WATER CONFLICT, SECURITY AND COOPERATION

1. WATER CONFLICT, SECURITY AND COOPERATION Dr. Marwa Daoudy IUHEI (Geneva), CERI (Paris)

2. « Water is not necessary for life, it is life » Antoine de St-Exupéry,Terre des Hommes,1939

3. WATER, AN INTERNATIONAL ISSUE • PARTIAL PERSPECTIVE: • « Crisis » or « war» because of freshwater scarcity – « geopolitics of water » • INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE OF THE ENVIRONMENT: • Sanitary, environmental, political, institutional and financial issues

4. MAP • Water, an International Issue • The Debate: Water and IR • Benefit-Sharing

5. ELEMENTS OF A CRISIS • INDICATORS: • Global data • Resource use per person per year • Rate of utilization • Dependency rate on external sources

6. THE WATER CYCLE

7. WATER-RELATED DATA • 263 internationally shared basins (A. Wolf, Oregon State, Water Database) • 70 in Africa, 55 in Europe, 40 in Asia, 33 in South America, 6 in the Middle East • 1400 million cubic kilometers (millions of billions of m3), 70% of the earth, only 2.5% of freshwater • Renewable resources: 40 000 km3/year, i.e. 0,007% of the total water volume • Not an issue of global availability but geographic distribution: 9 countries – 60% of world water resources.

8. CRISIS - INDICATORS (I) • Availability per person per year: • > 1700 m3/h/an: relative water sufficiency • Between 1700 and 1000 m3/p/year: water stress • Between 1000 and 500 m3/p/y: scarcity line • < 500 m3/p/y: absolute scarcity

9. CRISIS - INDICATORS (II) • Rate of dependence on external sources: • Upstream/downstream (main areas of tension) • E.g: Turkmenistan (98%), Egypt (97%), Syria (80%)

10. INDICATORS (III) • Water utilizations: • 70% to agriculture (ME: 80-90%) • Global food: need to find a balance between agriculture/industry/domestic use

11. ELEMENTS OF A CRISIS (I) • Health-related dilemmas: • Water quality (80% of diseases are water-borne in poor countries - WHO) • Pollution (pesticides and salinity of water and soils)

12. ELEMENTS OF A CRISIS (II) • Demographic growth: • World population: x 3 in 100 years • Pressures on water: x 6 in 100 years • Mainly in developing countries • Increased urbanization: + pressure on water (90% of demographic growth is absorbed by cities) • Green Revolution: food security, intensive irrigation practices (vs. Blue Revolution )

13. ORIGINS AND CONSEQUENCES • Increased water demand (demographic growth) • Decreased water supply and water quality • Main areas of conflict

14. INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE • Decision-making process? • Execution of mandates? • Accountability, responsibility?

15. THE DEBATE • Institutional, economic, ethical, strategic and political issues at stake • No common vision or unified strategy

16. INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE OF THE ENVIRONMENT • Efficiency of international agreements • Legitimacy of procedures • Equitable share of responsibilities

17. International Water Governance • Environmental, economic and social issues • Sustainable development: • Promoting Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) • Global good vs. Economic good • Water ethics: International Water Law

18. MULTILATERALISM • Promoting International Water Governance: • Stockholm, Rio, Johannesburg • 1972, 1992, 2002

19. INTEGRATED WATER MANAGEMENT (IWRM) * Sustainable water management and sustainable development * Integrating sometimes opposed interests (ecosystems/human needs, surface water/underground resources, upstream/downstream interests, different uses…). * Chapter 18 of Agenda 21 (Rio): water is an economic good

20. Symbolic dimension: water = gift from God= public good Water costs? WATER AND ECONOMICS

21. WATER ECONOMICS: THE DEBATE • Regional scarcity: need to calculate total distribution costs • Global economic costs: distribution + opportunity + external • Conclusion: need to enhance economic efficiency and environmental, ecological sustainability. Avoid « tragedy of common goods ».

22. ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS • Private investments in water sector • Investments to increase water supplies (supply management): desalination • « Virtual water »: food imports = water imports (1500 m3/ton of cereals) • Water markets

23. ISSUES AT STAKE • Privatization of water sector: risks • Water access as human right • Water as global public good • Third way: between total privatization and total State control

24. WATER ETHICS • Need to enhance cooperation among States • International legal standards • Slow but steady construction of IL on utilization of international watercourses for non-navigational purposes (United Nations Convention, 1997).

