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Thailand Goes Nuclear? Considerations and Costs

Thailand Goes Nuclear? Considerations and Costs. 13 August 2007. Sheila Bijoor sheila@palangthai.org PALANG THAI. Outline. History of nuclear energy Why is nuclear energy back? Greenhouse gas emissions Generation costs New technology Nuclear proliferation Safety and security

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Thailand Goes Nuclear? Considerations and Costs

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  1. Thailand Goes Nuclear? Considerations and Costs 13 August 2007 Sheila Bijoor sheila@palangthai.org PALANG THAI

  2. Outline • History of nuclear energy • Why is nuclear energy back? • Greenhouse gas emissions • Generation costs • New technology • Nuclear proliferation • Safety and security • Radioactive waste • Trends in Thai political history

  3. History of GlobalNuclear Power Industry 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  4. Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)

  5. 1970-1980’s: Dramatic growth in capacity Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)

  6. 1970-1980’s: Dramatic growth in construction Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)

  7. Over 2/3 of all nuclear plants ordered after 1970 were cancelled.1 DECREASE 1 50 Years of Nuclear Energy (PDF). International Atomic Energy Agency. Retrieved on 2006-11-09. 2 Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)

  8. Nuclear loses popularity 2 Chernobyl Three Mile Island • - Rising economic costs - Nuclear accidents 1 • Falling fossil fuel prices - Radiation • Nuclear proliferation - Nuclear waste • Failures 1 The Rise and Fall of Nuclear Power. Public Broadcasting Service. Retrieved on June 28, 2006. 2 Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)

  9. Nuclear Today • 435 commercial nuclear reactors in 30 countries • 210 TWh increase over the last five years • In 2006, 2658 billion kWh total capacity “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. (2007) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf01.html

  10. Nuclear Tomorrow Data: “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. 2007 As of 2007: • 32 reactors under construction • 25,073 MWe (electrical energy) • Asia is the only region where nuclear power is growing • 18 of 32 under construction are in Asia “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. (2007) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf01.html

  11. Proposed Nuclear Reactors 86 20 24 21 18 15 Data: “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. 2007 As of 2007, • 214 nuclear reactors proposed worldwide -- 179,345 MWe • In Asia: • Over 109 nuclear power reactors in operation • Plans to build about a further 110 • Greatest nuclear growth in China, Japan, S. Korea, India “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. (2007) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf01.html

  12. Why is nuclear back?

  13. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  14. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  15. Energy Security: What’s New Energy demand is forecasted to double from 2003 to 2030. Asia has the greatest demand. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  16. Growing world energy consumption Annual Growth of Energy Consumption • Global consumption will double from 2003 to 2030. • Asia has greatest increase in demand. “Prediction of energy consumption world-wide.” timeforchange.org. (2007)

  17. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  18. Climate Change: What’s New Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now a recognized objective. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  19. Nuclear is better than fossil fuels Air Emissions of Energy Sources in USA “Air Emissions.” US Environmental Protection Agency (2007) http://www.epa.gov/solar/emissions.htm

  20. Nuclear is one of many options Air Emissions of Energy Sources in USA “Air Emissions.” US Environmental Protection Agency (2007) http://www.epa.gov/solar/emissions.htm

  21. Nuclear gives least reductions in CO2 (prediction for 2030) Energy efficiency accounts for 86% Nuclear energy only accounts for 10% of future CO2 emission reductions. Source: “Nuclear Pros and Cons.” http://timeforchange.org (2007) Data Source: International Energy Agency (IEA). http://iea.org

  22. Reducing fossil fuels Nuclear will not displace fossil fuel use. Why not invest in something that will? “Nuclear Pros and Cons.” http://timeforchange.org (2007)

  23. Nuclear and fossil fuels go hand in hand? • In North America, nuclear plants operate alongside coal-fired plants. Nuclear plants: • Run continually, cannot be easily switched on and off • Generate a base (fixed) demand • Are supplemented by other fuels to meet peak demands • Example: Ontario, Canada: Performance of nuclear power plant declined, so utility increased reliance on coal-fired producers. http://www.atomicengines.com/pictures.html Crystal River 3 in Florida, USA. Plants 1, 2 (foreground) and Plants 4, 5 (background) are coal fired. Unit 3 (mid picture) is nuclear powered. “What Thai Citizens Should Know About Canada’s Nuclear Power Program.” Probe International (1999)http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/probeint/Mekong/candu/9902.html#8

  24. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  25. Cost: What’s New Limited supply and rising costs of fossil fuels are driving renewed interests in alternatives. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  26. Generation costs EGAT: Nuclear has the least generating cost when compared to fossil fuels and renewables. EGAT “Power Development Plan”presentation at public hearing at Military club, April 3 2007

