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National Weather Service Verification Program Overview

National Weather Service Verification Program Overview. Brenton MacAloney II National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD July 19 th , 2006. Verification Programs.

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National Weather Service Verification Program Overview

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  1. National Weather Service Verification Program Overview Brenton MacAloney II National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD July 19th, 2006

  2. Verification Programs The National Weather Service (NWS) Performance Branch collects warning and forecast products, as well as observations to generate verification scores. These verification scores are displayed on the Performance Management website accessible only to NWS employees.

  3. Verification Programs Verification data is available via the Stats on Demand program.

  4. Verification Programs Verification statistics are calculated on two types of products. Forecasts Warnings

  5. Forecast Verification • Aviation • Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) • Ceiling, Visibility, Significant Weather, Wind Speed, Direction, and Gust, and Flight Category • Hydrology • River Stage Forecast • Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)

  6. Forecast Verification • Marine • Coastal and Offshore Forecast • Wave Height, Wind Speed, Wind Direction • Fire Weather • National Fire Danger Rating System Forecasts (NFDRS) • State of the Weather, Temperature, Humidity, Wind Speed • Public • Point Forecast Matrices (PFM) Forecasts • Max/Min Temperature, Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

  7. Warning Verification Short Duration Warnings Long Duration Warnings* • Tornado (TOR) • Severe Thunderstorm (SVR) • Flash Flood (FFW) • Special Marine (SMW) • Winter Storm (WSW) • High Wind (NPW) • Coastal Flood (CFW) * Verification of long duration warnings is currently done by hand. Starting in October 2006, the verification of long duration warnings will be automated.

  8. Warning Verification As far back as 1986, warnings have been verified using counties warned in the Universal Geographic Code (UGC) line of a warning product. Verifiable events are collected, entered into storm data at the forecast offices (WFO), and sent to NWS Headquarters monthly.

  9. Warning Verification Any event occurring during the valid time of warned county, verifies the warning. The event is also considered “warned”.

  10. Warning Verification The NWS is changing how they issue short duration warnings. In the next few years, warnings will be issued where the “polygon” is the warning area, not the county. This “polygon” information is currently available on all SVR, TOR, FFW, and SMW products.

  11. Brent’s Dream World • Due to a limited budget, the majority of the money the Performance Branch receives is spent on the development of new verification programs. • Having verification information is great, but it does not tell the whole story. • I would love to see other areas of “Performance Evaluation” explored.

  12. Questions and Issues • Performance evaluation questions I would like to find answers to: • What is an acceptable False Alarm Ratio to the public? to Emergency Managers? to businesses? to others who depend on our warnings?

  13. Questions and Issues • Other questions: • Are there any new or existing metrics that we are not using and might be useful in showing a better picture of our performance?

  14. Questions and Issues • Other questions: • How can we get the forecasters to better understand the current metrics so that they are able to improve their forecasts and warnings?

  15. Questions and Issues • Other questions: • Are there any ways for the WFOs to easily do their own service assessments? Does anyone know of any software that might help? What types of relationships can be set up within the local community that can help channel feedback to the WFO on their performance?

  16. Contact Information Brenton MacAloney II Brent.MacAloney@noaa.gov Phone: 301-713-0090 x135

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