25. CONCLUSIONS • Multidimensional issue • Water: human survival, economic growth and political stability • « Hydro-politics »: link between hydraulic issues strategic, economic and political levels (cooperation, conflict, security).

26. WATER AND IR

27. The Theoretical Debate • I. Water Conflict & Cooperation: some IR theories • II. Debating water issues in the 1990s: environmental security vs. virtual water • III. Debating water issues today: benefit sharing vs. water rights.

28. Water Specificity – Some Theoretical implications • Global Common Good = need for collective action • Avoid « tragedy of the commons » (Hardin, 1968) or unilateral abuse by developing common and organized management of resources.

29. Water, Conflict and Security

30. Conflict over Water • Classification criteria (Zeitoun & Warner, 2006): • Development disputes • Control of water resources • Water as political tool • Water as military target • Water as military tool • Inter-State • Intra-State

31. Water Conflict and Cooperation • Regime Theory: regional institutions to manage cooperative regimes for natural resources. • International Governance: agent-based resolution of collective problems at local, national and international level.

32. Water Conflict & Cooperation • Power Matrix: additional factors (other than asymmetry) to explain link between water and conflict (interests, riparian position, projected power). • Inherent asymmetry as specific nature of conflicts over water (Haftendorn, 2000). • Conflict resolution should address asymmetric structure of conflict

33. Water Conflict vs. Water Cooperation • Environmental security vs. virtual water (Pessimists vs. Optimists) • Debate in 1990s: very high risks of violent conflict because of increasing water scarcity (e.g., Middle East) • Vs. no conflict despite water scarcity and tensions: additional supply through water embedded in food imports

34. GEOPOLITICAL STUDIES • Conventional Geopolitics: • Natural resource endowments and geography are defining features of a State’s status • Geographical and environmental determinism

35. WATER - GEOPOLITICS • Neo-Malthusianism: « WATER WARS» • Demographic growth, resource scarcity and violent conflict • Cornucopian perspectives: cooperation vs. conflict • Available but mismanaged resources • Need to evaluate resources economically (price)

36. WATER WARS?

37. The Debate • The inevitability of water conflicts is supported by quantitative and qualitative analysis. The link between water and violent conflict is thus confirmed. • As a strategic security concern, water can become a source of conflict but interdependent riparian states are more likely to cooperate over water.

38. Water & Security • A new debate on national security: critical security studies (CSS) • Enlargement of threats: from traditional (military, economic) to non-traditional (environment, resources, health) • Link between environmental problems and emergence of conflicts • « Environmental security »

39. Research Questions • What linkages are established between the environment and security? How can they explain the successful securitization of the environment as a referent object since the 1990s. • Some would argue that resource scarcities have been over-securitized in the last decades. How? Why? What about current trends towards the securitization of the environment in relation to development?

40. Environmental Security (1) • Transnational environmental problems • Resource-based conflicts

41. Environmental Security (2) • Toronto School (Homer-Dixon, 1993, 1994) • Oslo School (Gledditsch, 1998, 2000) • Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars (ECSP), Washington.

42. THE SECURITIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT • Link between environmental problems (water) and national security issues • Threat perception • Securitization of environmental problems: maintain local biosphere as an essential support on which will depend all other human activities (Buzan et al., 1998, p. 74)

43. UNDERLYING CONCEPTS • Negotiation • Power (asymmetry) • Conflict (resolution)

44. Water, Conflict and Negotiation

45. NEGOTIATION ELEMENTS • Actors • Structure • Process • Strategies • Results

46. ACTORS • Defining the Hegemon: State that temporarily gains a preponderance of power in the international and/or regional system • It can unilaterally dominate the rules and procedures that guide political and economic relations – and water dynamics

47. STRUCTURE • Asymmetry of power (upstream/downstream, military, economic resources) • History of relations (politics, culture, etc..) • Structural power (1st dimension of power)

48. PROCESS • Cooperative, integrative • (win-win) • Conflict-oriented, distributive • (win-lose) • Mixed (but predominantly…)

49. STRATEGIES • Bargaining Power (« 2nd face of power ») • Time • Costs of no agreement

50. AGREEMENTS • Bilateral vs. basin-wide, temporary vs. lasting, stable, unstable • Structure of agreements = power structure (Schelling, 1960) • BATNA: Best Alternative to No Agreement