  27. Governments subsidize nuclear • R&D for nuclear is financed by government • Costs don't get transferred to the cost of nuclear electricity. • In 2005, half of 28 power plants have been under construction for 18-30 years. 1 • R&D for renewable energy is mostly financed privately 2 • Production costs are included in the cost of renewable electricity. Cost of Federal Incentives for Energy Development in 2003 (USA) http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com 1 “Nuclear Power: Myth and Reality.” Heinrich Boll Foundation. Regional Office for Southern Africa. (2006) 2 “What Thai Citizens Should Know About Canada’s Nuclear Power Program.” Probe International (1999)http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/probeint/Mekong/candu/9902.html#8

  28. Uranium costs will increase At current consumption rate: • Resource: high-grade, low-cost oresSupplies last: 50 years • Resource: conventional reservesSupplies last: 200 years 1 Wikipedia.org Uranium mining site in USA If nuclear power expands, reserves will deplete faster and become more costly. Most uranium is found in very poor grade ores. Recovery will be more greenhouse intensive. 2 1 Nuclear Energy Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency “Uranium 2003: Resources, Production, Demand.” Paris: OECD. (2004) 2 van Leeuwen, Jan-Willem. “Can nuclear power provide energy for the future; would it solve the CO2-emission problem?”, http://beheer.oprit.rug.nl/deenen (2004)

  29. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  30. Technology: What’s New New generations of reactors that promise safety and efficiency are in various stages of design and development. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  31. Advanced Nuclear Technology New generations of reactors will have improved efficiency, cleanliness, safety, and capabilities. Generation IV and V Reactors: Nuclear thermal rocket Gas-cooled reactor Molten-salt reactor “Nuclear Reactor Technology.” Wikipedia.org. (2007) www.wikipedia.org

  32. Technology only on paper • Generation IV reactors will not be produced until 2030 (optimistic estimate). • Generation V reactors still only theoretical designs. • New generations will not be “idiot-proof” 1 • Installed reactors will be Generation II or III, and are known to have inherent flaws or be trouble-prone. Examples of CANDU: 2 • Reactor pressure tubes prone to rupture • Faulty emergency coolant systems • Operating errors damage fuel bundles 1 “Nuclear Power: Myth and Reality.” Heinrich Boll Foundation. Regional Office for Southern Africa. (2006) 2 “What Thai Citizens Should Know About Canada’s Nuclear Power Program.” Probe International 1999 http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/

  33. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  34. Nuclear reactors can be used to make bombs Bomb material can be derived from a regular nuclear reactor by two ways: • Enriching uranium-- process used to make nuclear reactor fuel. • Reprocessing-- taking spent fuel rods and extracting plutonium. A baseball-sized amount can make a Nagasaki-size bomb. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/ “Nuclear Energy.” Reaching Critical Will. (2001) http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/

  35. Myth of peaceful power FACT 20 of 60 countries with ‘peaceful’ nuclear reactors conducted covert weapons research or production. 1 • India’s 1974 “Peaceful Nuclear Explosion”, called “Smiling Buddha” exemplifies myth • India replicated a donated research reactor and self-developed plutonium separation plant to make bomb • Pakistani PM promised to build the bomb "even if we have to eat grass or leaves or to remain hungry.“ 2 EXAMPLE: India’s Smiling Buddha http://wikipedia.org Indian PM Benazir Bhutto visiting nuclear site. 1 Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 <http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdf> 2 “Canada blamed for India's 'peaceful' bomb.” CBC Archives (2006) <http://archives.cbc.ca/>

  36. IAEA has severe limitations At least 8 NPT states have weapons projects in violation of NPT, or have permissible weapons activities but failed to report to IAEA. Examples: • Egypt • Iraq • Libya • North Korea • Romania • South Korea • Taiwan • Yugoslavia http://www.nkzone.org/nkzone/category/diplomacy/ Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdf

  37. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  38. Safety and Security: What’s New Hundreds of accidents continue to occur, though smaller than in 1986. Nuclear terrorism is a bigger threat than ever before. New generations of technology promise to have better security. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  39. Too many accidents Chernobyl and Three Mile Island are best-known of hundreds of accidents: • At least 8 accidents involving damage to or malfunction of the core of nuclear power or research reactors. • At least five nuclear research reactor accidents have resulted in fatalities. • There have been other serious reactor accidents which did not involve core damage or malfunction, and a number of ‘near misses’ with power reactors found to be in a serious state of disrepair. Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdf

