The heterogeneity of the Population in Greece (A spatial approach)

1. The heterogeneity of the Population in Greece (A spatial approach) Byron Kotzamanis [1],Anastasia Kostaki [2], [1]Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses, Department of Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, Greece email: bkotz@prd.uth.gr [2]Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece , email: kostaki@aueb.gr 6th International Conference on Population Geographies Umeå, 14-17 June 2011

2. Backround • Τhe intense flows of internal migration during the post war years in Greece, combined with • selective emigration and repatriation of Grεeks living abroad, and • the massive entry of foreigners since 1990, have radically transformed the post war population map of the country. These three phenomena led to a rapid urbanization and a substantial increase of the population heterogeneity. The first of these consequences (urbanisation) monopolized the interest and has received numerous research works in the last decades. In contrast, the second effect is much less studied.

3. Aim of the work The aim of this work is, using data of the last census (2001) to attempt an assessment of the heterogeneity of the population in Greece at the lowest possible spatial level (municipality) and to highlight the spatial patterns of combining the "game" of the three variables: • internal migration, • repatriation of Greeks living abroad (economic emigrants, political refugees, co-ethnics) • and immigration.

4. Data Population data for the 1034 municipalities of Greece from the 2001 census. The data concern a total of 10,934 million residents, where 762.000 people were foreigners (7% of the total population) and 10,172 million were Greek citizens (93%). From those having Greek citizenship: 446.000 were born abroad (4.6% of Greeks and 4.3% of total population) and 9,705 million were born in Greece (95,4% of Greeks and 88,8% of total population). Among Greek citizens born in Greece: 40% of them (3,878 million) at 2001 were living in another municipality than that of birth.

5. In order to highlight the various spatial patterns, the municipalities are classified using the following three classification criteria • the % of foreigners in the total population of the municipality • the % of Greeks born abroad to the total population of Greeks in the municipality • the % of Greeks residents, born in another municipality to the total population of Greeks in the municipality

6. Statistical Methodology In order to reveal the optimal grouping of the municipalities into homogenous groups, according to the three criteria considered, we use the procedure of Two-step Cluster Analysis, The analysis is implemented in the SPSS statistical package

7. Results Classification of the municipalities according to the % of foreigners in their total population

8. Map 1: Classification of the municipalities according the % of foreigners in their total population Figure 1: 95% confidence intervals for the means of the percentages of foreigners to the total population in the municipality. Table 1: Classification of municipalities according the proportion of foreign population

9. Map 1: Classification of the municipalities according the % of foreigners in their total population Map 1reflects the differential distribution of foreigners in Greece. In almost half of municipalities (comprising only 1 / 3 of the total population, Cluster 4) the % of foreigners are extremely low and well below the national average (7%). These municipalities, generally having small or medium sized population containing only 13% of the foreigners, while occupying the greater part of the country. These are laced at most in mountainous and semi-mountainous areas. In contrast, in two other groups of municipalities (Clusters 1 and 2) the % of foreigners are well above the national average (greater than 10%). These municipalities contain 1/4 of the total population but 36% of all foreigners. These are located in the most economically developed areas of the country, i.e. in the major urban centres of continental Greece, in the coastal zone of Peloponnesus, and islands, which are agricultural and/or touristy developed, as well as in areas neighbouring Albania.

10. Results Classification of the municipalities according the % of Greeks born abroad

11. Map 2: Classification of the municipalities according the % of Greeks born abroad Figure 2: 95% confidence intervals for the means of the percentages of Greeks not born in Greece to the total Greek population in the municipality. Table 2: Classification of municipalities according the percentages of Greeks not born in Greece to the totalGreek population in the municipality

12. Map 2: Classification of the municipalities according the % Greek citizens born abroad The spatial distribution of 466 thousand Greeks born abroad differs markedly from that of foreigners In the central and southern mainland Greece (as in almost all of the island municipalities with rare exceptions) the % of Greeks born abroad (as % of the population of Greek inhabitants) are very low (Cluster 4). On the other hand (Clusters 1 and 2), in an extremely small number of areas the % of Greeks born abroad are more than twice the national average. The municipalities of Clusters 1 and 2 are concentrated in two continental regions: Central -Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, with rare exceptions (some municipalities of Athens and Thessaloniki). The spatial concentration in these two regions of Northern Greece is reasonable. From these regions comes the vast majority of Greeks who left Greece after the World war II and then, in around 1980, repatriated together with their foreign born children. In addition, a large part of co-ethnics returnees from the former USSR, who obtained Greek citizenship were also settled here (due to the latter group are the high % in the eastern part of Thessaloniki as well as in some municipalities of Athens agglomeration).

