGD and AWIPS

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