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Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka. Key characteristics: 20 million people Mid-range GDP per capita Mountainous terrain in the center Religious breakdown: 70% Buddhist; 13% Hindu; 10% Muslim; 7% Christian Off the coast from Tamil region of Indian mainland

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Sri Lanka

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  1. Sri Lanka • Key characteristics: • 20 million people • Mid-range GDP per capita • Mountainous terrain in the center • Religious breakdown: 70% Buddhist; 13% Hindu; 10% Muslim; 7% Christian • Off the coast from Tamil region of Indian mainland • Commodity-driven economy that has experienced rapid development • Economically most developed in the West around the capital, Colombo

  2. Ethnic geography of Sri Lanka Tamil areas Indian Tamils Muslim areas Sinhala areas

  3. Historical developments in Sri Lankan politics • Colonized by Britain in 1815 as the island of Ceylon • Independence from Britain in 1948 with a new democratic government; Ceylon citizenship act disenfranchises Indian Tamils • Prime Minister Bandaranaike (elected in 1956) introduces Sinhala only act • 1958 riots lead to thousands of Tamil deaths; PM Bandaranaike assassinated by a Buddhist monk in 1959 • Marxist Sinhalese revolts in the 1970s and late 1980s leads to mass repression • Tamil militancy develops in the 1970s in response to “standardization” policies that reduce Tamil influence The Tamil Tigers became famous for their female fighters

  4. Origins of the Sri Lankan conflict • Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) envisions an autonomous Tamil homeland in Sri Lanka (1972) • Tamil New Tigers formed by Prabhakaran in 1972 modeled in part on the Marxist revolutionaries • The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) launch an insurgency beginning in 1983 The rise of the Tamil Tigers • Tamil advantages under the colonial period (English) • Religious justifications for Buddhist superiority entrenched in national mythology of Sinhalese as a vulnerable chosen people • Lack of Tamil faith that democratic participation can bring any relief from discrimination Long-term causes • Destruction of the Jaffna library by police (1981) • “Black July” 1983 massacre against Tamils kill several thousand • Government experience fighting the JVP rebellion leads to mistreatment of civilians Short-term causes

  5. Patterns of conflict • Tigers had the world’s most highly sophisticated suicide bombing operation; ex: assassination of Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi (1991), Sri Lankan President Primadasa (1999) • Tigers developed their own navy “sea tigers,” merchant marine “sea pigeons,” and airforce Terrorism and conventional warfare • An Indian peacekeeping force intervenes 1987-1990 without Tiger agreement; Tamils to receive some autonomy; Tigers to disarm in a political agreement • Leads to second Marxist insurrection (JVP) because of fears of Indian imperialism • Indian withdrawal after battles with the Tamil Tigers leave 1200 Indian troops dead Indian intervention • Tigers reject the rigid Hindu cast system and traditional gender roles • Active use of child soldiers; including by abduction • LTTE funding from the large Tamil diaspora abroad • Tamils built a functioning parallel state under which many Tamils lived • Sri Lankan army uses mass punishment of civilians Civilian involvement

  6. Counterfactual exercise In what ways could this conflict end?

  7. The end of the Sri Lankan war • Failed peace agreement (2002) • Context of international rejection of terror after 9/11 • Mediated by Norway; with a Nordic monitoring mission • Tigers withdraw from peace talks in 2003 and begin to regroup • Internal Tamil fighting starts between Northern and Eastern forces; Eastern defection to government • Hard-liner MahindaRajapaksa elected as PM (2004) • Fighting begins again in 2006, and the Tamils assert statehood • Results of the conflict • Conflict formally lasted 26 years • About 100,000 people killed, mostly civilians • The military victory • By 2008, the government masses forces in the North • Tamil Tigers are defeated and Prabhakaran is killed, May 2009 • 40,000 civilians (mostly Tamil) killed in the final stages of the war • The Tamil National Alliance gives up its demand for statehood in favor of a federal solution

  8. Issues in the resolution of the Sri Lankan war • Tiger use of civilians as shields and as shock troops • Systematic army artillery attacks in civilian areas lead to mass casualties • No real attempts have been made to bring perpetrators of massacres to justice • Use of ethnic cleansing and “internal colonization” to dilute the Tamil communal threat • Attacks on the Muslim community from both sides Civilian protection • Can the Tamil minority regain confidence in the Sri Lankan state? • Does it matter to the state if the Tamils are reintegrated? • Does truth-telling in the conflict matter to its resolution? • No real progress on this front to date Integration of the Tamil minority Prabhakaran defeated

  9. Assessing the virtues of military victories • Benefits and Liabilities: • Probability of a more stable outcome • Government victories tend to be less stable, however • Popular relief at popular stability • Low incentives to deal with underlying grievances • The human rights question: is it ok to unequivocally destroy your opponents? Rajapaksa’s triumph?

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