13. Results Classification of the municipalities according the % of Greeks born in another municipality to the Greek population of the municipality born in Greece.

14. Map 3:Classification of the municipalities according the % of Greek citizens born in Greece but living in 2001 in another municipality than the municipality of their birth Figure 3: 95% confidence intervals for the means of the percentages of Greeks born in another municipality to the total born in Greece-Greeks in the municipality.

15. Table 3: Classification of municipalities according the percentages of Greeks born in another municipality in Greece to the total population of Greeks born in Greece in the municipality.

16. Map 3:Classification of the municipalities according the % of Greek citizens born in Greece but living in 2001 in another municipality than the municipality of their birth Among the total population of 10.934 million 10.172 million (93%) were Greek citizens and of these, 9.705 million were born in Greece (95.4% and 88.8% of the total population respectively). Of these, a very high percentage, (40% -3.878 million) were living in 2001 in another municipality than that of birth. But what is the weight of this group to the total population of the Greek inhabitants in the municipalities concerned? In the first two groups (Clusters 1 and 2) more than 42 out of 100 Greek residents in 2011 were born in another municipality. The units of this group are:i) relatively large sized and ii) located at most in the metropolitan areas of Athens and Thessaloniki, which also retained their native population and attracted the vast majority of internal migrants in the post war period.

17. Map 3:Classification of the municipalities according the % of Greek citizens born in Greece but living in 2001 in another municipality than the municipality of their birth In contrast in the units of Clusters 4 and 5 the proportion of Greeks born in another municipality than the residence one in 2001 is very low (less than 27%). These municipalities, usually contain small populations as they have special geo-morphological features (mostly mountainous or semi mountainous, with intense agricultural activity in the past) with no dynamic urban centers. In addition, they became the main feeders of the successive waves of intense internal migration in the first post war period (1940 -1980). Finally, in a third, relatively small group of municipalities (Cluster 3), the % of non native residents are below the national average, ranging from 27% to 41%. In the vast majority of these municipalities, there is a small or medium city center (usually the capital of the county) and, in contrast to the municipalities of clusters 1 and 2 (which maintained a large proportion of their natives and at the same time they received the largest part of the post war rural exodus from the rest of Greece) the municipalities of cluster 3 were both poles of ins and outs since their urban centers attracted a part of the exodus from their immediate inland.

18. Results Classification of the municipalities according the synthesis of their population based on all three criteria considered

19. Figure 4.1: 95% confidence intervals for the means of the percentages of foreigners in each municipality to the total population in the municipality (three criteria clustering). Map 4: The municipality profiles according to the synthesis of their population in 2001 census Figure 4.2: 95% confidence intervals for the means of the percentages of Greeks not born in Greece in each municipality, to the total Greek population in the municipality (three criteria clustering). Figure 4.3 : 95% confidence intervals for the means of the percentages of Greeks born in another municipality, to the total born in Greece-Greeks in the municipality (three criteria clustering).

21. The statistical analysis allowed us to classify the sections examined in five major groups (Map 4). The first group (Cluster 1) is extremely heterogeneous. It gathers 11% of the municipalities inhabited by 36% of the total population but where only 35 out of 100 residents in 2001 are natives. This group consists mainly of the majority of municipalities of the two largest metropolitan areas of Greece (Athens and Thessaloniki) which have experienced an explosive post war population growth, and secondarily by a small number of municipalities, dispersed all over Greece (but mostly in northern -western part of continental and coastal Crete). The 54 municipalities that constitute the second group (Cluster 2) are also heterogeneous, but in a lesser extend than those of Cluster 1. They are characterized by a particularly high % of Greeks born abroad and a relatively low proportion of natives, while the proportion of foreign residents is just below the national average. This group consists mainly of medium-sized municipalities in central - eastern Macedonia and Thrace, which experienced a strong emigration, a less intense rural exodus and a limited attraction for foreigners after 1990 (6% of total population to 2001). The huge % of Greek inhabitants born abroad (12%) can be attributed to the installation of a large part of natives repatriated who came together with their family members born abroad. In addition, the relative high proportion of persons born in another municipality (43% of the Greek population) can be attributed to the fact that these municipalities were attractive to people from their rural hinterland. Map 4: The municipality profiles according to the synthesis of their population in the 2001 census

