Astro2010 Report

1. Astro2010 Report Ed Seidel Assistant Director Mathematical and Physical Sciences National Science Foundation October 1, 2010

2. Astro2010 Decadal Survey • Sixth in a series providing recommendations for next decade of US astronomy • Executed by National Research Council, with funding from NSF, NASA, DOE • Chaired by Roger Blandford • Unprecedented community input, via Astro2010 panels and community submissions • Key new elements • Independent cost/readiness assessments • Effort to fit into defined budget wedge Rome-Seidel

3. New Worlds, New Horizons Rome-Seidel • Cosmic Dawn • Searching for the first stars, galaxies, black holes • How did the universe come to be? • New Worlds • Seeking nearby, habitable planets • Physics of the Universe • General relativity, dark matter dark energy, inflation, etc

4. Astro2010 Ground-Based Results • Large projects, in priority order • Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) • Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP)—ultimate goal of ~$40M/yr • 25% NSF share in Giant Segmented Mirror Telescope (GSMT) • 25% federal (NSF+DOE) share in Advanced Cerenkov Telescope • Medium project—30% partnership in Cerro Chajnantor Atacama Telescope (CCAT), starting as soon as possible • Small (core) programs—enhance general grants $8M/yr, instrumentation grants $5M/yr, Gemini funding $2M/yr, Theory & Computation Networks $2.5M/yr • These recommendations fit ONLY if NSF astronomy budget doubles in next 10 years • If budget is less, then core programs have higher priority than GSMT • “Senior Review” recommended to prioritize/reduce current program commitments Rome-Seidel

5. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope - LSST • Vital Statistics: • 8.4 meter primary mirror • 3.3 gigapixel digital camera • 3.5 degree field of view • 30 terabytes of data nightly • Comprehensive operations simulator • Complete coverage of the visible sky twice per week • To be located on Cerro Pachon, Chile • Broad science drivers from solar system to the structure of the universe. Rome-Seidel

6. LSST Rome-Seidel • Enormous “discovery space” for transient objects, plus dark-energy science and near-Earth-object identification • Time domain astronomy: image entire sky 2x per week! • Significant design & development completed • Funding from NSF, NASA, DOE, partners • Cost ~$465M plus project-estimated ~$42M/yr (ops) • Telescope from NSF (2/3), camera from DOE (1/3) • Data ! • SDSS: 40TB data over decade; LSST does this each night! • Open access immediately to US and Chilean astronomers • Compare: EVLA open immediately to anyone. • International partnerships on O&M? Open skies? • Earliest start possible is ~2014; completion ~2020

7. GSMT Rome-Seidel • Next-generation large optical telescope, in 23-42m class, cost estimates of $1.1 billion (GMT) or $1.4 billion (TMT) by Astro2010 • Project-estimated capital costs are 30-40% lower • Operations costs not evaluated, but Astro2010 noted that project estimates were lower than standard metrics • Immediate “downselect” recommended for 25% federal investment (US optical construction largely private funds) • Should EELT partnership be a possible option? • Is it possible that GSMT will follow the path of ALMA? • MMA (US) + LSA (EU) + LMSA (JPN)  ALMA • Federal investment unlikely until LSST construction begins to ramp down, probably no earlier than ~2018-2019

8. International Partnerships Could government-funded international data infrastructure and services make a difference on access to data in this complex system? Rome-Seidel • Astro2010 made substantial comments on managing international collaboration (pages 3-4 and 3-5), with various models suggested • Significant complexities are involved when construction and operations costs are shared for a single facility (e.g., ALMA) • Some alternative models discussed • Coordinate access across suite of facilities • Share archival data • Time swaps between northern and southern hemispheres • Added complexities to be considered • Needs of scientists from less advantaged countries • Priority access for contributors for some initial period • Private, non-federal partners

9. Backups follow Rome-Seidel

10. Square Kilometre Array (SKA) Rome-Seidel • Astro2010 evaluation found that SKA (specifically, mid-frequency SKA dish array) is not ready technically • 70% confidence level of $5.9 billion for construction cost, vs. project submission of $2.2 billion • Large risks because of inadequate readiness • In view of large cost, readiness, and other priorities, recommended no significant US contribution to construction this decade • Also no recommendation for significant development investment even in the budget-doubling scenario • NSF will stay involved in planning as possible, but will be unable to allocate significant funds to SKA

11. Realistic Budget Scenarios Rome-Seidel • FY 2011 Budget Request: 7% increase for NSF, but 2.5% increase for AST • Conclusion: At best, it is likely that AST can support enhancement of core programs and operation of 1-2 highest-priority new facilities by early 2020s only by significant reduction of some current programs

12. Mid-Scale Innovations Program Rome-Seidel • No budget line or proposal opportunities in NSF at ~$4M-$135M level • NSF-wide issue is being studied by NSB • In AST, proposals now treated one-at-a-time • Advantage: No budget line needed in advance, and ability to shop proposals with partners • Disadvantage: Infrequent head-to-head competition • Successes in last decade: EVLA, NVO/VAO, VERITAS, CARMA, other cosmology • Future: Compete new programs with instrumentation on existing observatories?