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Path to a world without hunger . … 2 perspectives. www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition. “Things will get worse no matter what we do”. “Kids will see hunger only in museums”. Trillions of $ wasted! - no change 1 b still starving. Their population growth outstrips the food supply.
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Path to a world without hunger ... … 2 perspectives www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Things will get worse no matter what we do” “Kids will see hunger only in museums” Trillions of $ wasted! - no change 1 b still starving Their population growth outstrips the food supply We need to do more – there’s plenty of food Our $ Swiss bank accounts of corrupt dictators MDGs won’t be achieved Corrupt multinationals There’s progress. What about the broken promises? We never promised 0.7% and anyway we give more than anyone else “Trade not aid” Trade barriers, tilted playing field Aid does more harm than good 2008 recession
Economic dominance China & India 2040? World GDP $PPP per cap (est) 1500-2100 http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/
A nation in the poverty trap 83% [] 2000 Increasing poverty Fraction in extreme poverty [] 1970 30%
13 nations in the poverty trapIn 5 of them hunger is increasing www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings http://www.ifpri.org/datasets
Number of malnourished world-wide See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECD FAO data water-fetcher
World% undernourished FAO field measurements 22% 14%
2010 UN 86% 587b ? Number of people (billions) adequately nourished (FAO data)
Number fed & malnourished worldwide Prediction Target 33% 14% 11% 6%
Ethiopia: on the development ladder 80% 2000 Fraction in poverty Decreasing poverty 30%
43% Decreasing poverty Fraction in poverty 32%
GDP gap: % growth in poor countries exceeds developed % GDP/cap pa for poor nations vs % for rich 2008 GDP/capita:Developing countries 3.93% Developed countries -0.03 Advantage = 3.96% year
red bar is 1990; yellow is 2008 MDGs: World progress % < $1.25 /day 2005 % undernourished 2006 % deaths < 5y green bar is target for 2015 2006 H2O school pregnt
“Phantom aid” doesn't work • UK banks complicit in Nigerian corruption • Aid that isn’t given – broken promises • $ flow mostly benefits the rich nation • Aid with strings attached, contingent on UN votes, WB loans, unfair trade • Dumped food surplus local economy • Famine aid isn’t intended for development • Multinational $ → dictators for concessions • $ → to rich nation lobbyists to benefit MNCorpns Paul Collier: The bottom billion
Corrupt heads of state - Rich Accept personal/campaign “inducements” to allow “bribery” of decision makers at home & abroad $1000s & Poor Accept “bribes” to give trade concessions that impoverish their people
Aid that does work • Transparent , open bids & accountable • Partnerships not paternalism • SMART objectives: 8 MDGs; @@ objectives, @@ markers, • Strategies revised annually - both partners • Externally monitored • Not self-serving • Firm long commitments: MV, Grameen
Agents of change • The MDGs and beyond • The Millennium Village project • Grameen Family of social enterprises • Billionnairephilanthropists & foundations • Innovations: agric & ... dissemminate instantly • Passionate & influential voices for change • Scientists & students bring their energy
% Infant mortality < 5 years Still poverty trapped http://www.childinfo.org/mortality_infantmortality.phpalso www.gapmminder.org Singapore India USA
Porkbarrelling & Swiss bank a/c’s Tanks & rockets for right wing regimes, invasions for “freedom & democracy”, & depose “socialists” Treaties force unfair tariffs & trade. taxpayers in poor countries $ • $ commodities dictators $ taxpayers in rich (Nato?) countries multi-nationals • $ numbered bank a/c’s • $ “military-industrialcomplex” • $ • $ concessions Rich nationpoliticians government election funds,inducements • $ Share-holders • $
5 Nations where hunger is increasing http://www.ifpri.org/datasets