Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the UTLS (SCOUT-O3)

1. Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the UTLS (SCOUT-O3)

2. Project Objectives • Determination of air residence times in the TTL and assessment of the transport of very short-lived ozone-depleting substances (VSLS) through the TTL • The influence of clouds on the tropical UTLS • Understanding the stratospheric water vapour trend and its consequences • The stratospheric aerosol layer - role of the TTL and possible TTL changes • Past UV changes, variability and trends – Improved understanding of UV modulation by aerosols and clouds • Ozone variability and past changes at mid-latitudes • Interannual variability in polar processes and likely changes in a changing atmosphere • Improved understanding of the Brewer-Dobson and general stratospheric circulation • Stratosphere / troposphere coupling - past and future • Predictions, based on a new generation of CCMs, to consider (a) ozone recovery (Montreal Protocol), (b) the effect of climate change on the recovery (Kyoto protocol), and (c) the impact of the ozone change on surface UV

3. The management

4. General Structure

5. Act. 1 Ozone, climate and UV predictions (Dameris, DLR & Langematz, FUB) • WP 1.1 Validation and Intercomparison (WP leaders: Butchart, UKMO & Eyring, DLR) • WP 1.2 Model development (WP leaders: Giorgetta, MPIMET & Manzini, INGV) • WP 1.3 Scenarios (WP leaders: Hauglustaine, CNRS & Brühl, MPIC) • WP 1.4 Simulations (WP leaders: Dameris, DLR & Chipperfield, ULEEDS) • WP 1.5 Protocols (WP leaders: Sausen & Dameris, DLR) • WP 1.6 Particles (WP leaders: Pitari, ULAQ & Timmreck, MPIMET) • WP 1.7 Coupled modes (WP leaders: Braesicke & Pyle, UCAM) • WP 1.8 Detection (WP leaders: Braesicke & Pyle, UCAM) • WP 1.9 Tropical analyses (WP leaders: Langematz, FUB & Harris, UCAM) • Act. 2 SCOUT-O3 Tropical (Schiller, FZJ; Peter, ETH-Z; & Pommereau, CNRS) • WP 2.1 Campaign preparation (Peter, ETHZ & Pommereau, CNRS) • WP 2.2 Aircraft Tropical Campaign (MacKenzie, ULANC & Schiller, FzJ) • WP 2.3 Aircraft Scientific Transfer Flights (MacKenzie, ULANC & Schiller, FZJ) • WP 2.4 SCOUT-O3 Balloon campaigns (Oelhaf, FzK & Pommereau, CNRS) • WP 2.5 Satellite, ship and ground-based observations (De Mazière, BIRA & Hauchecorne, CNRS) • WP 2.6 Tropical Modelling (Peter & Brunner ETHZ)

6. 1. Overall Objectives Origin of strat H2O, reason for long term change, Troposphere-to-Stratosphere Transport 2. Local processes Convection, cirrus, dehydration, H2O injection vs slow radiative lifting. Is vertical transport across TTL efficient? Where and when? What needs to be measured: H2O, clouds, tracers. How: aircraft and short duration balloons in TTL, Maritime continent vs continental convection, Hector. 3. Large scale quasi-horizontal transport Global picture, tropical barrier, evidence of STE on isentropic surface. What needs to be measured? Where and when? How: satellites, long duration balloons, GB stations and the transfer flights of aircraft. 4. Work plan and strategic discussions Preparatory phase (incl. WPs). Scientific studies: trajectory modelling, 3d strat-trop modelling. Aircraft planning and decisions., balloon planning and decisions. Links to TWPICE, AURA, Envisat, AMMA etc. Scout-O3 Tropical

7. Science Activity 2: Tropics WP structure and links to other science activities predictions (input) chemistry & ptcls (lab work) CTMs WP2.7 tropical modelling (preparation / intensive phase / interpretation) WP2.2 tropical a/c national funding WP2.1 campaign preparation predictions (advanced) WP2.5 balloons WP2.4 small balloons AMMA WP2.3 a/c transfer extratropics WP2.6 global tropical observations: satellites, research vessel, ground-based 1st phase (18 month) intensive phase data evaluation interpretation/prediction 0 12 24 months 36 48 60

