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Bernard V. Jackson, P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, John M. Clover

Forecasting Transient Heliospheric Solar Wind Parameters at the Locations of the Inner Planets. Bernard V. Jackson, P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, John M. Clover Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA and Munetoshi Tokumaru

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Bernard V. Jackson, P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, John M. Clover

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  1. Forecasting Transient Heliospheric Solar Wind Parameters at the Locations of the Inner Planets Bernard V. Jackson, P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, John M. Clover Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA and Munetoshi Tokumaru Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Japan Bernie http://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/ http://stesun5.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/index-e.html/ Paul Andy John Munetoshi

  2. Introduction: IPS and SMEI remote-sensing data analyses Tomographic technique used to determine Solar Wind 3D structure Comparisons and forecasts at the inner planets

  3. Current STELab IPS Heliospheric Analyses New STELab IPS array at Toyokawa - photo February 17, 2007 (array now operates well – year-round operation)

  4. Let’s start with what we observe and analyze DATA IPS line-of-sight response STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji STELab IPS array systems

  5. Density Turbulence • Scintillation index, m, is a measure of level of turbulence • Normalized Scintillation index, g = m(R) / <m(R)> • g > 1  enhancement in Ne • g  1  ambient level of Ne • g < 1  rarefaction in Ne (CourtesyofP.K.Manoharan) A scintillation enhancement with respect to the ambient wind identifies the presence of a region of increased turbulence/density and a possible CME along the line-of-sight to the radio source.

  6. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339 Heliospheric C.A.T. Analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS 14 July 2000 13 July 2000

  7. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

  8. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

  9. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

  10. Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation • Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines. Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353.

  11. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Dunn, T.J., et al., 2005, Solar Phys., 227, 339 Potential field modeling added

  12. Crider, D.H., et al., 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 108(A12), 1461 Solar Wind Pressure derived from the MGS Magnetometer at Mars

  13. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2007, Solar Phys., 2007, 241: 385–396 IPS 3D Reconstruction 28 May 2003 ‘Halo’ CME event sequence Density derived from IPS |

  14. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2007, Solar Phys., 241: 385–396 IPS 3D-Reconstruction 20 May – 05 June 2003, (28 May ‘Halo’ CME) Pressure derived from IPS at Mars Solar Wind Pressure (ρ = 2 X 106 nV2)

  15. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2007, Solar Phys., 2007, 241: 385–396 IPS 3D-Reconstruction 12 September – 26 September 2002 period Density Pressure (ρ = 2 X 106 nV2)

  16. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ UCSD Web pages UCSD IPS analysis Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  17. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ UCSD time-dependent IPS Web forecast Velocity model time-series G-level sky map Real-time tomographic analysis of the solar wind on April 29-30, 2004 showing a halo CME response in the interplanetary medium. Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  18. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339 Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Heliospheric C.A.T. Analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. Innovation STELab IPS * 13 July 2000 Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

  19. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Innovation Innovation Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

  20. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Innovation  Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present.The CCMC is running this forecast model with UCSD help.

  21. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Being evaluated at the CCMC Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Innovation Density Forecast Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present. Velocity Forecast

  22. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Being evaluated at the CCMC Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Innovation Density Density Forecast Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present. Velocity Velocity Forecast

  23. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Density overview UCSD IPS analysis Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  24. http://ips.ucsd.edu/Earth Velocity and Density Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  25. http://ips.ucsd.edu/Mercury Velocity and Density Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  26. http://ips.ucsd.edu/Mars Velocity and Density Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  27. http://ips.ucsd.edu/Earth Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  28. http://ips.ucsd.edu/Mercury Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  29. http://ips.ucsd.edu/Mars Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  30. http://smei.ucsd.edu/ The Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) Mission (Solar Phys., 225, 177-207) B. V. Jackson, A. Buffington, P. P. Hick Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA. R.C. Altrock, S. Figueroa, P.E. Holladay, J.C. Johnston, S.W. Kahler, J.B. Mozer, S. Price, R.R. Radick, R. Sagalyn, D. Sinclair Air Force Research Laboratory/Space Vehicles Directorate (AFRL/VS), Hanscom AFB, MA G.M. Simnett, C.J. Eyles, M.P. Cooke, S.J. Tappin School of Physics and Space Research, University of Birmingham, UK T. Kuchar, D. Mizuno, D.F.Webb ISR, Boston College, Newton Center, MA P.A. Anderson Boston University, Boston, MA S.L. Keil National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM R.E. Gold Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD N.R. Waltham Space Science Dept., Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, UK The SERP/STP Coriolis spacecraft at Vanden-berg prior to flight. The SMEI baffles are circled. The large NRL radiometer Windsat is on the top of the spacecraft.

  31. Data!! Lots of Data!! Jackson, B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177 Launch 6 January 2003 1 gigabyte/day; now ~4 terabytes  Sun C1 C2 C3 Sun | V Simultaneous images from the three SMEI cameras.

  32. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224 Frame Composite for Aitoff Map Blue = Cam3; Green= Cam2; Red = Cam1 D290; 17 October 2003

  33. SMEI first light composite image Jackson, B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177 Composite all-sky map 2 Feb 2003 from the three SMEI cameras.

  34. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177 Brightness fall-off with distance  A very tiny signal

  35. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224 27-28 May 2003 CME events brightness time series for select sky sidereal locations With all contaminant signals eliminated, SMEI brightness is shown with a long-term temporal base removed. Data points are obtained on each SMEI orbit every 102-minutes, and the data here show a CME that has passed the Earth and is measured in situ. (1 S10 = 0.46 ± 0.02 ADU)

  36. Heliospheric 3D reconstruction Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339 Thomson-scattering 30º LOS Weighting 60º Line of sight “crossed” components on a reference surface. Projections on the reference surface are shown. These weighted components are inverted to provide the time-dependent tomographic reconstruction. 90º

  37. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224 2003 May 27-28 CME events SMEI density 3D reconstruction of the 27-28 May 2003 halo CMEs as viewed from 30º above the ecliptic plane about 30º west of the Sun-Earth line. SMEI density (remote observer view) of the 27-28 May 2003 halo CMEs LASCO C3

  38. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224 27-28 May 2003 CME event period 12-hour cadence, 7º x 7º lat, long SMEI proton density reconstruction for the 27-28 May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and Windin-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation.

  39. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224 27-28 May 2003 CME event period 12-hour cadence, 7º x 7º lat, long SMEI proton density reconstruction for the 27-28 May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and Windin-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation.

  40. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224 27-28 May 2003 CME event period Full SMEI data set, 6-hour cadence, 3º x 3º lat, long SMEI proton density reconstruction for the 27-28 May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and ACE L2in-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation.

  41. Summary: a) IPS allows derivation of global velocity, and through conversion of g-level to density – global densities, at low resolution from STELab data, including for CMEs. b) SMEI allows derivation of global densities including that from CMEs at high spatial and temporal resolution using Thomson-scattering brightness. c) The IPS analysis run in near real-time allows a low- resolution forecast of velocity and density all the time at the inner planets – right now! Wish List – higher resolution, dedicated calibrated systems, greater Earth longitude coverage or a space- based system. A breakthrough to determine magnetic field remotely. More resources! $$$, ¥¥¥, NT$

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