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Planning Ahead: The Role of Nuclear Power in Ontario's Electricity Industry

This presentation discusses the state of resource planning in Ontario and the challenges ahead in meeting future electricity needs. It presents options to ensure reliability and flexibility, including conservation, renewables, nuclear, and natural gas. A Ten Point Action Plan is recommended to the Minister of Energy. The presentation also highlights the need to monitor coal replacement, adopt a "smart gas" strategy, pursue hydro imports, and investigate nuclear unit refurbishment. The market in Ontario is examined, including recent contract prices and next steps in planning.

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Planning Ahead: The Role of Nuclear Power in Ontario's Electricity Industry

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  1. Ontario Electricity Industry : Planning Ahead Amir Shalaby VP, Power System Planning Ontario Power Authority Presentation to Canadian Nuclear Society The Role of Nuclear Power in Future Generation Planning in Ontario May 4, 2006

  2. I will Describe the State of Resource Planning in Ontario • Describe the widening supply gap and challenge ahead in Ontario • Describe options to meet Ontario’s future needs • Present a Ten Point Action Plan that the OPA is recommending to the Minister of Energy • Chart the next steps in planning for Ontario

  3. OUTLOOK FOR ELECTRICITY IN ONTARIO

  4. Meeting Requirements with Conservation, Renewables, Nuclear and Natural Gas

  5. Electricity Production Over 20 Years

  6. Supply Mix Action Plan to Ensure Future Reliability and Flexibility • Plans must adapt to different possible futures • Move immediately to capture conservation opportunities • Acquire up to 5,000 MW of wind generation • Seek to achieve full biomass and waste potential to generate electricity • Continue to closely monitor risks to the coal replacement schedule

  7. Supply Mix Action Plan to Ensure Future Reliability and Flexibility 6. Adopt a ”smart gas” strategy by using gas only in high value applications 7. Pursue hydro imports 8. Investigate the potential to refurbish existing nuclear units 9. Initiate approvals and permitting for new nuclear 10. Develop policies and plans for the transmission to integrate the supply options

  8. What is the Market like in Ontario? • Recent contracts indicative: • nuclear refurbishments: $63/Mwh • renewable energy: $80/Mwh • standard offer for small facilities $110-145/Mwh • RFP awards for gas-fired generation • Forward price auction • $73/Mwh ± to 2010 • Spot market prices are lower on average

  9. NEXT STEPS IN PLANNINGFOR ONTARIO • Feedback on the Supply Mix to the Minister (January – April 2006) • Direction to OPA – Spring 2006 • Integrated Plan prepared and filed with OEB – Fall 2006 • Regulatory Review of Integrated Plan – Winter 2006

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