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3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

This article discusses the use of 3D analysis techniques to analyze heliospheric data for space weather forecasting. It explores the current applications and future potential of this approach.

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3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

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  1. 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States (Email: bvjackson@ucsd.edu) D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States S. Hong, J. Kim Korean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea M. Tokumaru Nagoya University, Japan Masayoshi http://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/

  2. 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States (Email: bvjackson@ucsd.edu) D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States S. Hong, J. Kim Korean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea M. Tokumaru Nagoya University, Japan Masayoshi http://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/

  3. Introduction: Data Sets/Analyses: Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) mainly from STELab, Japan, Thomson scattering from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) Heliospheric Tomography: 3-D Heliospheric Tomography (a fit to data – a time-dependent heliospheric view from a single observer location) Speeds and densities from the IPS, vector fields from solar surface magnetic field maps Current Applications: A technique used to drive 3D-MHD models – ENLIL Future: Accurate, autonomous, continuously verifiable analyses.

  4. Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) analysis

  5. IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab) DATA STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji STELab IPS array systems

  6. IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab) DATA IPS line-of-sight response STELab IPS array systems

  7. Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011)

  8. Other Current Operating IPS Radio Systems The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m2) operating at a nominal frequency of 326.5 MHz. The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m2 110 MHz array, Russia (summer 2006) Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI).

  9. Other and Potential Future IPS systems MEXART (Mexico) KSWC (South Korea) Dedicated IPS 700 m2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array, Jeju Island Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico MWA (Western Australia) LOFAR (Western Europe) (32 tiles are now operating. The full array 128 tiles can obtain some IPS data.) (Some parts of the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.)

  10. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS Sample outward motion over time

  11. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 IPS Density Remote View

  12. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 IPS Density Ecliptic Cut

  13. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 IPS Velocity Ecliptic Cut

  14. Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353. • Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

  15. IPS forecasts

  16. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Real-Time Forecasts UCSD IPS analysis UCSD Web pages Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  17. Forecast http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Fit to CELIAS data One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  18. Forecast http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Fit to CELIAS data One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  19. Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast Velocity Density Velocity Density Velocity matched to ACE, density matched to CELIAS Remote velocity from STELab IPS three-site Remote density from STELab IPS g-level

  20. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, (in press). http://ips.ucsd.edu/Earth Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  21. Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast Bradial Btangential Bradial Btangential RTN coordinates

  22. Current Forecasts Fit to CELIAS Fit to ACE L0 UCSD KSWC http://ips.ucsd.edu/ http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips

  23. Toward a comprehensive modeling that Includes 3D-MHD

  24. Solar wind /CME prediction models now operating at the Korean Space Weather Center WSA-ENLIL-CONE model IPS Tomography model Time-dependent 3D MHD model inner boundary 21.5 solar radii to adjustable outer boundary Boundary condition from WSA model 3D kinematic solar wind model Tomographically fit to ground-based interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data In operation - RRA KSWC (Korea) - UCSD CASS (USA) - CCMC (USA) In operation - RRA KSWC (Korea) - NOAA SWPC (USA) - CCMC (USA) - Met office (United Kingdom) - BOM IPS (Australia) Ground observation of real time IPS - STELab, Nagoya Univ. (Japan) - RRA, KSWC (Korea) 24 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014

  25. KSWC Manpower for Model run ENLIL and IPS model run / forecast Forecasting Division Model Operator Lee, J.H. Park, S.R. Yun, J.H. • Total 7 staff working for ENLIL and IPS model run (3 operators designated to model running and forecasting)

  26. KSWCENLILmodel output home Year(YYYY) Run time (YYYYmmddHH) rrajeju Month(MM) enlil_images Day(DD) latest Generate the output of the WSA-ENLIL-Cone model as an image Archive the output (image and binary), the most recent results are on the web. 26 http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/enlil

  27. KSWC IPS model output • Run the IPS model everyday at 02:00 UT (11:00 KST) Enlarge with animation 27 http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips

  28. (Yu, H-S., et al., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 147-152.) IPS-Derived Boundaries for 3D-MHD Models

  29. Subject: SOHO/LASCO HALO CME 140418ab (Kevin Schenk)UCMEO 93001 40418 1930/40418 61325 81742 1771/ 170// 333// 4120840418 61233 81318 33118 12036 1112/99999(Frontsided)SOHO/LASCO observed two (2) HALO CMEs in close succession April 18, 2014.  The events are first seen in C2 at 13:25 UT as a bright loop in progress over the Southwest.  The front expands with extensions to a full HALO CME by 13:36 UT. The event continues into the C3 field beginning 13:30 to 17:42 UT leaving the C3 field of view at 30Rsun in the South.  April 18 2014 halo CME

  30. Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit UCSD IPS Data Fit Model Ecliptic Cuts ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary Density http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

  31. Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit UCSD IPS Data Fit Model Ecliptic Cuts ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary Density http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

  32. ENLIL Model Drivers WSA Model UCSD Model UCSD Data WSA Data In-Situ Data ucsd2bc coho2bc wsa2bc a3d2bc bnd.nc bnd.nc bnd.nc bnd.nc ENLIL cone2bc bnd.nc • At the KSWC there can be two different models (yellow) that can drive ENLIL (green) • Computational system shares data sets (grey), uses couplers (blue) CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014

  33. Better than IPS?

  34. SMEI Webpages - http://smei.ucsd.edu

  35. ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager Jackson,B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177-207. All sky view to within 2º (7.5Rs) of the Sun SMEI heritage Cut-away and schematic Characteristics Jackson,B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 257–275.

  36. ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager Night skythroughput tests Now “baselined” on NOAA’s DSCOVR follow-on spacecraft ASHI tests with a cooled CCD camera Jackson, B.V. et al., 2014, Space Weather Workshop, NOAA Buffington, A., et al., 2009, Proc. of SPIE, Vol. 7438, 74380O-1-12, doi: 10.1117/12.825362 Optic before diamond turning Diamond turned optic Optic stray light tests

  37. Summary: IPS-ENLIL remotely-sensed analyses: A ground-based technique. Can provide low-resolution velocity and density analysis, and accurate forecasts of time-variable heliospheric structure. The IPS analysis can provide input to 3D-MHD models. Better, and more abundant IPS data, should be available in the near future. Currently both the IPS and ENLIL with cone model inputscan complement one another. In the future higher-resolution autonomous systems are available.

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