Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries?

1. Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries? Demographic Transition: four stages which describe human population trends

2. Stage I: Low Growth -high birth rates -high death rates -result is very low, unstable population growth -most of history has been Stage I -people depended upon hunting and gathering

3. About 8000BC—First Agricultural Revolution -humans first domesticated plants and animals -no longer relied entirely on hunting and gathering -more reliable food sources -more people could survive Human population grew from about 5 million in 8000BC to about 800 million by 1750AD -food supplies were still unpredictable -flooding, drought, and other disasters could greatly effect death rates from year to year which kept the populationin Stage I -war and disease also played a major role keeping humans in Stage I Now, there is no nation in Stage I

4. Stage II—High Growth -continued high birth rates -lowering death rates -result is very high growth

5. In 1750, world population was growing about 500,000 annually -by 1800, it was growing by 5 million each year -NIR increased from .05% (1750) to .5% (1800) Industrial Revolution—event that pushed countries into Stage II -a conjunction of major improvements in industrial technology that transformed the process of manufacturing goods and delivering them to market -increased wealth in some areas which made these communities healthier places to live -new machines helped farmers increase agricultural production -feed more people -less farm workers needed; more industrial workers -sanitation and personal hygiene improved -sewer systems in cities -food and water supplies protected from contamination As a result of these innovations, people were healthier and could live longer

6. European and North American countries entered Stage II about 1800 Most Asian, African, and Latin American nations did not reach Stage II until around 1950 -during 1800s, world NIR was about .5% -from 1950 to 2000, world NIR up to 1.7% -in 1900, 8 million people added to the world population -in 2000, about 80 million added to the world population Medical revolution is what allowed the African, Asian, and Latin American nations to enter Stage II -new medical technology developed in Europe and North America diffused into these other areas -this eliminated many of the traditional causes of death in LDCs -enabled more people to live longer -immunization, penicillin, vaccines, and insecticides helped control infectious diseases such as smallpox, malaria, and tuberculosis

8. Stage III—Moderate Growth -continuing lower death rates -birth rates begin to lower -result is slower population growth

9. NIR slowly lowers as the gap between CBR and CDR narrows -Europe and North America moved to Stage III in early 1900s -most Asian and Latin American nations moved into Stage III during late 1990s -most African nations remain in Stage II Birth rates lower not because of technological reasons as in Stage II CDR, but because of a change in social customs -people choose to have fewer children -in Stage I, it is necessary to have more children because less survived to adulthood -by Stage III, the improved technologies are responded to by needing and having fewer babies -economic changes also affect this because in Stage II societies, more people live in cities -farming families considered children to be an asset -urban families have less room, less need for large numbers of children (children restricted from jobs, become an expense)

10. Stage IV—Very Low Growth -low death rates -low birth rates -result in low, or no growth

11. Zero Population Growth (ZPG)—the total fertility rate that results in a lack of change in the total population over a long term -the point when the CBR declines and becomes equal to the CDR Other conditions may be factored together to cause ZPG even before the CBR equals the CDR Geographers also use the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to measure ZPG -when TFR is 2.1, ZPG is reached -immigration must also factor in The TFR map can be used to show which countries have reached Stage IV Entry into Stage IV is the result of social customs -women tend to enter the workforce rather than stay at home and raise children -day care must be arranged in urban settings -not necessarily in traditional farm settings where the women and older siblings were home to take care of the younger children

12. People with access to a wider variety of birth control methods are more likely to use some of them Increased income often results in increase in leisure activities -attending cultural events, traveling, ‘going to the bars’ -many of these events are not suitable for children, and many couples choose not to have children in order to maintain this sort of lifestyle Many Eastern European nations have negative NIR -result of Communist rule (highly industrialized system) -CDR increased because of lack of pollution control and less medical care -CBR decreased because of strong family-planning programs and pessimism toward having children (economic burden) Demographers in the future may identify a fifth stage of the demographic transition -a stage of higher CDR than CBR -could cause an irreversable pattern of population decline

13. Stage I and Stage IV are both low growth, but Two Major Differences: • In Stage I, CDR and CBR are high • -in Stage IV, CDR and CBR are both low • 2. Total population is much higher in Stage IV than in Stage I

14. The Demographic Transition in England Stage I—Low Growth Until 1750 Normans invaded Britain in 1066 and conducted a census -population was about 1 million By 1700, the population had risen to only 7 million During these years, population rose in some years and fell in others -Black Death—England lost half of its total population (took years to recover) -bad harvests increased CDR dramatically in the 1740s

15. Stage II—High Growth (1750-1880) In 1750, CBR and CDR both at about 40 per 1000 By 1800, CBR remained high, but CDR dropped to about 20 -this was the start of the Industrial Revolution in England -food supply increased -more wealth was spent partially to improve public health From 1750—1880, England’s population rose from 6 million to 30 million -average NIR of 1.4% per year

16. Stage III—Moderate Growth (1880s—early 1970s) In 1880, CBR was 33, CDR lowered to 19 CDR continued to fall until it hit 12 in 1970 CBR began to decline sharply, from 33 in 1880 to 18 in 1930 and 15 in 1970 Population increased from 26 million to 49 million (slower growth) -average NIR of .7% annually

17. Stage IV: Low Growth (Early 1970s—present) CBR has varied between 12 and 14 CDR has varied between 10 and 12 TFR is below 2.1 Population has grown only 3 million since 1970 -most of this growth is due to immigration from former colonies

18. Population pyramids: a bar graph which represents the distribution of population by age and gender • 2 Ways A Country’s Population is Influenced by the Demographic Transition: • Percentage of population in each age group • Distribution of males and females Population pyramids show total population in five-year groups Youngest group (0-4) at base of pyramid Oldest group at top Length of bar represents the percentage of the total population contained in that group Males usually on left, females on right

19. The shape of a population pyramid is determined primarily by the CBR Broad based, more triangular shape usually represents Stage II (high growth) countries Narrow based, more rectangular shaped usually represents Stage IV (low, no growth) countries By the way, which country has the higher population?