8. Field Measurements

9. Balloons – Management and Schedule 16/17 Sept 04 SCOUT-O3 Selection of priorities 20/23 Sept AMMA meeting, Dijon Oct Meeting with CNES balloon direction : request for preliminary studies, possible launch areas, logistics, helium, requirements for payloads, cost evaluation, … Nov French proposal to PNCA / CNES (selection Jan/Feb) Jan-Feb 2005 Tropical balloon campaign preliminary definition: selection of options, nb of flights, combination of payloads … MIR project meeting (def. of payloads and development plan) April 2005 Tropical balloon campaign planning document Generelles Problem balloon science stark unterfinanziert in SCOUT

10. BALLOONS Small B and H. Sondes AMMA Wet, monsoon period, Jul-Aug 06 (Niger) MIR Equator belt, Jan-Mar 07, Seychelles Large Balloons Teresina May/June 07 Lessons from 05 campaign

11. SCOUT-O3 Teresina 2007 Campaign Large Balloons Science Added value Core composition of instruments Tropospheric weather and QBO Further Actions

12. Main SCOUT Aim for BSOs: TTL and the tropical pipe above equatorial Southern America: Study of transport and photochemistry a third tropical case to be studied after SCOUT-Darwin and SCOUT-AMMA campaigns

13. Primary scientific objectives(For details cf. Section 3 of Balloon Planning Document) • 1. Chemistry issues: • halogen chemistry in the tropical UT to MS (shorter lived halogenated source gases, BrO, IO, ClO, ClONO2, HCl, HOCl) • stratospheric halogen budgets and trend (Cly, Bry, Iy) • NOy chemistry in the UTLS: (NO, NO2, HNO3, HO2NO2, N2O5, PAN) and the effects of biomass burning and lightning on the TTL • HOx chemistry: OH, HO2, H2O2, acetone • 2. Transport mechanisms within TTL and between TTL/LS • tracer observations and tracer-tracer correlations (CFCs, HCFCs, chlorinated solvents, N2O, CH4, SF6, CO2, CO, H2, brominated source gases, NMHCs, acetone, ..), biomass burning effects (added value) • hydrogen budget, (de)hydration (H2O, H2 + CH4)and theirisotopic fractionation) • 3. Sulfate layer, cirrus clouds and microphysics • OCS, HNO3, cloud microphysical and optical properties • Subvisible aerosol/cloud layers in the tropical LS

14. H2O and other gases in the TTL • How does H2O enter the stratosphere? • What processes determine the mixing ratio? Overshooting convection directly to stratosphere or transport within the TTL through the cold point around the maritime continent and slow ascent? • Where to make observations and when in order to decide between different hypotheses?

15. Added value from large balloon payloads to be launched from Teresina • Observations truly in the inner tropics (~5°S) (how isolated is TTL and tropical pipe area over continent?) • Dedicated rather (but not exclusively) to the ‚background‘ state of the TTL and TLS (Tropical Lower Stratosphere) than to active convective regions on site (exceptions possible) • Linking of TTL to Tropical LS (hardly provided by aircraft observations) • Comprehensive (almost complete) and accuratedescription of the composition of the TTL and TLS with very high to good vertical resolution (necessary to constrain models with photochemically/ /microphysically active species and tracers of different lifetimes) • Measurements of water isotopes for deducing tape recorder signal • Superior accuracy vs. satellite measurements in LS and TTL

16. Payloads/Instruments (Details) • In-situ payload #1(100 or 150Z balloon) (UFra, FZJ, Univ. Reims) • BONBON (A. Engel, UFra): vertical profiles of a large suite of tracers with a wide range of lifetimes • ClO/BrO sensor (F. Stroh, FZJ): ClO, BrO • Pico-SDLA: H2O (tbc) • In-situ payload #2:(150Z balloon) (LPCE) • SPIRALE (V. Catoire, LPCE): vertical profiles of N2O, CH4, CO, NO, NO2, HNO3, HCl, ... at very high vertical resolution • Cirrus (aerosol) counter (J-B. Renard, LPCE) • Remote sensing payload(150Z or 400Z balloon) • MIPAS-B (H. Oelhaf, FZK): spatio-temporal distributions of tracers (N2O, CH4, CO, CFCs, SF6..), PAN, acetone, NMHCs, NOx, NOy, OCS, ..., H2O + isotopes, cloud parameters...) • Mini-DOAS: profiles and temporal evolution of (BrO, IO, OIO, NO2, ...) • TELIS (M. Birk et al., DLR/SRON/RAL): (OH, HO2, ClO, HCl, HOCl, BrO, HCN, N2O, CO, isotopes, ...) (new) • Cirrus (aerosol) counter (J-B. Renard, LPCE) (tbc)

