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Demand for Renal Replacement Therapy. International Health Policy Program. Source: Witt K. Demand for RRT. IHPP [presentation] 2004. Incidence (new cases) of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). In USA 82 pmp.* in 1980 203 pmp. in 1990 334 pmp. in 2001 European Union (EU) 120 pmp. in 1995
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Demand for Renal Replacement Therapy International Health Policy Program Source: Witt K. Demand for RRT. IHPP [presentation] 2004.
Incidence (new cases) of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) • In USA • 82 pmp.* in 1980 • 203 pmp. in 1990 • 334 pmp. in 2001 • European Union (EU) • 120 pmp. in 1995 • From 68 pmp. in Finland to 163 pmp. in Germany * per million population
Incidence in Thailand • In Thailand • From 49.4 pmp.* to 107 pmp.** in 1998 • Damrongkitchaiporn et al. 2004 reported incidence at 222 pmp. * Average from 3 provinces: Songkla, Ubonrachatani, and Nakornsawan. ** in Chiengmai
Access to renal replacement therapy (RRT) in Thailand • From Thailand Renal Replacement Therapy Registry (TRT) in 2004 • Incidence 62.5 pmp. ( 3,998 cases) • Prevalence 175.2 pmp (11,208 cases) Source: Witt K. Demand for RRT. IHPP [presentation] 2004.
Burden of disease in Thailand • From TRT report in 2004, incidence of RRT was 62.5 PMP and the proportion of non-UC population was one-fourth in 2003. • Incidence should be 250 PMP. • However, some UC patients also had access to RRT, therefore 250 PMP may be a high estimation.
Cost of kidney transplantation (KT) • Surgery cost 165,479 baht • Organ harvesting would be 50,000 baht • Follow up cost 14,668 baht/visit: • 16 times in the first year 234,688 baht • 6 times in the following year 88,008 baht • Total cost in the first year 450,167 baht
Cost from Societal Perspective (Baht/patient/yr) HD CAPD • Medical cost 248,000 220,000 • Non-Medical cost 65,000 6,000 • Total Cost 313,000 226,000
At incidence of ESRD 150 - 250 pmp. Cost of dialysis at 250,000 baht/year Survival rate of dialysis patients was derived from TRT data. Cost of a program to support all ESRD patient would be 10,000 million baht within 3-5 years and 20,000 million baht within 7-10 years. Cost of a program to support RRT
An Estimation of the Number of ESRD Patients to the Year 2024 at 250 PMP
Cost of a Program to Support all ESRD Patient; Incidence at 150 PMP and 250,000 baht/patient
Cost of a program to Support all ESRD patient; Incidence at 250 PMP and 250,000 baht/patient
Summary • Estimated burden of disease • Incidence of RRT was 62.5 PMP (3,998 cases) in 2004. • Incidence of ESRD was estimated from 150 to 250 PMP (9,795 to 15,992 cases) in the year 2004. • Prevalence of RRT is 175.2 PMP (11208 cases) • Prevalence of RRT is estimated to be 1487 to 2479 PMP (107,003 to 178,339 cases) in the year 2024
Summary • Financial burden • If the government intends to support all ESRD patients, the financial burden in 2020 for RRT would range from 24,068 - 40,115 million baht that are • 3.8 to 6.4 % of total health expenditure (628,047 million baht in 2020) for a group of 0.2% of population (70.2 million in 2020) . • 15 to 25% of expenditure of universal coverage program (159,003 million baht in 2020).
Discussion • What are appropriate approaches to increase access to RRT? • Does cost-effectiveness analysis help us to answer this? • Is rationing health care inevitable? • If it is inevitable to ration care, how can we make it acceptable? • Do we have other ways to choose?