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Geopolitical challenges of EU energy policy Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer Chief Executive Officer OMV Aktiengesellschaft V ienna Economic Forum – 10 November 2008. Vienna Economic Forum – 10 November 2008. Challenges of coming years. Oil price and structural changes of oil business
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Geopolitical challenges of EU energy policyWolfgang RuttenstorferChief Executive OfficerOMV AktiengesellschaftVienna Economic Forum – 10 November 2008 Vienna Economic Forum – 10 November 2008
Challenges of coming years • Oil price and structural changes of oil business • Access to additional gas sources • Need to develop low carbon products Increase security of supply for Europe and strengthen competitiveness of EU energy industry
Global Energy Perspectives Energy Market Developments • Global Energy demand growth in all regions • Add. demand since 2002: +1,575 mtoe (+17%) • Acceleration of CAGR*) from 1.3% to 3.1% • Transformation in FSU, Asian finance crises and SARS hiding growth dynamic up to 2002 • Asian demand surge 2002-2007: China +76%, India +31% • „Renaissance“ of coal (2002-2007: +32%) *) compound annual growth rate Source: BP Statistical Review 6/2008
Cost Increase in the Oil Industry IHS/CERA Upstream Capital Costs Index (year 2000 = 100) • Steel 274 • Offshore Rigs 473 • Land Rigs 149 • Equipment 188 • Shipyards 188 • Bulk Materials 156 • Offshore Installation 199 • Subsea 289 • Engineering, Projects Mgt. 214 • Construction Labor 185 Source: Cambridge Energy Research (CERA), 5/2008
Availability of Oil vs Price Source: IEA, adapted 175 Oil shales (2) 150 Required cumulative need to 2030 (1) Arctic 125 EOR Deep water 100 Crude Prices Heavy oil (2) bitumen 75 Other conv. oil 50 Already produced Super deep OPEC Middle East 25 0 5,000 6,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Available Oil (bn bbl) (1) According to IEA‘s World Energy Outlook (2) Estimates include mitigation costs to make heavy oil, Bitumen and oil shales, CO2-neutral compared to conventional oil
Oil Price Development Oil price: collapse after breaking records • „Demand surprise“ and supply constraints • Small spare capacity concentrated to S.-Arabia • Distorted market due to price regulations in oil exporting countries and Asian DC‘s • Delayed demand reaction outside OECD and low impact of OPEC interventions • Geopolitical & regional tensions (Iran, Irak, Venezuela, Nigeria, …) • Weakness / volatility / rebound of US-Dollar • Decoupling of oil price from physical market, temporary flight to oil - a new „financial asset“ • Upstream-costs increase, delay of projects • „Resource nationalism“, worsening of access and contract conditions • Pessimistic demand outlook due to finance crises and economic weakness exaggerated increase unexpected collapse Source: Platts, October 23, 2008
Challenges of coming years • Oil price and structural changes of oil business • Access to additional gas sources • Need to develop low carbon products Increase security of supply for Europe and strengthen competitiveness of EU energy industry
26 % market share in EU-27 based on demand 100 100 100 100 100 12 67 42 75 100 100 62 54 17 68 100 100 base: imports = 100 % 51 100 91 100 32 100 63 77 Source: Cedigaz 2008, OMV calculations (2007 figures) Russia is an important partner for Europe as it meets 26% of EU-27 natural gas demand < 70% Import dependency on Russia> 70% Import dependency on Russia
Nabucco Gas Pipeline ProjectLink between giant gas sources and potential markets 3,490 44,650 1,250 82,860Caspian Region Middle Eastand Egypt 4,520 Source: BP Statistical Review 6/2008 (in bcm)
Construction Step I 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Constr. Step II Phase 1 Phase 2 Construction Step I O p e r a t i o n O p e r a t i o n Link Middle East and the CaspianRegion with our markets: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Project Important new feed pipelines for Nabucco
Challenges of coming years • Oil price and structural changes of oil business • Access to additional gas sources • Need to develop low carbon products Increase security of supply for Europe and strengthen competitiveness of EU energy industry
de-centralised generation Efficient industry residential Efficient carswith diverse fuels (incl. power) OMV develops its portfolio to match shifts in the energy business Changing energy map Adapt portfolio to new market challenges • Electricity and - to some extent - alternative fuels gain market share • While absolute energy demand is increasing, energy efficiency gets higher attention • R&M activities to focus on conversion hubs and mobility centres. Evaluate engagement in R&D projects for 2nd/3rd generation alternative fuels • Develop further technology for heavy oil and ultra-deep gas in E&P • Selective development of G&P value chain from gas into power and selective pilot investments to build up renewable power knowledge and assets. • Secure access to technologies to eliminate carbon impact of fossil fuels (Carbon Capture and Storage - CCS, Zero Emission Power - ZEP). Consumption • Fuel and CO2 costs call for synergies in energy transformation (creation of conversion hubs) • Combination of central and de-central production Transformation + • Nuclear, coal and non-conventional oil & gas gain importance • Renewables become integral part of energy supply Primary energy
Challenges of coming years • Oil price and structural changes of oil business • Access to additional gas sources • Need to develop low carbon products Increase security of supply for Europe and strengthen competitiveness of EU energy industry
OMV’s position and goals: solutions for European challenges European challenges OMV position and strategy • Strengthen position as the leading oil & gas company in CEE • Pursue integrated growth strategy • increasing gas supply to Europe • linking supply sources with European markets • diversifying supply sources and routes • Drive consolidation proactively Secure the future European energy supply Increase competitiveness of European energy companies