  40. Too many accidents • Tokai-mura, Japan in 1999: Two workers received lethal doses of radiation; Later revealed that data and inspections had been manipulated at tens of reactors to avoid repairs and lengthy closure. • Sellafield, UK in 2000: Fuel processing site found to have a fundamental failure of safety culture by Government inspectors. • David-Besse, US in 2002: Corrosion came so close to penetrating the vital pressure vessel that it could have led to complete reactor core meltdown. • Cruas-3, -4 , France in 2003: Flood affected damage and shutdown. • Mihama, Japan in 2004: Steam explosion killed five workers. • Mihama, Japan 2006: Plant shut down due to earthquake concerns. • Niigata, Japan 2007: Earthquake triggers fire in nuclear plant. PHOTO: Number 3 reactor after accident at the Mihama nuclear plant in Japan.http://www.smh.com.au “Nuclear: Safety.” Greenpeace International (2006) http://www.greenpeace.org/international/campaigns/nuclear/safety

  41. Radioactive emissions • Radioactive emissions are routinely generated across the nuclear fuel cycle. • UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (1994) estimates collective effective dose to world population over 50-year period of operation of nuclear facilities is 2 million person-Sieverts. • Applying the standard risk estimate to that level of radiation exposure gives 80,000 fatal cancers. • Chernobyl:Applying the standard risk estimate to radiation gives 24,000 fatal cancers.Permanent relocation of 220,000 people from Belarus, the Russian Federation, and the Ukraine. http://www.sheppardsoftware.com Chernobyl Reactor 4 after accident Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdf

  42. Conventional and terrorist attacks • Nations have attacked nuclear facilities with conventional weapons. • Iraq’s nuclear facilities bombed by Iran, Israel and USA. • Iran’s nuclear plant bombed by Iraq in the 1980s. • Iraq claims to have targeted Scud missiles at Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant in 1991. • Terrorists can hijack nuclear transporters, crash into reactors, and blow up containers of radioactive waste to spread radioactivity. Barnaby, Frank and James Kemp. Too Hot to Handle? The Future of Civil Nuclear Power. United Kingdom: Oxford Research Group, 2007: 14

  43. Trafficking of nuclear materials • The IAEA’s Illicit Trafficking Database records over 650 incidents of trafficking in radioactive materials since 1993. • 100 trafficking incidents occurred in 2004. 1 • Smuggling can provide fissile material for nuclear weapons and radioactive materials for use in ‘dirty bombs’. THAILAND: 2003 Cesium Capture June 13, 2003: Thai national arrested in Bangkok after he tried to sell 30 kg of cesium 137 to undercover agents. Cesium 137, could be used to make a dirty bombs. 2 1 El Baradei, Mohamed. “Nuclear Terrorism: Identifying and Combating the Risks”, March 16, 2005 <www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2005/ebsp2005n003.html> 2 Andreoni, Alessandro and Charles D. Ferguson. Radioactive Cesium Seizure in Thailand: Riddled with Uncertainties. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies: July 2003 http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/030717.htm

  44. No margin of error • A nuclear weapon powerful enough to destroy a city requires a mere 10 kg of plutonium. • The nuclear power industry has produced 1,600 tons of plutonium (Institute for Science and International Security, 2004) – enough to build about 160,000 nuclear weapons. Even if 99% of the plutonium is indefinitely protected, the remaining 1% would suffice for 1,600 nuclear weapons. Institute for Science and International Security, “Civil Plutonium Produced in Power Reactors” (2004) <www.isis-online.org/global_stocks/civil_pu.html>.

  45. Why is nuclear back? • Energy Security • Low CO2 emissions • “Low” generating costs • “Improved” Technology • Geopolitics • Safety and Security • Waste Disposal

  46. Waste Disposal: What’s New Nothing, really. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  47. Fuel cycle process pollutes THE FUEL CYCLE PROCESS • Uranium mining and milling leaves radioactive slimes. • Spent fuel contains radioactive substances. • Reprocessing creates high-level radioactive sludge. • By 2000, nuclear industry had created 201,000 tons of highly radioactive nuclear waste. Must secure waste for 10,000 - 240,000 yrs “Nuclear Energy.” Reaching Critical Will. (2001) http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/

  48. No long-term waste solution • Not a single repository exists anywhere for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste • Only a few countries have identified potential sites. • MIT STUDY:Scenario: Global nuclear output increased 3X Result: New repository storage capacity equal to the legal limit for Yucca Mountain must be created every 3-4 years. http://wikipedia.org Yucca Mountain in USA (Proposed Repository Site) John Deutch and Ernest J. Moniz et al, The Future of Nuclear Power: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, Cambridge, MA: MIT, 2003.

  49. History of Nuclear in Thailand 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  50. Nuclear in Thailand NUCLEARPUSH 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1966 EGAT proposes Thailand's first nuclear project. “Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News Communique (1997) http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html

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