1 / 41

Water, violence, conflict and cooperation

Water, violence, conflict and cooperation. Dr. Ken Conca kconca@gvpt.umd.edu. Topics :. The world’s water picture and global water challenges Water as a source of violent conflict (pathways and probabilities) Water cooperation initiatives. Water is….

denise
Download Presentation

Water, violence, conflict and cooperation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Water, violence, conflict and cooperation Dr. Ken Conca kconca@gvpt.umd.edu

  2. Topics: • The world’s water picture and global water challenges • Water as a source of violent conflict (pathways and probabilities) • Water cooperation initiatives

  3. Water is… …unsubstitutable in its most important uses; …unevenly distributed; …difficult to capture; …movable, but often only at great social, economic, or ecological cost; …highly variable over time in its availability.

  4. I. The world’s water challenges • Addressing unmet human water needs • Allocating water across competing sectoral needs: agricultural, industrial, municipal • Managing and reversing the impact on critical freshwater ecosystems

  5. Challenge: Unmet needs and water-related human insecurity • An estimated 1.3 billion people currently lack reliable access to safe drinking water • An estimated 2.6 billion lack adequate sanitation • Struggle to keep pace with population growth in recent decades, much less make a dent in these figures • Projection: Half the world’s people will live in conditions of “water insecurity” by 2035

  6. Per-capita domestic water use Source: Gleick, The World’s Water 2000-2001

  7. Millennium Development Goals “By 2015, cut in half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation.”

  8. Millennium water goals: mixed progress Source: Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2005

  9. Challenge: Addressing water demands of competing sectoral uses • Growing inter-sectoral competition (agriculture vs. emerging industrial, municipal uses) • Strong growth projections across all sectors--but ineffective mechanisms for allocating water across sectors • Controversies over water pricing and private-sector participation

  10. Challenge: Addressing environmental impacts and in-stream uses • importance of freshwater ecosystem services • cumulative toll of damming, diverting, draining, dumping, developing • 1/3 of world’s fish species endangered (vast majority are freshwater fish) • 800k dams on world’s rivers, 500k altered for navigation

  11. Food production Water quality Water quantity Biodiversity Condition:Capacity: Good Mixed Poor Decreasing Fair Decreasing Bad Decreasing State of the world’s freshwater ecosystems Source: World Resources Institute, Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems

  12. II. Water as a source of violent conflict • “The wars of the next century will be over water.” (Ismail Serageldin, World Bank) • “The next Middle East war will be over dwindling water supplies.” (Moammar Gaddafi) • “Conditions are ripe for a century of water conflicts.” (The Economist )

  13. Water and conflict: Some key questions • What is the historical record? • What likelihood of future conflict, given changing conditions? • At what levels of social aggregation—localized, interstate, …? • By what specific pathways?

  14. Gleick’s typology of historicalwater conflicts: • Control of Water Resources:water supplies or access are at the root of tensions. • Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states. • Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action. • Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal. • Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors. • Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development.

  15. Pacific Institute Water and Conflict Chronology http://worldwater.org/conflict.htm

  16. Potential pathways to water-related violent conflict • Interstate conflict in shared river basins • Violence triggered along pre-existing social cleavages (ethnicity, identity group, social class, region) • “Developmental” states in conflict with affected domestic communities • Coercive environmental protection or water-related restrictions

  17. Problem: Growing water stress in the world’s river basins • 2.3 billion people live in river basins under “water stress” (<1700 cu. meters/yr per capita) • 1.7 billion people live in river basins under “high water stress” (<1000 cu. meters/yr per capita) Source: World Resources Institute, World Resources 2000-2001

  18. Problem: Thinly institutionalized cooperation on shared basins • 263 internationally shared river basins • fewer than 20% have a cooperative international agreement in effect • only a handful have accords involving all basin states • 1997 U.N. Convention on Shared Watercourses--not in force

  19. Oregon State University “Basins at Risk” project (Wolf et al) • 50-year database of scaled cooperative and conflictual events • Tested wide array of social, economic, political variables for causal link to conflictual/cooperative events • Used results to identify “basins at risk”

  20. Findings: • Cooperative events outnumber conflictual by more than 2 to 1 • Few extreme events • Major issues: water quantity and water infrastructure • Variables that don’t explain much: income level, regime type, water stress (!)

