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On dependence of seismic activity on the 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays

European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2014 Vienna | Austria | 27 April – 02 May 2014. On dependence of seismic activity on the 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays Zhumabek Zhantayev, Galina Khachikyan, Nikolay Breusov Institute of the Ionosphere

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On dependence of seismic activity on the 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays

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  1. European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2014 Vienna | Austria | 27 April – 02 May 2014 On dependence of seismic activity on the 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays Zhumabek Zhantayev, Galina Khachikyan, Nikolay Breusov Institute of the Ionosphere National Center of Space Research and Technologies, Almaty, Kazakhstan,galina.khachikyan@gmail.com Session SM3.2/NH4.4

  2. Solar variability and earthquake counting rate as show the data of the global seismological catalog NEIC, 1973-2011yrs, 182933 events with M≥4.5 The long-term trends in earthquake counting rate and sunspot numbers are out of phase. In the 11 year solar cycle, the relatively quiet seismic activity takes place for moderate solar activity, but it increases at ~10% in solar minimum, and at ~5% in solar maximum [Khachikyan et al., 2014]

  3. Global Electric Circuit (GEC) - a candidate for physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships as was suggested by Markson, 1978; Rycroft et al., 2000; Harrison, 2004. Global Electric Circuit (Bering et al., 1998) Cosmic ray ionization is a crucial parameter of the GEC. On average, cosmic rays intensity varies in the 11 year solar cycle in the range of ~10%, that is in qualitative and quantitative agreement with ~10% variation of the earthquake counting rate in the 11 year solar cycle [Khachikyan et al., 2014].

  4. The concept of the Global Electric Circuit explains the statistical results by the DEMETER satellite Increasing electric current in the fair weather regions of the Global Electric Circuit due to increased electrical conductivity of surface air leads to changing ionosphere parameters and, thus, the conditions of the VLF radio waves propagation [Harrison et al. 2010; Rycroft and Harrison, 2012]. DEMETER: Decrease of natural VLF (~1.7 kHz) wave intensity related to 8400 earthquakes with M=>5.0 within 440 km of the epicenters [Piša et al., 2012].

  5. Suggestion 1: If earthquake occurrence is related to GEC operation, then the areas of earth’s crust destruction could be magnetically conjugate. 3 Result: The middle ocean ridges located in the southern hemisphere along the boundary of the Antarctic tectonic plate are magnetically conjugate with the areas of junction of continental orogens and platforms in the northern hemisphere. Close magnetic conjugacy exists between southern boundary of the Nazca tectonic plate and northern boundaries of the Cocos and Caribbean tectonic plates [Khachikyan et al., 2013]. Earth’s surface

  6. Suggestion 2:Since a conductivity along geomagnetic force lines (L) depends on its population, and since the L~2.0 is populated by the Anomaly Cosmic Rays (ACR), which intensity shows pronounced dependence on solar variability, occurrence of earthquakes in regions with L~ 2.0 could show pronounced variation in the 11 year solar cycle. 3 Earth’s surface Result: In 1973-2011 years, there were 20 earthquakes with M≥7.0 in regions with L=2.0-2.2. All of these events occurred only at the declining phase of the 11 year solar cycles, while were absent at the ascending phase [Khachikyan et al., 2010].

  7. Suggestion 3:Since the penetration of the solar wind energy into the Earth’s environment is described better in the Geocentric Solar Magnetosphere (GSM) coordinates, the spatial earthquake statistics also could be better evident in the GSM coordinate system. ZGSM Result: Earthquakes prefer occur then and there, when and where the geomagnetic Z-component in the GSM coordinates (ZGSM) reaches large positive value. Maximal possible magnitude of earthquake depends linearly on absolute ZGSM value in epicenter in the time of earthquake occurrence [Khachikyan et al., 2012].

  8. Main Results • In the 11 year solar cycle, earthquake counting rate varies in the range of ~10%, that is in qualitative and quantitative agreement with the 11 year variation of cosmic rays intensity. • In seismic areas penetrated by the geomagnetic force lines L= 2.0-2.2, which are populated by anomaly cosmic rays, strong (M≥7.0) earthquake occurrence is modulated by the 11 year solar cycle. • Geomagnetic conjugacy exists between certain tectonic structures. • At the globe, earthquakes prefer occur then and there, when and where the geomagnetic Z_GSM components are large and positive. • A possible maximal magnitude of earthquake (Mmax) shows positive linear dependence on absolute Z_GSM value in the epicenter in time of earthquake occurrence. • In conclusion: Statistical results support idea that earthquake occurrence is related somehow to the global electric circuit operation, but much work is required to solve this problem.

  9. References • Bering E.A., Few A.A., Benbrook J.R. The Global Electric Circuit. Physics Today. 1998, October, pp. 24-30. • Harrison R.G.The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate.Survey in geophysics. 2004, V. 25, pp.441-484. • Harrison, R. G., Aplin, K. and Rycroft, M. Atmospheric electricity coupling between earthquake regions and the ionosphere. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2010, 72 (5-6), pp.376-381. • KhachikyanG., Inchin A., and A.Lozbin. Spatial distribution of seismicity: relationships with geomagnetic Z-component in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system. International Journal of Geosciences. 2012, V.3, #5, pp. 1084-1088. http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijg • KhachikyanG.Ya., Zhakupov N.S., N.Zh. Kadyrkhanova. Geomagnetic conjugacy of modern tectonic structures. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics. 2013, #4 (2), pp.187–195. doi:10.5800/GT2013420097. http://dx.doi.org/10.5800/GT-2013-4-2-0097 • KhachikjanG., Inchin A., Zhakupov N., Kadyrkhanova N., L. Kaliyeva. Оcurrenceof strong earthquakes in regions with geomagnetic shell L~2.0: relation to the 11 year solar cycle. Proceedings of the 7-th Kazakhstan-Chinise International Symposium “Earthquake Prediction Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Assessment in Central Asia”. 2010, pp. 357-362. • KhachikyanG.Ya., Sadykova A.B., S. Dzhanabilova. Relationship of frequency of earthquake recurrence and seismic energy of the Earth with solar activity variations. Izdenis- Graduate School of Kazakhstan. 2014, # 1 (4), pp. 55-61 (in Russian). • Markson, R. Solar modulation of atmospheric electrication and possible implications for the Sun-weather relationship. Nature. 1978, V.273, pp. 103-109. • - Piša D., F. Neˇmec, M. Parrot, O. Santolik. Attenuation of electromagnetic waves at the frequency ~1.7 kHz in the upper ionosphere observed by the DEMETER satellite in the vicinity of earthquakes. Annals of geophysics, 2012, 55, 1, doi: 10.4401/ag-5276. • - Rycroft, M.J., S. Israelsson and C. Price. The global atmospheric electric circuit, solar activity and climate change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2000, V. 62, pp.1563-1576. • - Rycroft, M.J., and G. Harrison. Electromagnetic Atmosphere-Plasma Coupling: The Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit. Space Science Reviews. 2012, June, V. 168, Issue 1-4, pp 363-384.

  10. Thank you for attention! Contact information: Galina Khachikyan Tel. (727) – 380-30-54 e-mail: galina.khachikyan@gmail.com

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