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Meeting the Climate-Energy Challenge

Meeting the Climate-Energy Challenge. Henry D. Jacoby Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Norwegian Research & Technology Forum in cooperation with the Carnegie Institution 5 October 2004. Where are we?

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Meeting the Climate-Energy Challenge

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  1. Meeting the Climate-Energy Challenge Henry D. Jacoby Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology Norwegian Research & Technology Forum in cooperation with the Carnegie Institution 5 October 2004

  2. Where are we? Now: international fragmentation Longer term: must seek coherence Challenges to next stages of negotiation Complex coalitions of parties Sectorally differentiated policies Diverse instruments employed How might cooperative research help? Provide concepts and measures for comparing burdens under a complex policy mix Reconciling Approaches:One Element of a Research Roadmap

  3. Yes No Limited global trading Accession unlikely Weak CDM The Post-2012 Puzzle 2005 2008 2012 1st 2nd Compliance details Continuity difficult without US Russia ratifies? Kyoto (Annex B) Some will maintain commitm’ts Also rethink Complete rethink Kyoto (Non-Annex B)

  4. Who? Diverse sets of nations & coalitions EU, Japan, & rest of Annex B Kyoto group US & Australia Non-Annex B (developing countries) When? Once the US takes on substantial mitigation But no chance of joining Kyoto as it is What? Pre-Kyoto debate (equitable % reduction below 1990) largely irrelevant for next stage Not just targets . . . but actions When Negotiations Restart

  5. Prices Cap-and-trade systems CO2 & fuel taxes Regulations and standards Subsidies to low CO2 energy Voluntary schemes Controls on non-CO2 gases R&D and technology demonstration Flows to non-Annex B countries Development assistance Technology transfer programs Removal of fossil fuel subsidies Some related to national targets, some not Instrument Mix Now In Use Different by country and sector

  6. Modification of the Kyoto Protocol Softer targets or “aim” language Add national policies and measures Separate agreements on non-CO2 gases Contingent commitments by Non-Annex B parties Agreements between Kyoto parties & others All of the alternatives above Joint work on technology change Technology transfer/subsidy to Non-Annex B parties Industry or sector agreements Requires better measures of relative burdens What paths to Coherence?

  7. Develop a common portfolio of measures of economic/societal burden Cover the main instruments employed Take account of differentiation among sectors, partial coverage, and widely divergent costs Integrate with historical responsibility (?) Involves substantial research questions Consistent costing of complex instruments Aggregation of different measures Sorting out climate from other domestic policies Proper international welfare comparisons Available resources . . . & possible contribution Joint Economic Research:A Modest Proposal

  8. Thank you!

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