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Wade Cole Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2791

Relating WASL Completion and Performance to High School Graduation Early Learning & K–12 Education Committee November 14, 2007. Wade Cole Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2791 E-mail: wcole@wsipp.wa.gov WSIPP publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov. 1 of 19.

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Wade Cole Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2791

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  1. Relating WASL Completion and Performance to High School Graduation Early Learning & K–12 Education Committee November 14, 2007 Wade Cole Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2791 E-mail: wcole@wsipp.wa.gov WSIPP publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov 1 of 19

  2. Washington State Institute for Public Policy • Created by the 1983 Washington Legislature • Mission: carry out non-partisan research on projects assigned by the Legislature or the Institute’s Board of Directors • Senator Karen Fraser Secretary Robin Arnold-Williams, DSHS • Representative Fred Jarrett Director Victor Moore, OFM • Representative Phyllis Kenney Sandra Archibald, University of Washington • Senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles Andrew Bodman, Western Washington Univ. • Representative Skip Priest Robert Rosenman, Washington State Univ. • Senator Pam Roach Les Purce, The Evergreen State College • Representative Helen Sommers Ken Conte, House Office of Program Research • Senator Mark SchoeslerRichard Rodger, Senate Committee Services 2 of 19

  3. Presentation Outline • Class of 2008 • Completion and met-standard rates by demographic characteristics • Results as of summer 2006 (first WASL retake) • Emphasis on reading and writing • Class of 2005 • Graduation rates by WASL performance • Statistical analyses of WASL completion, met-standard, and graduation rates • Use results from the Class of 2005 to project graduation rates for the Class of 2008 3 of 19

  4. WASL Timeline Class of 2008 Class of 2008 enters 9th grade Class of 2008 enters 10th grade Class of 2008 enters 11th grade Class of 2008 enters 12th grade 10th-grade WASL 10th-grade WASL Summer WASL retake Summer WASL retake 4 of 19

  5. Completion Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 100% Completed neither 2,257 4% 264 4% 3,862 5% 11% 379 10% 194 9% 722 Completed Writing Completed Reading 90% 80% Tested in neither 70% Tested in Writingonly 60% 50% Tested in Reading only 40% Completed Reading and Writing Tested in Reading & Writing 30% 20% 10% 91% 93% 93% 83% 82% 85% 68,878 5,691 51,493 2,989 1,919 6,622 0% Total Asian White African Native Hispanic Am. Am. 5 of 19

  6. Completion Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 100% 2,052 4% 1,641 4% 2,221 6% 1,810 8% 3,355 5% 16% 504 90% 80% Tested in neither 70% Tested in Writingonly 60% 50% Tested in Reading only 40% Tested in Reading & Writing 30% 20% 10% 93% 93% 83% 82% 85% 34,517 92% 34,361 90% 50,229 94% 18,649 85% 66,367 92% 2,508 78% 0% Female Male Not F/R meal F/R meal Not ELL ELL 6 of 19

  7. Met-Standard Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 100% 14% 11% 10% 26% 25% 30% 9,958 663 5,479 930 472 2,314 Met standard in neither 90% 2,626 5% 5% 312 Met standard in Writing 5% 4,106 3,561 6% 4% 267 80% Met standard in Reading Met Std in neither 7% 5,130 70% 170 9% 316 9% Met Std in Writingonly 646 8% 60% 10% 199 293 8% 10% 770 50% Met Std in Reading only 40% Met standard in Reading and Writing Met Std in Reading & Writing 30% 20% 10% 56,393 4,853 43,950 2,047 1,078 4,057 75% 80% 79% 57% 56% 52% 0% Total Asian White African Amer. Native Amer. Hispanic 7 of 19

  8. Met-Standard Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 100% 10% 16% 9% 25% 11% 55% 3,806 6,152 4,555 5,403 8,168 1,787 90% 2,233 4% 2,157 6% 3,788 5% 5% 2,917 1,603 4% 80% 1,949 5% 7% 4,793 Met Std in neither 9% 3,527 70% 9% 1,873 Met Std in Writingonly 10% 2,213 60% 50% Met Std in Reading only 40% 10% 318 Met Std in Reading & Writing 30% 10% 337 20% 10% 29,842 80% 26,551 70% 44,047 82% 12,346 57% 55,601 77% 24% 789 0% Female Male Not F/R meal F/R meal Not ELL ELL 8 of 19

