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Astro2010 Response

Astro2010 Response. MPS/AST COV 7 February, 2011 Jim Ulvestad. Budget Outlook & Expectations. Actual budget for FY 2011 (started in October 2010) is presently unknown FY 2012 budget request released next week

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Astro2010 Response

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  1. Astro2010 Response MPS/AST COV 7 February, 2011 Jim Ulvestad

  2. Budget Outlook & Expectations • Actual budget for FY 2011 (started in October 2010) is presently unknown • FY 2012 budget request released next week • Given the general and scientific budget priorities in the US, it is likely that AST can support large fraction of Astro2010 only if we make significant reductions in current programs • Aiming for substantive portfolio review, focused on strategic implementation of Astro2010 recommendations, in 2011/12 AST COV-Astro2010

  3. NSF Large Project Funding AST COV-Astro2010 • Funding is in separate (non-AST) line (MREFC), determined by NSF-wide strategy • There is no funding wedge available in MREFC until at least 2014 • Highly unlikely to have two astronomy construction projects in MREFC with major funding occurring simultaneously • Operations funding after construction must come directly from the baseline AST budget

  4. Long-Term MREFC Funding From FY11 NSF request AST COV-Astro2010 • Typical annual MREFC funding is ~$200M • At that level, no significant wedge begins to appear until FY14-FY15

  5. Astro2010 Ground Recommendations AST COV-Astro2010 • Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)—Large, MREFC • Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP)—Large, non-MREFC • ~30% share of CCAT—Medium • ~$20M augmentation to existing and small programs—Small • 25% federal investment in one Giant Segmented Mirror (GSMT) candidate—Large, MREFC • 25% federal share in Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescope Array (ACTA)—Large, non-MREFC • Large, medium, and small programs interleaved roughly according to priority and time sequence given by Astro2010 in the case when the AST budget does not follow a doubling path

  6. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope - LSST • Vital Statistics: • 8.4 meter primary mirror • 3.3 gigapixel digital camera • 3.5 deg field of view • 30 terabytes of data nightly • Comprehensive operations simulator • Complete coverage of the visible sky twice per week • Nominal 10-yr lifetime • To be located on Cerro Pachon, Chile • Broad science drivers from solar system to the structure of the universe. • Multiple transients/second every night! AST COV-Astro2010

  7. Large Synoptic Survey Telescope AST COV-Astro2010 • Not ‘just another telescope’, but a truly unique discovery engine • US world leadership; nobody else is doing this • Transformative in the science • New parameter space always leads to surprises – LSST opens the time domain • Myriad rapidly delivered alerts – follow-up critical • Superb image quality with rigorously controlled systematics • Massive data – data enabled science – new ways of doing astronomy • Transformative in education & outreach • Widespread immediate access • An alert stream for everyone • Citizen science for tackling massive datasets • Transformative in data enabled science and cyberinfrastructure • Massive amounts of data • Near-real-time processing • Fast dissemination to multiple data access centers

  8. Large Synoptic Survey Telescope AST COV-Astro2010 • Big project (~$1m per week); many government offices; accountability for public funds => lots of paperwork • NSF is working actively with DOE to synchronize schedules and coordinate efforts on the telescope and on the camera • Design & Development is funded through FY 2012 from an NSF award and from DOE headquarters and laboratory support • NSF process (MREFC) laid down in the Large Facilities Manual • We are working through the approval chain to proceed along the MREFC path • The earliest budget by which we can get National Science Board approval and the NSF Director’s agreement to request funding is FY 2014 • Astronomy is a small piece of the NSF • LSST may be the top astronomy project, but keeping it a priority in the context of every proposed facility across every field NSF supports takes continuous attention • LSST was the Astro2010 top priority and we are working aggressively to move it forward, including assigning a dedicated program officer

  9. AST Mid-Scale: Background AST COV-Astro2010 • Problem: NSF has no clear mechanism for funding projects above MRI and below MREFC ($4-135M) • In the past, AST has accepted and funded mid-scale proposals on a one-off basis, not part of a competition • Typical proposal is $5-15M over ~5 yrs • Awards based on ad hoc reviews/reverse site visit panels, and availability of funds • No stable funding line established • Past AST total Mid-Scale investment ~$15-20M/yr (highly leveraged, including MREFC Design & Development)

  10. Mid-Scale in Astro 2010 AST COV-Astro2010 • Second priority: Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP) • Recommended ramp up to $40M/yr over decade • Should be a competed program • A2010 received 29 white papers for mid-scale projects, and mentioned 8 as “compelling” : • BIGBOSS; CMB Project(s); ExoPlanet initiatives; FASR; HAWC; HERA; Adaptive Optics; NanoGRAV • Also CCAT, recommended to go first and not be competed. • 25m submillimeter telescope • Currently in D&D phase • NSF share ~$37M of $140M construction cost • COV2008 recommended against MSIP at that time