  21. Findings (cont’d): Key is rate of change—when rate of change within basin exceeds capacity of institutions to adapt—specifically: • “internationalized” basins • unilateral development in the absence of international cooperative agreement

  22. Findings (cont’d) • From this, extrapolate 17 “basins at risk” Source: Wolf et al, “International Waters: Identifying Basins at Risk,” Water Policy 5 Number 1 (2003) 29-60

  23. Pathways to violent conflict: • Interstate conflict in shared river basins • Violence triggered along pre-existing social cleavages (ethnicity, identity group, social class, region) • “Developmental” states in conflict with affected domestic communities • Coercive environmental protection or water-related restrictions

  24. The Homer-Dixon thesis: • Scarcity-induced violent conflict as a result of environmental change • Tendency of conflict to play out along pre-existing social cleavages • “Yes, but…”: Subsequent statistical studies show weak association, low-grade violence, importance of intervening variables

  25. Pathways to violent conflict: • Interstate conflict in shared river basins • Violence triggered along pre-existing social cleavages (ethnicity, identity group, social class, region) • “Developmental” states in conflict with affected domestic communities • Coercive environmental protection or water-related restrictions

  26. Critical ecosystem Anchor of local livelihoods and culture Scarce commodity with market value

  27. “A river plays a very big role in our culture. It has a lot to do. If somebody passes away or maybe was killed by the lightning, usually he would be buried next to the river. It is a place where our traditional doctors go to get qualified. Some people say they talk with their ancestors right in the river. If a girl is about to start her first period, a traditional way to guide her is to take her to the river. Apart from that, if someone in the family dreams about a river, it will mean that someone in the family is pregnant; and if I am a mother, I should know that something is wrong with one of my daughters.”--Mathato Khit’sane, Highlands Church Action Group, Lesotho

  28. Nehru: “Dams are the temples of modern India.” Stalin: “Water which is allowed to enter the sea is wasted.” World Commission on Dams estimates that 40-80 million people have been displaced to make way for large dams and water projects

  29. Trends in state-society water development conflicts • Transnationalization of opposition • Increasing success of dam opponents (in context of greater private-sector role) • World Commission on Dams as a forum for dialogue, conflict resolution • Endurance of site-specific violence when movements choose confrontation and states choose repression

  30. Pathways to violent conflict: • Interstate conflict in shared river basins • Violence triggered along pre-existing social cleavages (ethnicity, identity group, social class, region) • “Developmental” states in conflict with affected domestic communities • Coercive environmental protection or water-related restrictions

  31. “The squatters live…next to a polluted river and the local authority fear that it could be a source of cholera.” (BBC 2-13-01)

  32. III. Water Cooperation Initiatives • International river-basin cooperation • ‘Stakeholder’ dialogues around infrastructure and privatization controversies • Domestic water policy reforms

  33. Principles for shared riverbasins (1997 U.N. Convention) • All basin states participate • “Equitable and reasonable use” • Obligation to avoid “significant harm” • Regular exchange of information • Prior notification • Peaceful dispute resolution

  34. Water cooperation initiatives • International river-basin cooperation • ‘Stakeholder’ dialogues around infrastructure and privatization controversies • Domestic water policy reforms

  35. World Commission on Dams UN Environment Programme Dams and Development Project

  36. Water cooperation initiatives • International river-basin cooperation • ‘Stakeholder’ dialogues around infrastructure and privatization controversies • Domestic water policy reforms

  37. Examples of innovative domestic water-policy reforms • Brazil: basin-level committees, mixed-membership bodies geared toward conflict resolution • South Africa: human and environmental “reserves”, pricing reforms/minimum free allocation

  38. Global 2000: Major Conclusions “Regional water shortages will become more severe. In the 1970-2000 period population growth alone will cause requirements for water to double in nearly half the world. Still greater increases would be needed to improve standards of living. In many [less-developed countries], water supplies will become increasingly erratic by 2000 as a result of extensive deforestation. Development of new water supplies will become more costly virtually everywhere.”

  39. Projected Global WaterWithdrawals in Year 2000 (cu. km), by year of forecast Source: Adapted from Gleick, The World’s Water 2000-2001

  40. scenario: Raskin “reference” Seckler “BAU” Gleick “vision” WWC “vision” Raskin “reform” Seckler “efficiency” projected withdrawal (cu. km/yr): 5044 4569 4270 4200 4054 3625 Scenarios for global water use in 2025

  41. Critical variables shaping water futures: -Population growth -Economic growth -Technological innovation ** Water finance trends & pricing policies ** Management of social controversies ** International river diplomacy

More Related