  9. Class of 2005

  10. What Proportion of Students Who Completed and Met-Standard on the WASL Graduated? Class of 2005 Completed 78.4% 47,433 (60,525) Did not complete 3,128 15.4% (20,353) Met std RWM 90.7% 22,159 (24,426) Did not meet std RWM 50.3% 28,402 (56,452) Met std RW 87.6% 31,539 (26,002) Did not meet std RW 42.4% 19,022 (44,876) Met std R 85.6% 35,921 (41,990) Did not meet std R 37.7% 14,640 (38,888) Met std W 36,152 85.1% (42,485) Did not meet std W 14,409 37.5% (38,393) Met std M 25,076 (28,153) 89.1% Did not meet std M 25,485 (52,725) 48.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Graduation rate 10 of 19

  11. High School Graduation Rates by 10th-Grade WASL Levels Class of 2005 100% 92% 88% 90% 86% 85% 78% 78% 80% 70% 67% 61% 59% 60% 49% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Level 2 Level 4 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 1 0% Reading Writing Math 11 of 19

  12. 10th-Grade WASL Scores by Graduation Status Class of 2005 420 24 410 20 400 16 390 380 12 370 8 360 4 350 389 368 400 19 16 414 0 340 Writing Reading Math Graduated Did not graduate 12 of 19

  13. Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates Reading and Writing, Class of 2005 Grade point average Student has at least one disability (vs. none) English language learner (vs. not) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) Native American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Asian (vs. White) WASL Completion WASL Met Std Female (vs. Male) 0 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Less Likely More Likely 13 of 19

  14. Relative Strength of Associations: Graduation Class of 2005 Grade point average Met standard in reading Met standard in writing Student has at least one disability (vs. none) English language learner (vs. not) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) Native American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Asian (vs. White) Female (vs. Male) 0 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Less Likely More Likely 14 of 19

  15. Predicted Graduation Rates Reading and Math, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA) 100% Not Met Standard Met Standard 90% 80% Predicted graduation rate Math 70% 60% Reading 50% 400 190 230 270 310 350 390 430 470 510 550 590 WASL scale scores 15 of 19

  16. Predicted Graduation Rates Writing, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA) 100% Not Met Standard Met Standard 90% 80% Predicted graduation rate 70% Writing 60% 50% 17 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 WASL writing scores 16 of 19

  17. Predicted Graduation Rate Class of 2008 • Use data for 10th graders in 2002–03 to predict graduation rates in 2005: Graduate = f ( Gender Race/Ethnicity Poverty Language Disability GPA WASL scores) • Apply this prediction equation to data for 10th graders in the class of 2008 Predicted graduation rate: 74.1% 17 of 19

  18. Summary of Findings • In general, the same characteristics are associated with completing the WASL, meeting standard on the WASL, and graduation • Students who did not complete the WASL were less likely to graduate • Students who did not meet standard on the WASL were less likely to graduate • Will graduation rates be affected by making the WASL a graduation requirement? 18 of 19

  19. Forthcoming Institute Reports • Final statistical analysis of the WASL • Spring 2006 • Summer 2006 • Spring 2007 • Final review of alternatives to the WASL • Multiple measures • Cultural appropriateness • Collection of Evidence implementation • Evaluation of school-year Promoting Academic Success (PAS) 19 of 19

  20. Percentage of Students Meeting WASL Standard Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006)

  21. Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2005 Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) WASL Completion WASL Met Std Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) Grade point average 0 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Decreased Likelihood Increased Likelihood

  22. Relative Strength of Associations: Graduation Class of 2005 Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) Grade point average Met standard in reading Met standard in writing Met standard in math 0 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Decreased Likelihood Increased Likelihood

  23. Relative Strength of Associations: Graduation Class of 2005 Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) Grade point average Met std in reading & writing 0 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Decreased Likelihood Increased Likelihood

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