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The Wrong Crystal Ball

Delve into the impact of technology on business models, product life cycles, and innovation stages. Explore market transitions, cultural headspace, and quality metrics. Understand the evolving dynamics of technology in society and its implications on business strategies.

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The Wrong Crystal Ball

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  1. The Wrong Crystal Ball Dr. Barry Blesser Blesser Associates

  2. Modes of Discussion *** Who Owns the Question? *** • Pattern Recognition • Language Vocabulary • Paradigms • Theories • Speculations • View from 1,000 ft vs 30,000 ft.

  3. Technology Business

  4. Technology Paradigm Shifts • WW II Technology Impacts Society • You Bet Your Company Development • Size is Everything • Redefinition of Barriers to Entry • Shortened Lifetimes of Products • No Low Hanging Fruits • Technology as Commodity • Quality as Discardable

  5. Classical Product Evolution • Concept Invention • Laboratory Prototype • Professional Introduction • Economic Manufacture • Semi-Professional • Consumer Model

  6. Paradigm Inversion • Sony-Philips on CD development • $600M for First Model • Goal of High Volume Immediately • $12 Incremental Cost • Total System Development • Partial Borrowing

  7. Acceleration of Life Cycles

  8. Misleading Growth

  9. Stages in Product Life Cycle • Innovation and product productivity vary during a thread’s life-stages: • InfancyBirth, rapid learning, uncertain future • AdolescentOthers follow trend, energetic innovation • AdulthoodMature product ranges, less innovation • RetirementMarket for technology declines • DeathOnly antiquities remain

  10. Innovation (Practitioner View) • Initially high rate of invention with few resources • Resource grow, but rate of invention declines • Resources decline with their related marketplace

  11. Innovation (Patent View) • Initially few patents, but with very wide scope • Quantity of patents grows, but scope narrows • Patents decline with their related marketplace

  12. Spawning of Child Threads Strong threads lead to many other threads Weak threads lead to only a few narrow branches

  13. Thread Life Times Some threads have longer lifetimes than others

  14. Thread Transitions • New threads start prior to peak technical and market performance of previous threads • Thread transitions are emotional challenges Market attractiveness Technology performance Pride Success Acceptance Shock Courage Hope Action Denial Mourning Rage Internal/Self Steering External Steering time

  15. HiTech Commoditization • Low Barrier to Entry • Low Cost • Similar Features-Function • Many alternatives • Low Margins • Automated Manufacture • Low Brand Loyalty

  16. Cultural Business

  17. Head Space Limits • Total Buttons in Household • Total Hidden Menus in Products • Learning Time to Master • Interest in Mastery Effort • Personal Payback in Investment • Competing Uses of Mental Effort

  18. Life Style Impact • Direct Substitution of Equivalent • Changes Family Dynamics • Competes with Other Activities • Economic Competition • Time Competition • Viewed as Consumable

  19. Business Model • Cost of Development • Product Life • Sunk Cost for First Sale • Engineering Risk • Barriers to Entry • Support Cost

  20. Redefined Quality Metrics *** Meets Customers Expectation? *** • Solves a Real Problem or Service • Defects Irrelevant or Accepted • Fits Reliability Model • Market Sets Expectations • Not a Technical Concept • User Interface Burdens

  21. Added Value Check List • Novel Functionality • Brand Name Recognition • Distribution Dominance • User Friendly Learning Use • Specialized Technology • Perceived High Value

  22. Example: Home Computer • High Sales Volume • High Market Penetration • Low Margins • Packaging Business Model • No Barriers to Entry • Too Complex to Customize • Pure Commodity

  23. Example: Home Theater • Dominates Listening Room • Connection Impact • Flawed Source Material • High Cost • No Technical Barriers • Branded, Licensed, or Patented

  24. Example: Home Network • Installation Complexity • Implies High Economic Cost • On-site Technical Manager • Large Scale • Mass Acceptance vs Niche Solution • DSL by Analogy

  25. Analysis Methods • Personal Experience Bias • Decade Bias - Cultural Evolution • Failure of Introspection • Cultural Patterns Dominate • Use Real Social-Scientists • Technology is a Subset of Culture

  26. Summary of Issues • The Customer is Part of the Culture • Cultural Drift and Patterns • Anthropologic Evaluation of Society • Human Limits to Introspection • Technology Waves not Linear • We Do Not Choose Our Decade

  27. The Right Crystal Ball An Interdisciplinary Approach

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