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Employment Situation

Employment Situation. March 2011 Josh Lasker. Overview . Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics Next release= May 6th Overall unemployment fell from 8.9% in February to 8.8% (for March) Peaked at 10.1 in late ‘09 A drop in unemployment despite a labor market participation rise

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Employment Situation

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  1. Employment Situation March 2011 Josh Lasker

  2. Overview • Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics • Next release= May 6th • Overall unemployment fell from 8.9% in February to 8.8% (for March) • Peaked at 10.1 in late ‘09 • A drop in unemployment despite a labor market participation rise • Unemployment=? • Not counted if you hadn’t searched for a job within 4 weeks proceeding survey • With an expanding labor market, a drop becomes even more significant

  3. Overview Continued • US Gov dropped 14,000 jobs in March • Private Sector gained 230,000 jobs • Versus last 3 month average of 188,000 • Important point: Gov jobs cost tax revenue, private sector jobs create it • Manufacturing jobs slowed to 17 thousand news jobs versus 32K in Feb • Average hourly earning for private nonfarm workers= $22.87/hr • Up by 1.7% since 1 year ago • Something to think about: 200,000 jobs per month=2019 when prerecession unemployment levels are reached

  4. Unemployment Rates by Worker Groups • Adult Men- 8.6% • Adult Women- 7.7% • Teenagers- 24.5% • Whites- 7.9% • Blacks- 15.5% • Hispanics- 11.3% • Asians- 7.1%

  5. Effects • Poilitics • Markets

  6. Politics • Democrats and stimulus • Republicans and $10 billion in cuts • Looking towards $50 billion more • What this means: • Momentum came after democrats pushed policy • If a slow down happens it will be after republicans enacted policy

  7. Markets • Actual versus perception • Actual: Would take 195K/month to keep up with growing workforce • Perception: Effects of news on market… • Could strengthen US dollar • Jobs data+spending data are used by Fed for stimulus policy • Other economies, ie: Japan+some European ones make US look relatively good.

  8. How to play in Market • Spots on forex • ETF on • long USD= UUP • Long the EUR short= EUO • Short JPY= JYF

  9. Sources • http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/print.pl/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm • http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/business/economy/02jobs.html?_r=1&ref=global • http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/business/02obama.html?ref=global&pagewanted=print • http://seekingalpha.com/article/261475-friday-s-jobs-report-and-its-effect-on-the-usd-key-market-considerations-for-the-coming-week

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