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RETAIL TRADE INDICATOR

RETAIL TRADE INDICATOR. Presentation 2009-09-14/15 Daniel Lennartsson Statistics Sweden daniel.lennartsson@scb.se. Briefly about the Swedish retail trade index. Produced together with the Swedish trade organisation

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RETAIL TRADE INDICATOR

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  1. RETAIL TRADE INDICATOR Presentation 2009-09-14/15 Daniel Lennartsson Statistics Sweden daniel.lennartsson@scb.se

  2. Briefly about the Swedish retail trade index • Produced together with the Swedish trade organisation • Samplesize 2 700 units which cover approximately 14 000 local units out of 35 000 • Broken down on 38 activity groups • First preliminary results published after T+28 days. Second definite results published after T+58 days. • Total revised with approximately 0- 0.2 percentage • National bank thought there were large differences between Retail trade index and the consumption of Retail trade products in National accounts

  3. RTI compared with household consumption of retail products(Volume change compared to last year)

  4. Differences in methods between National accounts and Retail trade index NA RTI Groups Products Activities Index method Chain index Constant price base index Variable Private consumption Total sales Deflation Products by CPIs Activities by APIs

  5. Differences between RTI and household consumption – Index method • The Retail Trade Index is calculated forward to the reference year 2007 by using constant price base index and using 2000 as the base year. • National Accounts (NA) and The Swedish National bank expressed strong desires that Retail trade index shall have the same index method as is used in the calculations of NA, IIP, Foreign trade and ISP • One of the reason why The National bank wanting Statistics Sweden to change indexing method was that there were differences between the Retail Trade Index and NA's development of retail trade goods. • Another reason is that the volume development change each time the base year is changed

  6. Difficulties constant price base index- RTI with different base year (Volume change compared to last year)

  7. RTI chain index compared to household consumption in NA (Volume change compared to last year)

  8. Retail trade index compared to NA • There are still differences between the Retail Trade Index and NA's development of retail trade goods. How do these differences arise? • The Retail Trade Index aims to measure the total sales in retail trade and not only that part concerned with private consumption. • NA use the development rate from the Retail Trade Index to make estimates about the goods levels with reference to household consumption. • Retail Trade Index performsdeflationby activity while NA perform deflationby goods. • To provide better forecasts of household consumption in NA, The Swedish national bank tasked Statistics Sweden with developing a model for household consumption in retail trade index.

  9. Household consumption in retail trade Annual survey in retail trade – sales broken down by activity and products This survey also show the amounts of sales that is sold to households, enterprises and other clients This survey is used as a model by NA when they are calculating household consumption on a quarterly basis This survey can also be used as a model when household consumption is calculated in the RTI on a monthly basis

  10. Selection of model • Calculation by activity • (Sales weighted by household consumption within each activity and deflated by activity price index) • Calculation by goods • (Sales weighted by household consumption by goods and deflated by different consumer price index)

  11. RTI household consumption – calculated by activity (Volume change compared to last year)

  12. Comparsion of RTI(Volume change compared to last year)

  13. Why are there differences between NA and the Retail Trade Index for private consumption? • For the apothecary trade, Swedish Alcohol Retail Monopoly, tobacco and food NA have had another source in the Retail Trade Index for its calculations. • For food NA use VAT figures on a quarterly basis and food sales statistics on an annual basis. NA also assume an unchanged volume development on a quarterly basis for three goods categories • NA conduct follow-ups between the production and usage sides of the economy. This can lead to revisions made for the projected consumption. • NA conduct annual follow-ups where sources other than those used on a quarterly basis are considered in the calculations. This makes it difficult to make historical comparisons.

  14. Comparsion RTI vs NA in volume

  15. Conclusions • Statistics Sweden will continue (of course) to produce RTI for total sales • From 2009 and onwards it is calculated with chain index and in NACE Rev 2 • Beside this Statistics Sweden also will start to produce an monthly indicator of household consumption in the retail trade • Start in autumn 2009 • Model based calculation. Model will be activity based. This gives just small differences between NA and RTI for household consumption • Just and index for the total retail trade • Future development will be a monthly index of household consumption for the whole service sector

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