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The Mechanics of the Monthly Employment Situation

The Mechanics of the Monthly Employment Situation. April 1, 2013 Scott Meckley Center for Workforce Information & Analysis. Each month, with the release of national, statewide, and local employment data, two different measures of employment are discussed: 1) Jobs Data

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The Mechanics of the Monthly Employment Situation

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  1. The Mechanics of the Monthly Employment Situation April 1, 2013 Scott Meckley Center for Workforce Information & Analysis

  2. Each month, with the release of national, statewide, and local employment data, two different measures of employment are discussed: • 1) Jobs Data • Program = Current Employment Statistics (CES) • Survey = CES Survey (also called establishment survey) • What is measured? = jobs, by area and industry • 2) Civilian Labor Force Data • Program that produces the data = Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) • Survey used = Current Population Survey (CPS) (also called household survey) • What is measured? = civilian labor force, employment and unemployment by residence, unemployment rate

  3. Nonfarm Jobs Data (CES) • Current Employment Statistics (CES) is a monthly payroll survey of nonfarm establishments used to estimate jobs • National sample of approx 140,000 establishments. PA portion consists of about 7,000 establishments. • Also referred to as “nonfarm jobs” due to the fact that agricultural establishments are not counted • Counts the number of JOBS (not workers) • Based on LOCATION OF JOB (not residence of worker)

  4. Nonfarm Jobs Data (CES) • Monthly nonfarm jobs estimates are produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (as of March 2011) for different areas: • United States • States • Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) - 14 in PA • Prior to March 2011, CWIA was responsible for the production of state and MSA jobs estimates each month. • CWIA currently produces job estimates for the 37 PA counties not included in MSAs*. This function is not funded by BLS. • *source: UI claims-based model

  5. Nonfarm Jobs Data (CES) • Monthly nonfarm jobs estimates are produced for different industry detail: • Total Nonfarm Jobs • Private and Public industry totals • Goods-producing and Service-providing totals • Sectors (manufacturing, retail trade, etc.) • Subsector detail for some industries • Seasonal Adjustment – allows for comparison of different months • Statewide seasonally adjusted at sector level • MSAs seasonally adjusted only for total nonfarm jobs • At the end of each year, data is benchmarked – sample-based estimates are replaced with a more complete count of jobs from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program.

  6. Nonfarm Jobs Data (CES) • Because CES jobs data are estimates, the data is subject to revision at various times throughout the year. • When data first becomes available (February 2013 data just recently produced) it is considered preliminary. • When the following month’s data is produced (March 2013), the prior month (February) is recalculated based on additional sample data that has been received. The estimate is then considered final. • At the end of each year, data is benchmarked – sample-based estimates are replaced with a more complete count of jobs from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. This affects the prior 21 months of data. • Finally, new seasonal adjustment factors are calculated and applied to benchmarked data. This generally affects data for the prior 5 years.

  7. Labor Force Statistics (LAUS) • Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program estimates the number of persons working or available for work in a given area • Current Population Survey (CPS) – a survey of approx 60,000 U.S. households (PA sample is ~2,000) that is a key input into the model used to produce state labor force estimates. • Consists of four primary measures • Civilian Labor Force • Employment • Unemployment • Unemployment Rate • Employment a count of PERSONS (not jobs) • Data based on where people LIVE (not where they work)

  8. Labor Force Statistics (LAUS) • Definitions of labor force components: • Employment – count of persons 16+ who were working • Unemployment – count of persons 16+ who were not working, but were actively searching for work • Civilian Labor Force – count of available workers (employed plus unemployed) • Unemployment Rate – number of unemployed divided by labor force

  9. Labor Force Statistics (LAUS) • Civilian Labor Force estimates are produced for different areas: • United States • States • Metropolitan Statistical Areas • Counties • Selected Minor Civil Divisions (cities, townships, boroughs) • Workforce Investment Areas • Other groupings (Combined MSAs, Metro Divisions) • Seasonal Adjustment done for all data elements • all areas seasonally adjusted except for Minor Civil Divisions • Labor Force data also undergoes a benchmarking procedure each year, where data is re-calculated based on more complete model inputs (updated UI claims, population figures, and jobs counts)

  10. Jobs vs. Labor Force Jobs Data • Count of jobs • By place of work • Survey of establishments • Excludes self-employed • Multiple job holders – each job is counted • Detailed industry data Labor Force/Employment • Count of persons • By place of residence • Survey of households • Includes self-employed • Multiple job holders – each person counted once • No industry data

  11. PA Unemployment Rate: 2007 - Current (Seasonally Adjusted)

  12. PA Unemployment Rate: 2000 - Current (Seasonally Adjusted)

  13. PA Total Nonfarm Jobs: 2007 - Current (Seasonally Adjusted, PA data in thousands)

  14. To obtain a copy of this presentation or any of the handouts, contact the Center for Workforce Information & Analysis at: (877) 493-3282

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