  11. Mid-Scale: Current Status AST COV-Astro2010 • In Blue (“Old”): VERITAS, SDSS, QUIET, ACT(Pol), MWA, PAPER, DESDM, POLARBEAR, VAO, HETDEX, SKA/GSMT/LSST D&D • In Red (“New”): MWA & PAPER Buildout, DESDM Ops, GSMT D&D, LSST bridge, CCAT (= not total demand, includes 1/8 of A2010 “compelling” projects)

  12. Funding Prospects AST COV-Astro2010 • Typical spending on mid-scale projects and development of future large facilities, is ~ $20M, vs A2010 $40M • If Facilities and Grants are off limits (near term), then • Any increase must come from AST budget growth, • Or, from re-programming from programs such as the following (total ~ $21M): • TSIP (~$5M) • UROs (~$10M) • ReSTAR (~$3M) • Gemini Instr (~$3M)

  13. Next Steps AST COV-Astro2010 • Currently no new funds to add to Mid-Scale line • Budget re-arrangement could occur in a general Portfolio Review (2012?), but this is zero sum, and takes time to execute • NSF-wide Mid-Scale program being discussed, but unlikely before 2013 (and not geared to AST needs) • Funding wedge for competition could open up from completion of current programs, but • would take time • implies no new starts for several years • Conclusion: Probably no competition before 2013-2014 at earliest

  14. GSMT • Two U.S. and one European projects • Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) - Chile • Thirty-Meter Telescope (TMT) - Hawaii • European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) - Chile • Astro2010 recommendation • Seek 25% public share in one project • Share would come from investment in design/development, construction (MREFC), instrumentation, or operations • Undertake “immediate” evaluation of projects • AST plan • Receive proposals for design/development • Conduct programmatic review • Work towards possible MREFC funding in 2017(+) AST COV-Astro2010

  15. GSMT • Review criteria: select project with … • Significant opportunities for wider U.S. community • Best cost/risk/impact tradeoff for U.S. government • Review elements • Scientific impact of the telescope / proposed instruments • Nature of a public share, benefits to the community • Technical feasibility and soundness of design • Cost/technical risk assessment and mitigation strategy • Maturity of financial and administrative structures • Commitment to education, diversity, and public outreach • Target timeline • Letters of intent: late July, 2011 • Proposals due: late September, 2011 • Decisions announced in early 2012 AST COV-Astro2010

  16. Small Programs AST COV-Astro2010 • $8M (17%) increase in AAG • $5M (50%) increase in ATI. • $2M increase (10%) in Gemini contribution • UK withdrawal after 2012 • $1.5-2M increase in Telescope Systems Instrumentation • $2.5M for Theory & Computation Networks These all depend on a steadily increasing budget, so AST can make no commitments at this time

  17. OIR System AST COV-Astro2010 • Astro2010: Re-adjust balance of current vs. future facilities • This will require an overall AST portfolio review • Astro2010: Restructure Gemini, acquire increased Gemini share, and consider Gemini/NOAO consolidation • Share will increase from 50% to ~63% after 2012 because of UK withdrawal (increase of ~50 nights/year) • New structure of international partnership is under active discussion, as is Gemini/NOAO consolidation • The two are not easily decoupled, since NOAO is a US entity, but Gemini is a multi-lateral international observatory • International Gemini board has formed tiger team to consider and recommend new governance options • ESO reformulation may have significant impact

  18. Other Recommendations and Conclusions AST COV-Astro2010 • US participation in SKA construction not possible this decade in realistic budget scenarios • Complete next senior review before mid-decade • Fund lab astrophysics at or above previous levels • Refocus efforts on attracting members of underrepresented minorities to the field • Continue work to promote gender equity • Expose students to wide variety of career opportunities • Budget and plan for acquisition, processing, archiving, access and long-term curation of data • Develop/support multidisciplinary solar research • Form decadal survey advisory committee (charge overlaps AAAC)

  19. General Strategic Approach AST COV-Astro2010 • Probability is high that positive response to a significant set of the Astro2010 recommendations will require major re-thinking of the overall AST portfolio • Plan at present is to execute a strategic review of the entire AST portfolio, to outline the balance and set of programs desirable in the 2015, 2020, and 2025 time frames • Exact mechanism for the review is under discussion, but review will be expected to adhere to realistic budget scenarios and timescales for program changes • Science priorities of Astro2010 will play an important role • All programs within AST will be part of the review • Review completion expected in CY 2012

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