22. The third group exhibit a peculiarity. The municipalities of this group (38% of the total) comprise a very small percentage of the population of Greece (just 14%) but 1 out of 9 residents in average is foreigner. In addition, the percentage of Greek residents born abroad is minimal, while people born in these municipalities represent 70% of the total population. The units that make up this group are mainly concentrated in central and southern Greece and the islands (Ionian, Cyclades, Crete) and secondarily near the border with Albania (Epirus and western Macedonia). With the exception of areas bordering Albania, the majority of municipalities of this group are lowland or coastal usually characterized by either modern agricultural activities (especially Thessaly, Crete, southern and eastern Peloponnese) or by a strong tourism specialization (Cyclades, Ionian, Greece, Macedonia) or even by a high concentration of employment in the secondary sector (municipalities around the Athens agglomeration). Those units had not experienced strongly emigration, while restrained -due to the above qualifications- a big part of the native population (see the low percentages of both Greeks born abroad as well as residents born in another municipality). Map 4: The municipality profiles according to the synthesis of their population in the 2001 census

23. Map 4: The municipality profiles according to the synthesis of their population in the 2001 census The municipalities of the fourth group (20% of the total) which account the ¼ of the total population (Cluster 4) are relatively homogeneous. The % of foreigners are very low and more than 96 out of 100 residents are Greeks (almost all of them born in Greece), while the percentage of Greek natives are relatively high (63%). These units are placed at most in northern Greece (Macedonia and Thrace). They have some common features with the municipalities of the second group (high emigration and a less intense rural exodus). However they differ from them as: a) they have a lower proportion of foreigners (4% of total population) and b) they are less attractive to the population of their rural hinterlands as well to the repatriated people originated from them.

24. Map 4: The municipality profiles according to the synthesis of their population in the 2001 census The fifth and largest group (43% of municipalities, but comprising only 16% of the total population) is the most homogenous as more than 96% of their population are Greeks, 95 out of 100 residents are born in Greece, and from them the vast majority (86%) are natives. This group consists of small municipalities in mainland mountainous and semi-mountainous central and southern Greece, and then of insular municipalities (Ionian Islands, Aegean islands) and municipalities in central and southern Crete. The units of this group are out of the main axis of country development. These rural municipalities experienced significant post war rural exodus and at the same time they were not attractive (low % of Greeks and foreigners born abroad, a limited number of people who settled in them but were born elsewhere in Greece).

25. Concluding remarks I • The municipalities in Greece, beyond the fact that they have different population sizes and characteristics (mountains-lowland, urban-suburban-rural), they also exhibit differences in their population syntheses due to differentiated weights of the three main population groups examined. • Internal migrants • Foreigners • Greeks born abroad • These groups have different demographic, educational, economic and cultural characteristics. • This work aims to assess the differences of population syntheses at municipality level using data of the last census (2001). Utilizing statistical classification techniques it highlights patterns of profiles and thus allow the creation of typologies, which can be interpreted based on demographic, socio-political and economic developments in recent decades.

26. Concluding remarks II We conclude from the findings of the analysis that most heterogeneous populations are, as expected, those in almost all municipalities of the greatest Agglomeration of Athens and Thessaloniki which experienced a huge population increase during the post war years. In a lesser degree, heterogeneous are also populations a) of a part of Macedonia and Thrace (where 1 out of 2 Greek citizens and residents was born in another municipality while 1 out of 8 was born abroad) and b) of a large group of municipalities (38% of all) consisting of relatively small units of lowland or/ and coastal areas concentrated in central and southern Greece (as well as near Albania). In these units, , the % of foreigners are extremely high (10%), but Greeks born abroad are few, while natives form the huge majority of their residents (almost 70% of total population). In contrast, most of small-sized municipalities, placed in mainland highland areas of upland central and southern Greece (and secondarily in the islands), are the most homogenous since their populations almost entirely consist of natives.

27. Further research • Of particular interest is a further analysis based on some additional criteria of those municipalities with less homogeneous population syntheses since equally high percentages of anyone of the three population categories considered, may hide clearly differing patterns. In particular, it will be interesting to take into consideration; • Sex and age of the various population groups • The foreigners’ country of birth by grouping them into 4 groups (more developed, Balkans, ex-socialist and less developed countries), • The origin of Greeks born abroad separating those born in developed western countries from those born in the former socialist countries (political refugees and co-ethnics), • The origin of Greeks born in Greece and living in an other municipality than the municipality of their birth, distinguishing those who were born in another municipality of the same agglomeration (intra city mobility) from the rest. • Finally, it should be interesting to compare data of 2001 census with those of 2011, taking into consideration some additional criteria as the distinction of foreigners depending on country of birth (since in the last decade about 20% of births in Greece were from foreign mothers), as well as the distinction of those having the Greek citizenship according to whether they acquired it through naturalization or from birth.

28. Thank you!