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Empirical Considerations for Estimating Cumulative Effects in the Marine Environment

Empirical Considerations for Estimating Cumulative Effects in the Marine Environment. Michael Sutherland Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Policy (FAMP) University of Ottawa msutherl@uottawa.ca. Canadian Aquaculture. Social: Important food producer and employer.

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Empirical Considerations for Estimating Cumulative Effects in the Marine Environment

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  1. Empirical Considerations for Estimating Cumulative Effects in the Marine Environment Michael SutherlandFisheries and Aquaculture Management Policy (FAMP)University of Ottawamsutherl@uottawa.ca

  2. Canadian Aquaculture Social:Important food producer and employer Economic:British Columbia $723mNew Brunswick $230m Environmental:Possible deleterious environmental impact Photo: Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada

  3. Study Area Grand Manan IslandNew Brunswick

  4. Examples of Ecosystem Components Biological/Ecosystem Resources Socioeconomic Activities Herring Weirs Scallop urchin drags Lobster Herring: Day/Night Lobster traps Fish Farm Sites Habitat Scallops Effluent Urchins Rockweed Salt Marshes ActivityBased Effluent Benthic Structures LandOriginEffluent Current Flow MarineOriginEffluent

  5. The Model

  6. Potential for Ecosystem Component Interaction

  7. Functional forms Overall yield for ecosystem subcomponent i, i=1,2,…nfor a system with n ecosystem subcomponents. (1) Y(i) = f (Y0p(i), ∆Yjq(i)) Yield measure applied to ecosystem subcomponent i based on the area of the space. (2) Y0p(i) = g(A0ip, yi) Yield measure under overlap conditions (3) ∆Yjq(i) = h(Ajiq, yi, aji) f(.), g(.), and h(.) can be linear or non-linear

  8. General Component Interaction Rules

  9. Interactive Impacts

  10. Linear Example Y(i) = f (Y0p(i), ∆Yjq(i)) = areai* yield/unit areai* IE(C1,C2)

  11. Validation of Model Results Access to real-world data Access to data of appropriate quality The nature of stakeholder relationships that facilitate data sharing

  12. Y(i) = f (Y0p(i), ∆Yjq(i)) = areai* yieldi(C1,C2)/unit areai* IEi(C1,C2) Y(i) = f (Y0p(i), ∆Yjq(i)) = areai* yieldi(C1,C2)/unit areai * IEix(C1,C2) Non-Linear Functional Form

  13. Results Comparisons

  14. Discussion The marine environment is partially observable and incompletely documented Context relevance The stochastic nature of some of the marine elements What empirical basis for functional forms?

  15. Empirical Considerations for Estimating Cumulative Effects in the Marine Environment Michael SutherlandFisheries and Aquaculture Management Policy (FAMP)University of Ottawamsutherl@uottawa.ca http://aqua.management.uottawa.ca/ THANK YOU

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