IPCC Working Group I Summary For Policymakers: The Physical Science Basis

1. Slides for Communicating IPCC IPCC Working Group I Summary For Policymakers: The Physical Science Basis Assembled by Brenda Ekwurzel March 2, 2007 www.ucsusa.org

2. Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota Why: Climate Drivers Future Impacts: What are the Risks? Future Choices: Opportunities

3. Photos.com www.pca.state.mn.us/cleanup/landfills.html NASA Photos.com Associated Press • Projected climate change for the second half of this century depends on the level of future heat-trapping emissions. vs Union of Concerned Scientists

4. Global Average Surface Temperature Change relative to 1980-1999 13.5°F 1°F °C Minnesota is in a region at risk for large consequences from a higher emissions scenario. Future Risks A2 IPCC scenario averaged over 2090–2099 Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

5. Global Average Surface Temperature Change relative to 1980-1999 13.5°F 1°F °C Minnesota can avoid experiencing even the lowest emissions scenario projections of the IPCC if the world follows deep reductions targets. Future Risks B1 IPCC scenario averaged over 2090–2099 Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

7. Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota Why: Climate Drivers Future Impacts: What are the Risks? Future Choices: Opportunities

8. Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota Why?: Climate Drivers Future Impacts: What are the Risks? Future Choices: Opportunities

9. NOAA David Saville, FEMA News Great Lakes Region Annual average temperatures are growing warmer. Winters are getting shorter. The duration of lake ice cover is decreasing as air and water temperatures rise. Heavy precipitation events, both rain and snow, are becoming more common. Source: Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region 2005 (UCS and ESA) http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/

10. Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota Why: Climate Drivers Future Impacts: What are the Risks? Future Choices: Opportunities

11. Changes in Heat-trapping Gases from Ice-Core and Modern Data Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

12. www.pca.state.mn.us/cleanup/landfills.html www.epa.gov/nitrousoxide/sources.html Emissions Since the dawn of the industrial era, carbon dioxide and other key heat-trapping gases have increased at a rate that is “very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10,000 years.” CO2 CH4 N2O Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

13. Global Average Surface Temperature Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

14. Human Responsibility for Climate Change The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.” Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.