Conflict, cooperation, and the environment

1. Conflict, cooperation, and the environment Relations between conflict, cooperation and the environment are numerous but cannot always be clearly established Quite clearly early cooperative structures such as early agricultural states were driven by the necessity to better control the human environment Resource driven conflicts are probable in this context

2. Relationships between the environment and human production As technology evolves, relations between the environment and human activities become more distant 2 types of relations can be emphasized: 1. Cataclysmic Events such as volcano eruptions Long term changes such as deforestation trends and climate changes: the 2 may be linked

3. Conflicts over environmental resources may exist but they are difficult to show Difficulty to disentangle environmental from other conflicts, ex. Rwanda Here again importance of property and property rights Similar for conflict over resources: Central Asia and Water in the Jordan River water basin, conflict between Turkey, Syria and Iraq over the Euphrates and Tigris waters

4. The Rwandan question

5. Rwandan trends

6. The Genocide

7. The Central Asian Water Question

8. Symmetric and Asymmetric Access to Resources: The Example of the Middle East

9. 2 Middle Eastern Conflicts: The Jordan and Euphrates River Basins Jordan River: Israel plus Palestinians use about 2300 million cubic meters per annum, only 1950 is considered sustainable Jordan uses 740 to 750 million cubic meters per annum. Only 730 is considered sustainable Euphrates: Turkey reduces Euphrates flow to 500 to 300 cubic meters per second, 700 are demanded by Syria

10. Some Theoretical Notions Goal: tackle problems analytically and suggest responses that promote strategies to minimize conflicts and promote cooperation All social interactions and conflicts are not the same. They have to be analyzed according to their incentive structures Water problems are commons problems Commons lead to asymmetries: Lack of dominant strategies lead to first mover advantage First, (or second) move advantage can be enhanced by geographic or technological circumstances

11. Fundamental Questions to Address What is the nature of the conflicts? How can one find optimal solutions to solve them?

14. Water competition has technological and economic limits Price of water from Sea: fundamental baseline Given by the cost of a m3of water from sea water or possibly from pipe lines: Around 65¢ per m3 70% of all consumed water is for agriculture (irrigation) In the Middle East this proportion can reach 80 to 90% Is it worth it?

15. Symbolic aspects The sharper the conflict and the demands around it, the more is at stake Giving in on little things is perceived as signal to give in on big ones

16. How to get out of the conflict spiral? Emphasize limited worth of conflict Franklin Fisher approach using pricing Problem: Symbolic aspect Policy of mutual voluntary restraint in use Reduce conflict extensions to other areas through compensations

18. Difficulty: The Mid-east population explosion

19. The Mid-East Demographic Boom

20. Per capita GDP diminish in the Mid-East

21. Environmental Negotiations The Commons problem makes it difficult to carry out international environmental negotiations Often countries try to free ride on each other It is difficult to exclude from environmental benefits