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Strategic Planning for 2010

Strategic Planning for 2010. Dr Randall Harris Department of Management, Operations and Marketing. The University. In short there is no vision, nor is there a set of competing visions, of what an educated human being is. The question has disappeared,

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Strategic Planning for 2010

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  1. Strategic Planning for 2010 Dr Randall Harris Department of Management, Operations and Marketing

  2. The University In short there is no vision, nor is there a set of competing visions, of what an educated human being is. The question has disappeared, for to pose it would be a threat to the peace. - Allan Bloom, The Closing of the American Mind We have to recognize that the University is a ruined institution, while thinking what it means to dwell in those ruins without recourse to romantic nostalgia... My argument is that the market structure of the post-historical University makes the figure of the student as consumer more and more a reality... - Bill Readings, The University in Ruins One issue central to the debates among the postmodern movements is the commodification of education and knowledge. Science is transformed from the master legitimation of modernism into yet another sector of commodified production, with knowledge becoming both a product to be sold and a good to be consumed. - Robert Gephart, Postmodern Management and Organizational Theory

  3. The University is Big Business • The US has at least 5 million College & University students. • This figure is 10 times the number in 1939. • US Universities “earn” at least $175 billion per year (2x size of airline industry). • Universities are increasingly being scrutinized much like any other business. • Business Models, as a result, are being introduced into academic planning processes.

  4. Environment Scanning & Assessment Current Situation & Performance Industry Analysis Implement Evaluate & Adjust Strategy Formulation & Planning Company Analysis: SWOT We are here Source: De Kluyver & Pearce (2003)

  5. Key Strategic Questions • Where is the University now? (Not where do we hope that it is). • If no changes are made, where will the University be in five years? • If the answers to the first two questions are unacceptable, what specific actions should we undertake? What risks and payoffs are involved?

  6. Crafting a Strategy • Question: Is strategy formulation a totally rational process, or does is consist exclusively of power and coalition formation? • Rational-Deductive School • Power and Coalition School • Henry Mintzburg: The best strategies are crafted out of both. • The Paradox: Purely deliberate strategies preclude learning once the strategy is formulated. However, purely emergent strategies preclude control. • Kierkegaard – • “Life is lived forward but understood backward.”

  7. Setting Objectives for CSU, Stanislaus • What is to be accomplished, when it will be done, and how it can be measured. • Good objectives accomplish several things: • (1) provide guidance, • (2) effect planning, • (3) provide motivation, and • (4) form the basis for evaluating activity. • Objectives should be derived from and congruent with the mission of the organization (mission-driven).

  8. Setting Objectives for CSU, Stanislaus • Objectives should be doable. • Objectives should be measurable. • Objectives need to be selective. The University can only focus on so much at any point in time. • Objectives may be in conflict. This is due to one objective being in conflict with another (selective attention as a coping mechanism). • Everybody attends to objectives when they are rewarded for doing so.

  9. External Analysis

  10. Key External Issues • Declining State support for the CSU System. • Increased Emphasis on Alternative channels for University revenues. • Uncertain political climate in Sacramento. • Structural state deficits in Sacramento. • Increased public scrutiny of CSU operations.

  11. California Annual Unemployment Rates Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies

  12. Monthly Unemployment, Modesto MSA, 2003-2004

  13. Educational Lag in the Central Valley: Percent of persons age 25+ with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, 2000 Source: County QuickFacts, U.S. Census Bureau

  14. Trade, Trans. & Util. Man. Natl. Res. Mining, & Information 20% 12% Const. 1% 6% Financial Activities Ag. 4% 9% Prof. and Bus. Ser. 8% Govt. 19% Educ. And Health Ser. Other Services 10% 3% Leisure and Hospitality 8% Distribution of Employment in the Six-County Region, 2002 Source: County Snapshots, Labor Market Information Division of the California Employment Development Department

  15. Personal Wage Earnings, Modesto MSA, 2002, by Industry (includes food processing) Total Wage Earnings: $7.5 billion Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  16. Land used by agriculture declined by only 2,184 acres between 1998 and 2000, or 0.05% of the total. Crop production value was almost $1.4 billion— a 1% increase over 2001 and a 14.25% increase over 2000. Water use in Stanislaus County was high, with irrigation accounting for 90% of all fresh water withdrawals. In 1995, per capita use of fresh water in gallons per day was 3,475 in Stanislaus County compared with 1,130 on average in the state. Much of the county’s job growth occurred in the non-farm, service, government, and retail sectors. In spite of this growth, unemployment in the county increased from 10.2% in 2001 to 11.4% in 2002 and rates remain 4 or 5 percentage points higher than the state average. 1,056 acres were added to “urban and built up” land. Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies

  17. Stanislaus County Land Use Conversion Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies

  18. California consumes more water than any other state, withdrawing 45.9 billion gallons per day. Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies Water Use in Stanislaus County