21. Dependency ratio: the number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years The larger the number of dependents, the greater the financial burden on those who are working Population divided into three main groups: 1. 0-14 years 2. 15-64 years 3. 65-older Those in the 0-14 and 65-older categories are usually considered dependents Approximately one-half of all people living in Stage II countries are dependents (compared to one-third living in Stage IV countries) Dependency ration calculated: Total Populations (0 - 18 + 65+ yrs.)100 Total Population 19 – 65 year olds X 1

22. Stage II About 1 dependent per worker Young dependents outnumber elderly about 10:1 About 1/3 of total population 0-14 Stage IV About 2 workers per dependent Young dependents and elderly are roughly equal About 1/5 of total population 0-14 The large number of children in Stage II countries strains resources As countries go through stages of the Demographic Transition, the percentage of elderly increases -combination of lower CBR and improved medical care and higher incomes 65—over: more than 15% in Stage IV; less than 5% in Stage II -some areas of Florida have more than 35% of population above 65 years of age Older populations require more resources to take care of (graying population)

23. Sex ratio: the number of males per hundred females in a population In Europe and North America—about 95:100 In the rest of the world—about 102:100 In the U.S., 0-14 age group—about 105:100 -women begin to outnumber men at about age 30 -women in U.S. make up about 60% of the 65-over age group In LDCs: -larger percentage of population in 0-14 range -less people live beyond 65 years of age, results often in more men than women Countries with high immigration rates generally have more males than females -males more likely to undertake long-distance migration Frontier areas generally have more men than women -Alaska is about 111:100 Retirement areas usually have more females (longer life expectancies) Text Fig. 2-16—Detroit (African American); Laredo (Hispanic); Honolulu (Asian); Cedar Rapids (European, lower CBR)

24. Countries in Different Stages of the Demographic Transition Stage II—Cape Verde Antimalarial campaign launched in 1950 CDR dropped from 27 to 17 from 1949 to 1951 CDR dropped to 10 by 1960 CBR remains high (in 1954, was 53; declined below 30 during 1960s and 1970s; increased above 40 during 1980s, currently in upper 30s Wild fluctuating CBR typical of Stage II Made up of 12 small islands located east of Africa Moved to Stage II about 1950 Population has tripled since 1950 NIR is about 3.0% per year

25. Stage III--Chile Chile entered the 1900s in Stage II During the 1930s, new medical technology lowered CDR sharply During the 1940s and 1950s: NIR above 2% annually CDR dropped from mid 30s to less than 15 1960s and 1970s: CDR dropped below 10, CBR dropped from 35 to 20 Still large gap between births and deaths, keeping growth moderate

26. In 1966—rigorous family planning policy along with reduced inclome and high unemployment lowered the CBR Chile is unlikely to move to Stage IV anytime too soon Government renounced its policies, stating that population growth could help promote national security and economic development Many Chileans belong to the Roman Catholic Church, which opposes the use of any type of artificial birth-control

27. Stage IV--Denmark During 1800s, CDR rapidly declined (entered Stage II) Late 1800s—CBR declined (entered Stage III) Since 1970, CDR and CBR are both about 12 -ZPG established Population increasing due to immigration Population pyramid shows classic Stage IV -young and elderly almost equal

29. Demographic Transition and World Population Growth During mid-to-late 1900s, very rapid world population growth because very few countries were in the “Low Growth” stages of the demographic transition -none were in Stage I -most were in Stages II and III

30. Two Big Breaks of the Demographic Transition: • Sudden drop in CDR • Often a result of technological innovation • Has been accomplished in most countries • -in Europe and North America, wealth allowed development of Xrays, penicillin, and insecticides (inventions) • -in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the drop in CDR was accomplished with less internal effort by local citizens (ideas diffused into these areas) • -in Sri Lanka, CDR dropped 43% in 1946 and 1947 because of the introduction of the insecticide DDT to control mosquito populations • -the DDT was manufactured and administered by European and North American scientists • -cost $2 per person in Sri Lanka • -this cost was paid for by international donations (organizations) • Result is no change in the economy or culture (no economic gain) • -poverty remains high as “opportunity” didn’t come with lower CDR

31. Two Big Breaks of the Demographic Transition: • Sudden drop in CBR • Has yet to be achieved in most countries • Whereas CDR can be lowered with help from outsiders, CBR can only be achieved when people decide for themselves to have fewer children • Countries in Asia and Latin America are progressing toward Stage III • In Africa, many countries remain “stuck” in Stage II

33. Can you match the following countries with the correct population pyramid? • Russia B. Indonesia C. Brazil • D. Germany E. Kenya F. Pakistan E A D B C F