Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2014 April 8, 2014

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 • Something I am playing with • http://openclimate.tumblr.com/ • Assignment • Emailed • Posted Politics of Dismissal Entry Uncertainty Description Model

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global • Interesting new document? • OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

4. Today • Framework for thinking about impacts and response via planning • Public health – example • Ecosystems • Water • Agriculture • Etc. • National security

5. Climate Change and Public Health • Public Health, esp. heatwaves, will be used as an example to show the elements of a real problem and its relation to climate change. • How does it relate to mitigation, adaptation? • policy • law • etc.

6. Climate Change and Public Health • Acknowledgement and thanks to • Marie S. O’Neill (Michigan) and a team in School of Public Health

7. Pathways by Which Climate Change Affects Health WHO: Climate Change and Public Health

8. Health Impacts of Climate Change • Increased heat waves and shifts in urban air quality • Vector born diseases • Range and seasonality of infectious diseases • Rising sea levels and extreme weather events = dislocation, environmental refugees = global security issue • Threatened food supply, release of toxins into environment • Decrease in water quality

9. Vector Born Disease • Dengue, malaria, west nile virus, others • Differential exposure on a global level • Some unexpected by products - spraying may cause chronic disease, drug resistance

10. Extreme Weather Events • Injuries and death • Long term psychological problems • Increased infectious disease • Contaminated water supplies

12. Quantifying and forecasting climate change public health impacts • Colder climates, e.g., Netherlands, may benefit • Hotter climates may have more effects with projected rise of 1.4-5.8o C • Overall expected impact: increased weather-related deaths

13. Co-evolution

14. Useful way to think about impact and adaptation BAD GOOD Temperature (other environmental parameter)

15. For many things: living things and ecosystems • There is an optimal range of an environmental parameter, e.g. temperature or moisture. • Above or below this range risk increases • The function looks like a parabola • May be skewed

16. Skewed towards hot being dangerous BAD GOOD Temperature (other environmental parameter)

17. Skewed towards cold being dangerous BAD GOOD Temperature (other environmental parameter)

18. Heatwaves • Public health experts count heatwaves as the most consequential environmental health risk. • examples are Chicago Heat Wave 1995, European Heat Wave 2003, Russian Heat Wave 2010

19. What is a heatwave? • Not so easy to define, because we have now brought in the human dimension. • Not the same in Houston and Chicago • Extreme high heat? • Persistent high heat?

20. Humans and heat • Environmental heat exposure • Exercise induced heat • Ability to cool

21. An observation • Extreme heat and exercise • greater than 105 is bad! • Persistent heat combined with environmental heat exposure and ability to cool • strongly dependent on acclimation • persistent night time minimum temperatures are high • this has been the most deadly

22. Heat Waves in Future Observed Modeled Predicted change in the future Meehl and Tebaldi, Science, 2004

23. Heatwaves in future • More frequent • More intense • Greater duration

24. The heatwave problem • This problem already exists (short term). • Climate change will amplify it. • Mitigation of greenhouse gases will have only indirect effect (long term) • What are the most effective responses?

25. Insights from sociology/geography • 1995 Chicago heat wave: neighborhood influences at small scale • Population stability, social structure more predictive than race Eric Klinenberg (2002) Heat wave: A social autopsy of disaster • St. Louis: spatial features (heat island, concentrated poverty) determined risk Smoyer-Tomic, K, Social Science & Medicine, 1998

26. There are Adaptation Measures • Federal versus city-level • Existing: • Heat warning systems • Emergency management • Air conditioning

27. Adaptation Measures

28. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL Complexity WEALTH TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.

29. Lessons from heat waves • Existing problem with existing system to address the problem • Some good, some bad • Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the average • Hence want to know how extreme events will change • Not clearly and distinctly addressed by efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions • Motivator for “Kyoto like” policy?