17. Additional flights (outside of SCOUT-O3 funding) • LPMA/DOAS (C. Camy-Peyret, LPMAA) (ESA-BC2 shifted from Kiruna) • SALOMON (J.-B. Renard, LPCE/CNRS) (Envisat validation) • LPMA/IASI (IASA Validation)

18. Involved groups • BSO • IMK/FZK • UFra • ICG/FZJ • UHd • LPCE (SPIRALE, PC) • UReims • TELIS teams (DLR/SRON/RAL) • Meteo: FUB tbc • Brazilians (INPE, CPTEC, …)

19. Teresina Site (5°S) • First tropical campaign carried out within the ESABC-framework from Teresina in June 2005: 5 flights within 17 days: MIPAS-B, SPIRALE, LPMA/DOAS, TRIPLE, and Ozone and Water Sampler. • Teresina provides added value to AMMA-linked campaign: isolated tropical air masses in LS

20. Important Dates • Operational campaign period: 12 May – 6 (13) June 2008 (best trade off between scientific needs and logistical constraints) • Milstones as deduced from recent planning meeting: • Updated packing list due: 7 Jan. 08 • loading of the container in Aire /Adour , week 10 (3 March 2008) • departure from France ( Le Havre) : week 12 • Arrival at  Fortaleza : week 15 • Arrival at Timon airport ( TERESINA base) : week 17 • AIR freight : 4 weeks  after reception of the packing list are needed to obtain the green light. • The arrival of CNES team is scheduled week 18 (end April) • Base open to scientists: early May (precise date still to be defined) • First op. Day: May 12 • MIPAS payload to be ready for flight: week 21 (May 19)

21. Planning background:Meteorology and QBO Ingredients: • Tropospheric weather • Scientific issues (pattern of convective activity over Amazon basin affecting TTL) • Operational constraints (launch and recovery conditions) • QBO • Scientific issues (QBO modulating ascent rates in tropical pipe) • Operational constraints (flight authorization, recovery areas, boomerang possibilities) • Biomass burning • CNES constraints

22. Surface Weather Total (green) and convective (red) precipitation • Teresina: (5°S, 43°W) • Dry season: June – Sept., biomass burning peaking in Oct./Nov. • Wet season: Nov.- May, peaking Jan.-March • Convective events mainly Oct. - May

25. QBO and semi-annual wave updated ESABC-2 campaign Courtesy: K. Grunow, FU Berlin

26. to be expected in May/June 2008

27. QBO at Teresina 7/2002 – 7/2008 ESABC-2 campaign SCOUT Option A SCOUT Option B

28. Adapted planning (summer 2007) QBOAlthough a bit early to say we can expect: in spring 2008: westerlies in most of the stratosphere (perhaps with a rest of easterlies in the lowermost strat), easterlies only well above 10 hPa if we are lucky in fall 2008: westerlies at the bottom of the stratosphere with descending easterlies above ~ 20 hPaconclusio: in both cases long boomerang flights are uncertain, spring would be different QBO phase as compared to Ter2005

29. Flight polygon TERESINA 2008 for BSO= flight safety limits x

30. MIPAS : Boomerang trajectory in January 2002 with opening valve and ballasting operations

31. Further Actions(as of April 07) • Fixing and qualifying payloads • Detailed planning of SCOUT-Teresina campaign • Logistics • Tentative flight sequence (science/constraints) • Decision taking (SCOUT-O3/CNES/ESA) • Role of Brazilin institutions • Met support and Forecasts • Reporting • Data base issues • Draft concrete balloon planning document • CNES logistics (a.m.) and Scout Balloon core group meeting 16 May 07 (p.m.) • Balloon workshop (BSO+MIR: ~12 month post campaign)

32. UT/LS Chemistry in the Tropics ? ? WMO reports 2002&2007