Overview of the U.S. Weather Research Program

1. Overview of the U.S. Weather Research Program John Gaynor Director Interagency Program Office For the Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction June 5, 2003

2. U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) Public expectations for weather forecasting are rising faster than the current rate of improvement in weather forecasting technology. • Purpose: Accelerate the rate which weather forecasts are improved • Interagency Initiative • NOAA, NSF, NASA, DOD (core agencies) • DOT, EPA, DOE, USDA (participating agencies) • Focus narrowed to two initial programs: • Improving Precipitation Forecasts • Forecasting Hurricanes at Landfall • Full implementation plans for each program have been prepared • Expected result: Within five years a noticeable increase in the accuracy of forecasts of rain/snow, severe weather, and hurricane landfall. • Some examples of general goals are:

3. Specific USWRP Goals forQuantitative Precipitation Forecasting • Provide west coast forecasts as accurate as forecasts for the rest of the country • Increase the skill by two full days of current Day-5, Day-6 and Day-7 forecasts • Increase the skill of Day 2 and Day 3 operational numerical weather prediction model QPF’s by one day • Provide weather and water forecasts in probabilistic terms out to three days • Increase the skill of the Day 1 operational NWP model QPF’s by 25%

4. Specific USWRP Goals forQuantitative Precipitation Forecasting (cont.) • Increase flash-flood warning lead time form 52 minutes (1998) to 65 minutes (2005). • Develop and implement a weather research and forecast community model. • Achieve the optimal mix of observing and data processing systems to support the NWS mission. • Decrease by 50% the time necessary to incorporate new satellite data sets into an operational assimilation system. • Incorporate Doppler radar data into operational mesoscale models.

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6. Specific USWRP Goals forHurricane Landfall • Reduce landfall/track/intensity forecast errors by 20% • Increase warning leadtime to and beyond 24 h with 95% confidence without increasing the present 3 to 1 overwarning • Make skillful (vs. persistence) forecasts of gale-and hurricane-force radii out to 48 h with 95% confidence • Extend QPF to 3 days and improve skill of day-3 forecasts to improve inland flooding forecasts

8. US Weather Research ProgramThe Broad Program • Technology Transfer • Provide a smooth path of new technology and forecasting techniques into operations • Emphasis on achieving USWRP goals • Basic and Applied Research • A research program to provide the new science and technology for tech transfer • Both short and long-term research strategies for addressing the goals

9. USWRP—Technology Transfer • Transfer is primarily accomplished through four components • Community Models • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) • Operational Transition Test Beds • Joint hurricane test bed • Developmental Test Center (for WRF, initially) • Joint satellite data assimilation center • Expert Systems • Several examples including Auto-Nowcasting • Education and Training • COMET

10. USWRPBasic and Applied Research ProgramTwo Major Foci • Quantitative Precipitation Program • Three Components: • Extended range: QPF 2-14 Days, global (THORPEX) • Short-term Summer QPF 0-48 hours, mesoscale • Short-term Winter QPF 0-48 hours, mesoscale • Hurricane Landfall • Highly focused program to forecast the landfall of hurricanes including: • Track • Intensity • QPF

11. USWRP Organization Interagency Working Group Uccellini, Killeen Co-Chairs Interagency Program Office Gaynor, Director Office of the Lead Scientist Gall, Lead Scientist Kerschner, Admin. Asst. Fredrick, Webmaster Science Steering Committee (Gall) Workshops (as needed) Prospectus Development Teams (as needed) Field Programs (as needed)

12. USWRP Planning Process 1. Conduct a series of Prospectus Development Teams 2. Use Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) to identify foci for the program • Identify research opportunities for improving forecasting Ü Areas where rapid progress is possible, and Ü Where the impact of improved forecasts is expected to be large 3. Conduct workshops to refine Science Objectives of each Focused Component 4. Develop Implementation Plans 5. Implement Ü Calls for proposals Ü Field programs Ü Periodically assess project and adjust program as needed Ü Develop test bed centers

13. US Weather Research Program Prospectus Development Teams (Co‑Chairs)

14. USWRP Workshops • Workshop on the Social and Economic Impacts of Weather 2-4 April, 1997—Boulder, Colorado • Hurricane Workshop 17-20 November, 1997—Miami, Florida • Workshop on Data Assimilation 9-12 December, 1997—Monterey, California • Weather Research Needs of the Private Sector 28 November-3 December, 2000—Palm Springs, California • Warm Season Workshop 5-7 March, 2002—Boulder, Colorado • First International THORPEX Workshop 18-20 March, 2002—Potomac, Maryland

15. Current Direct Funding for USWRP Rough Estimates • NSF • Grants $3.0M • NCAR $1.5M • NOAA • Base $6.5M • Other $6.0M • DoD • AFWA $3M • NAVY $7M • NASA $6M • FAA $1M

16. Hurricane PredictionAn Example Hurricane Floyd (1999) High resolution model developed at the University of Miami (Inner grid down to 1.6 km.)

18. Uncoupled

19. Societal and Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather (The focus of THORPEX)

20. Tropical Cyclone: 9 November 2002 India T.C. QUIKSCAT Surface Winds (knots)

21. Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone: 10 November 2002 ~200 fisherman lost at sea

22. US Tornado Outbreak: 11 November 2002

26. 13 November 2002 Oil Tanker Spain Spain Spain Dundee Satellite Station

27. QUIKSCAT Surface Winds: 13 November 2002 Tanker

28. Oil Tanker Disaster 13-19 November 2002

31. Swiss - Italian Flooding MeteoSat: 0000 UTC 16 November 2002

32. Eastern Switzerland: 17 November 2002

35. Eastern US - Canadian Snow and Ice Storm 16 November 2002

37. Austrian-German Alpine Wind Storm 16-17 November 2002

40. NASAspace shuttle Endeavor and crew prepare for liftoff 23 November 2002 Spanish-born, U.S. astronaut Michael Lopez-Alegria, right, waves as he leaves the Operations and Checkout Building at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Saturday afternoon with fellow crew members, John Herrington, left, the first tribal registered American-Indian astronaut, and Don Pettit, center, for a trip to launch pad 39-A for a planned liftoff onboard the space shuttle Endeavour. (AP Photo)

41. “Rain in Spain creates liftoff pain” “ NASA fueled space shuttle Endeavor for liftoff Saturday, but storms in Spain loomed as a possible show stopper – again”.

42. Moroccan Flood: 0600 UTC 25 November 2002

43. Flooding in Morocco: 25 November 2002

44. Italian alps: 26 Nov 2002 Dundee Satellite Image

45. Lago Maggiore, Italian Alps: 26 November 2002

46. Dike Break: 26 November 2002

47. Northern Italy: 28 November 2002

48. Time/Long. Diagram: 250-mb Meridional Wind (m s-1) Latitude Belt ( 35-60 N) 6-28 November 2002 Cyclogenesis India/T.C. Tornadoes Cyclogenesis Oil Tanker Snow/Ice Storm Alps Flood/Wind Cyclogenesis Cold-Air Cyclogenesis Shuttle Launch Delay Moroccan Flood Cold-Air Alps flood * * * * UK Japan Cal. UK

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