30. Lessons from heat waves • Strongest levers for addressing the problem are • Societal capability (social integration, structure, communications) • Environmental warnings and alerts • Education (first responders, general public, ....) • Engineering (air conditioners, green spaces, ...)

31. Repeatedly see this pattern • Existing problem with existing system to address the problem • Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the average • Strongest levers for addressing the problem are • Societal capability • Environmental warnings and alerts • Education • Engineering

32. Heat Wave System: Basic elements and values ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e.g heat index) COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS Policy Research and Validation ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATION

33. Three basic types of information E3 G3 P3 E2 E4 G2 G4 P2 P4 E1 En G1 Gn P1 Pn Environmental Information Geographical Information Population Information EW CS VP1 VP2

34. Today • Framework for thinking about impacts and response via planning • Public health – example • Ecosystems • Water • Agriculture • Etc. • National security

35. Reference Material • 2007: National Security and Climate Change, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2009: National Security Energy and Climate, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2010: Quadrennial Defense Review • 2012: Security and Water Resources • 2014: Quadrennial Defense Review

36. Thread through recent defense security positions • Defense-related Think Tank: Center for Data Analysis • Quadrennial Defense Review • Strong link of energy to Department of Defense activities • Intelligence Reviews

37. Approach • What are the security risks? • Which affect American interests? • What actions should America take? • Ultimately focus on integrated impacts

38. Basic Findings (1) • Increase scale of weather-related ecological and human disruptions: “sustained natural and human disasters on a scale far beyond what we see today.” • Disruption: remember we are in balance, disruption and uncertainty are major players in defense and markets

39. Basic Findings (2) • Threat Multiplier • Esp. Middle East, Africa, Asia • Food production, public health, clean water • Large migrations • Failed states

40. Basic Findings (3) • To Developed World • Increased pressure from immigration • Increase use of resources to respond to humanitarian disasters • Interplay between National Security, Energy, Energy Dependence • Increase vulnerability to single natural events and terrorism

41. Mini-summary National Security “The impacts of climate change may increase the frequency, scale, and complexity of future missions, including defense support to civil authorities, while at the same time undermining the capacity of our domestic installations to support training activities. Our actions to increase energy and water security, including investments in energy efficiency, new technologies, and renewable energy sources, will increase the resiliency of our installations and help mitigate these effects.” 2014: Quadrennial Defense Review

42. Basic Recommendations (1) • Climate change needs to be integrated into defense strategy • U.S. should work more strongly to mitigate the impacts of climate change • U.S. should help build adaptive capacity and resilience in the developing world

43. Basic Recommendations (2) • U.S. Department of Defense should aggressively pursue energy efficiency and alternative energy • U.S. should assess impact of climate change on assets • Sea level rise • Extreme events • Assets in low lying islands

44. Quadrennial Defense Review • Change of operating environment • Geopolitical impacts: Instability of fragile nations • Humanitarian efforts • Environmental security • Impact on assets • National Intelligence Survey in 2008: 30 installations already face sea level threats • Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program • Energy efficiency and alternative energy

45. Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate ChangeTask Force Energy • Challenges • When, is important. (2020, 2030, … ) • Changing geography • Arctic Maritime (clear for 4 weeks @ 2035, 3 months @ 2050 ) • Commerce in shipping • Water and resource scarcity • Sea level rise impact on installations

46. Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate ChangeTask Force Energy • Opportunities • Cooperative partnerships • Energy security • Infrastructure recapitalization

47. Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate ChangeTask Force Energy • Wild cards • Abrupt climate change (Fast changes, jumps from one to another.) • Geoengineering • Ocean Acidification

48. Climate Change Case Studies? • Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011 • Russian heat wave and drought 2010 • Texas drought and heat 2011 • The 2011 Japanese earthquake • The Arab Spring • Markets • Relation to energy

49. Problem Solving Figures

50. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL We arrive at levels of granularity Need to introduce spatial scales as well WEALTH Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.