  19. Internal Analysis

  20. California Population Pressures California is one of the fastest growing states in the Union and its high school graduate cohort is expected to increase over 18% between 2000-01 and 2009-10 from 319,870 students to 388,721 students. As stated in the President’s Strategic Goals for 2001-02, the University is expected to grow to 10,000 students by 2008 provided that funding from the state supports that rate of growth. The opening of the University of California at Merced in the fall of 2005 will provide increased competition in recruiting the highest quality students in the valley. The Latino population over this same period will grow by 59.5%, and the Asian/Pacific Islander will grow at a rate of 17.6%. African American growth will be slower at 15%, and the state’s white population will decline by 19% Source: CSUS Office of Enrollment Management

  21. State of California High School Graduation Growth (Headcount) by Ethnic Classification (2000-2010) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 1998 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management

  22. Six-County High School Graduation Trends (Headcount) (2000-2008) By 2008, it is estimated that 18,204 HS Students will graduate, a 21.2% increase. Source: High School Trends By County 1997-2008.doc., Enrollment Management Presentation .doc 1/18/00 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management

  23. Stanislaus County High Schools Academic Performance Index (API) Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies

  24. BA BM/BVE 67.1% 0.2% BS 22.6% MA MSW 3.4% 2.8% MS MPA MBA 1.1% 0.9% 1.8% CSU, Stanislaus Degrees Conferred by Degree Type 1997/98 through 2001/02 Source: CSU Stanislaus Fact Book Fall 2002

  25. Management, 14% Other, 14% Accounting, 8% Clerical/Support, 6% Technicians, 3% Teachers, 39% Social Workers, 3% Nursing, 3% Counseling, 2% Law Enforcement, 3% Computer Programmers, 3% Work Areas Reported by Alumni Survey, 2003 Source: CSU Stanislaus 2003 Undergraduate Alumni Survey

  26. CSU, Stanislaus Final Summary of Economic Impacts Source: The Regional Impact of CSU, Stanislaus

  27. The Outlook for College Grads 1998-2008 1998: US Unemployment 4.5% College Grads 1.9% HS Grads 4.9% College Graduate Median Earnings $41,000 HS Graduate Median Earnings $23,000 College “Value Added” 78% Primary source of growth will be in occupations that require a college degree PLUS specialized or professional training. Upgrading skills continues to fuel college enrollments. Jobs for college grads will grow: 28% Non-College level jobs: 11% Competition will remain keen for highest paying jobs... Source: Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Fall 2000

  28. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2002-2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  29. Fastest growing occupations, 2002-2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  30. Fastest growing Industries, 2002-2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  31. Source: Enrollment Services Updated 09/13/04 RLP

  32. CSU, Stanislaus Enrollment Growth 1996-2004

  33. No-Growth Scenario 2004-2010

  34. Probable 3.5% Growth Scenario 2004-2010

  35. Stretch 5.0% Growth Scenario 2004-2010

  36. Master Planning Issues • Current Campus Theoretical Maximums • 12,000 FTES • 15,000 Student Headcount • 2 million sq. ft. of building space • We are at approx. 50% of FTES Maximum • Approx. 1 million sq. ft of building space • Science 2 will add 680 FTE and 857 Headcount to this estimate. • Current Projections suggest we will reach our maximum build out around 2020.

  37. Conclusions • Enrollment in 2010 likely at • 10,000 Student Headcount • 7,500 FTES • Budgetary Pressures Continue • Increasingly Diverse Student Body • Two Fundamental Educational Issues • Core Educational Mission to Address “Lag” • Increasing pressure to address professional and specialized training needs

  38. Key Areas for Planning • Students • Faculty • Facilities and Infrastructure • Administration and Staffing • Academic Programs • Stockton Center • Technology • External Community • WASC

  39. Students • Quality • Diversity • Preparation

  40. Stanislaus County High Schools Graduates Eligible for UC-CSU by Ethnicity – 2001-02 Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies

  41. CSU Stanislaus Freshmen Remediation Trends (Headcount) (Fall 1998 – 2003) Source: California State University Freshman Proficiency Report, January 28, 2003 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management

  42. Faculty • SFR • Workload • Projected Retirements & Replacements

  43. CSU, Stanislaus Age Distribution of Faculty & Staff Source: CSU Office of the Chancellor

  44. Reported Student-Faculty Ratios by College Year Source: CSU Statistical Abstract to July 2002, page 260, Table 161 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management

  45. Facilities and Infrastructure • Science II • Science I Retrofit • Yosemite Property • Parking & Public Safety • Large Public Meeting Space

  46. Administration & Staffing • Organizational Excellence • Internal Priorities

  47. Academic Programs • Generalist v. Niche • Graduate v. Undergraduate Mix

  48. Graduate Enrollments Graduate enrollment comprises approximately 25% of our student headcount enrollments and an estimated 18% of the FTES. Comparison of Graduate School Headcount/FTES Date to University Totals 1998 to 2003 Source: CSUS Office of Enrollment Management

  49. Academic Programs • Stockton Campus • Off-Campus Sites • On-Line Courses • Distance Learning

  50. Stockton Center Enrollments (1998-2003) Source: CSUS Office of Enrollment Management

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