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Universitat de les Illes Balears. Reunión PREDIMED 2014A 5-6 Junio. Implementation of the fully-distributed and physically-based FEST-WB model. A. Amengual. Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma, Mallorca, Spain
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Universitat de les Illes Balears Reunión PREDIMED 2014A 5-6 Junio Implementation of the fully-distributed and physically-based FEST-WB model A. Amengual Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma, Mallorca, Spain e-mail: arnau.amengual@uib.es
Overview of the FEST-WB model • The Serpis flash-flood event • Preliminary results • Future tasks Implementation of thephysically-baseddistributed FEST-WB model
1. Overview of the FEST-WB model • Flash-flood Event-based Spatially-distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation – including Water Balance • Computes the main processes of the hydrological cycle: • Evapotranspiration • Infiltration • Surface runoff • Flow routing • Subsurface flow • Groundwater flow • Snow dynamics
1. Overview of the FEST-WB model • Computational domain is meshed with a net regular square cells (200 meters) • Continuous soil moisture accounting: • Runoff is computed according to a modified SCS-CN method. Potential maximum retention, S, is updated as a linear function of the degree of saturation (ε): • Actual evapotranspiration, EVT, calculated using the Hargreaves equation • Surface and sub-surface routing: Muskingum-Cunge method in its non-linear form • Reservoir: Flow routing is described using the level pool scheme.
2. The Serpis flash-flood event: synoptic situation 1. Upper-level closed trough 2. Strong high pressures over Western Europe 3. Low pressures over northern Africa 4. Low-level jet: advection of warm and moist air toward Valencia from the Mediterranean 5. Orographic lifting (Sierra de Aitana)
2. The Serpis flash-flood event: synoptic situation Quasi-stationary MCSs
2. The Serpis flash-flood event: observations • Torrential precipitation took place on 11 and 12 October 2007 • Accumulated precipitation amounts above 400 mm • The Serpis catchment is a small size basin with an area of 752.8 km2and a length close to 74.5 km. • Accumulated rainfall above 300 mm from 00 to 12 UTC 12 October 2007 inside this basin
2. The Serpis flash-flood event: observations • Peak discharges: • Vernissa: Qp=315 m3s-1 • Beniarrés: Qp=260 m3s-1 • Carrós: Qp=200 m3s-1 • 1 fatality. 200 people evacuated
4. Future tasks • How can we improve flash-flooding process knowledge and forecasting? • 1. Which are the hydrological characteristics of extreme floods in the semi-arid Mediterranean environment? • 1.1 To determine which are the main hydrological processes involved in flash-flooding for semi-arid river basins in the Mediterranean. • 1.2 To assess which is the specific role of the infiltration mechanism, soil moisture content and Hortonian flow before flash-floods in semi-arid river basins. • 2. How can we improve the hydrometeorological forecasting of flash-floods? • 2.1 To study the predictability of high impact weather related to intense rainfall and flash-flooding. • 2.2 To assess how meteorological uncertainties propagate through the hydrological models. • 2.3 To examine flash-flood predictability through advanced ensemble prediction hydrometeorological systems.