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Carbon estimation and reporting

Carbon estimation and reporting. 2018 Northern Research Station FIA Management Team Meeting Brian Walters. Staff and Cooperators. Grant Domke (group lead) Brian Walters Jim Smith Mike Nichols Forest Service cooperators from every FIA region

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Carbon estimation and reporting

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  1. Carbon estimation and reporting 2018 Northern Research Station FIA Management Team Meeting Brian Walters

  2. Staff and Cooperators • Grant Domke (group lead) • Brian Walters • Jim Smith • Mike Nichols • Forest Service cooperators from every FIA region • University cooperators (Minnesota, Vermont, Maine, Michigan, Oregon State, etc.) • Gov’t Agency cooperators (NASA, USGS, etc.)

  3. Core Responsibilities • Produce estimates of carbon stocks, stock change, and greenhouse gas emissions in the forest land use sector for international reporting requirements • Conduct research to improve carbon estimation • Individual carbon pools • “Data Fusion” - Combining FIA measurements with auxiliary data (e.g. land cover/land use products, satellite imagery time-series, atmospheric observations, etc.) • Contribute forest carbon sections to NRS-FIA 5-year state reports and other analytical reports (e.g. RPA)

  4. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • Stabilize GHG concentrations “at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.” • “…act in the interests of human safety even in the face of scientific uncertainty.” • Entered into force in 1994 • 197 countries have ratified the Convention • US is an Annex 1 Party to the UNFCCC

  5. Annual reporting responsibilities • Forest land remaining forest land • Forest ecosystem carbon • Forest fire emissions • Emissions from drained organic soils • Land converted to forest land • Forest ecosystem carbon • Emissions from drained organic soils • Forest land converted to other land uses • Emissions associated with forest land converting to cropland, grassland, settlement, etc. • Harvested wood products

  6. GHG Estimation and Reporting • Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 – 2016 • Chapter 6: Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry • EPA greenhouse gas website • Carbon estimates for the 1990 – 2017 report have been submitted to the EPA and expert review has been completed • More elaborate in-country expert review completed this year • Review team complimentary of new approach in Alaska and incorporating limited remeasurement data in the West • Successfully addressed all recommendations made by expert team during previous in-country review

  7. Fourth National Climate AssessmentVolume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States • Released November 23, 2018 • https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ • Organized into chapters on national topics, regional assessments, and responses • Chapter 5: Land Cover and Land-Use Change • Chapter 6: Forests • According to the Columbia Journalism Review there were more than 140 front page stories covering NCA4 • Had a potential reach of 2 billion people

  8. Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report • Released on November 23, 2018 • To less fanfare than the NCA4 • Focuses on U.S. and North American carbon cycle processes, stocks, fluxes, and interactions with global-scale carbon budgets and climate change impacts in managed and unmanaged systems • Chapter 9: Forests • Led by our group

  9. Pool Research • Spatial modeling of litter and soil carbon stocks on CONUS forest land • Built upon previous work that used P3 data to improve estimation of carbon in litter and soil • 1 km resolution maps • Can be used in future “data fusion” carbon estimations for international reporting • Also useful as input in other modeling environments, such as LANDIS-II landscape change model

  10. Data Fusion - FIA Plus Auxiliary Data • Improve the spatial and temporal resolution of change estimates • Can be harmonized with FIA and other georeferenced data (e.g. USDA Natural Resource Inventory) • Provides continuity across the entire reporting period • Vast featurespace for prediction

  11. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • The GHG inventory this year included estimates for all managed forest land in Alaska • Previous inventories only included coastal Alaska where FIA had measurements

  12. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • The GHG inventory this year included estimates for all managed forest land in Alaska • Previous inventories only included coastal Alaska where FIA had measurements • Measurements have begun in interior Alaska

  13. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • The GHG inventory this year included estimates for all managed forest land in Alaska • Previous inventories only included coastal Alaska where FIA had measurements • Measurements have begun in interior Alaska • We can use the network of measured and soon-to-be measured plots to estimate forest ecosystem carbon

  14. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • Data Fusion Approach • FIA measurements • FIA hexagons • Ancillary data • MODIS-derived NDVI time series • Climate data • Disturbance time series • Forest type groups • Vegetation canopy cover • Permafrost presence • NLCD • IPCC good practice guidance defaults • Result is carbon stocks and flux for each hexagon by year 1990 – 2017

  15. Questions/Comments • Grant Domke • gmdomke@fs.fed.us • Brian Walters • bfwalters@fs.fed.us

  16. Timber product output 2018 Northern Research Station FIA Management Team Meeting Brian Walters

  17. Staff and Cooperators • Ron Piva • Dave Haugen • Brian Walters • Mitch Slater • State cooperators • TPO teams at SRS and University of Montana

  18. Core Responsibilities • Conduct surveys of primary wood-using mills to assess state timber industries • Publish reports and data tables from surveys • Contribute TPO sections to NRS-FIA 5-year state reports and other analytical reports (e.g. RPA)

  19. Current Reporting Status • Published in the last year • Minnesota 2014 • Michigan 2014 • Nebraska 2014 • South Dakota 2014 • 2015/16 reports due to be published in the next year • Kansas • Missouri • Michigan • Illinois • Current data processing • 2017:Minnesota, Iowa, West Virginia, Massachusetts • Next year’s data collection • Everyone!

  20. Scannable Form

  21. Scannable Form • Deployed in 2017 for 2016 data collection • Many returned in an unscannable state • On hold for now • Only one form to be used for annual sampling, this will not be that form • Hopefully we will be able to revisit scannable forms in the future • Better questions and clearer answer boxes to avoid incomplete and/or messy forms • SRS is interested too

  22. NRS Data Collection - Iowa • Previous mill survey done in 2005 • 104 mills received questionnaires • 28% response rate on initial mailing • 66% response rate after calling, emailing, etc. with mills

  23. NRS Data Collection – West Virginia • Previous mill survey done in 2007 • Similar results to Iowa data collection, but with worse response rate • 116 active mills in 2007 • 55 of those are closed • Difficulty in getting large mills to respond to the questionnaire and phone calls

  24. National TPO • National TPO lead: • John Coulston with the Southern Research Station at Virginia Tech • Annual sampling beginning 2019 • Sampling design research published in Forest Science • Both NRS and SRS are doing annual samples in all states

  25. NRS Annual Sample • We have been in contact with state partners about methods and expectations • Mill lists have been compiled • Some minor work remains on determining size of some mills • Run R scripts to do the sample selection for each state • Early in 2019 we will mail a letter to every mill on our lists alerting them to the new way we will be sampling • 2019 data collection will begin • Coordinate with state partners about data collection • Postcard mailed to sample mills • Questionnaire mailed • Follow up postcard • Calls/emails/visits

  26. Questions/Comments • Grant Domke • gmdomke@fs.fed.us • Ron Piva • rpiva@fs.fed.us • Brian Walters • bfwalters@fs.fed.us

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