Introduction to the Technology and Future of Medicine Course LABMP 590 Fall 2014

1. Introduction to the Technology and Future of MedicineCourse LABMP 590Fall 2014 Kim Solez, MD

2. Objectives For This Lecture To outline the basic plan of course and its expectations, due dates, evaluation criteria, and feedback mechanisms, and new features. To begin to introduce the basic concepts of the course including the technological singularity, exponential change, existential risk. To outline procedures for the potential student presentation evenings. To outline expectations for 600-1000 word past lecture critique due October 23rd, the mentor and topic selection due November 13th, and the 3,000-4,000 word final paper due November 25th.

3. Course Format Each 80-minute class period on Tuesdays and Thursdays will be divided up into 60-minute lecture, and 20-minute whole class discussion. Each student will take on a special project of their own with guidance by the faculty and present the results of that special project in the latter portion of the course. See http://www.singularitycourse.com To avoid consuming regular class time with student presentations, the presentations are mostly given in special student presentation evenings scheduled at a time convenient for the students and mixed with food, entertainment, and social events. One such evening could be scheduled in October or early November so students who wish can give their presentation early. Discussion questions can also be asked by text message during the whole class discussion. Video recording the final presentation and presenting the recording is an option.

4. Course Deadlines, Evaluation Students will be evaluated on their presentation on their chosen project in the course (30%), a paper on that project (40%), a critique and analysis of strengths and weaknesses of a previous lecture in the course (20%) and class participation (10%).  The critique is due October 23th and should be 2-3 pages in length (600-1000 words). Students should pick a mentor and final paper topic by November 13th& inform Dr. Solez atkim.solez@ualberta.ca . The paper is due November 25th and should be 3,000 to 4,000 words excluding references (10-13 pages). The final paper and presentation must be on a subject related to one of the main themes of the course such as exponential change, the technological Singularity, nanotechnology, genomics, replacement of human labor by machines, existential risk, and medical ethics of the future. Sources of images used must be indicated.

5. The Technological Singularity The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted (hence the term "Singularity"). – Ray Kurzweil

6. Major Singularity Developments in February 2011

7. Focus Groups in May 2011 Course conceptualized in March 2011, tested with focus groups in May for its suitability as a course for both undergraduate and graduate students.

8. Over Time Our Course’s Sessions Have Developed a Pedagogical Rhythm, Leading To A Self-organized Structure Ten minute introduction Fifty minute lecture Twenty minute discussion In the course we talk about machines replacing many of the functions of human beings. This picture was taken by a machine without human intervention, as were many of the best still images from the course. The video camera is constantly comparing the scene to algorithms and takes still pictures when the requirements of the interesting picture algorithm are satisfied.

9. Video and Audio Quality Superb Now! First teaching session 2011 Recent teaching session 2012 Hot-linked tables of contents in YouTube video descriptions allow one to jump right to content of interest.

10. Some Student Presentation Videos Have Had Amazing Positive Effects!

11. Diverse Faculty from Across The Campus Are Increasingly Comfortable in the Course. Heather Graves, from Department of English and Film Studies, in Faculty of Arts.

12. Website: www.singularitycourse.comJonathan White’s first lecture originally began with a song “The Future Soon” by Jonathan Coulton. http://www.ask.com/wiki/Cantillation

13. CCIS is on the other side of campus for many of us, but it is good exercise to go there and one often has excellent company making the trip! Pilgrimage

14. Course Specifics • We endeavor to shoot broadcast quality video of each lecture and discussion. • Previous lectures on YouTube.com at /user/KimSolez and /user/avoca99 . Students are asked to critique one past lecture, and suggest improvements in presentation and hot-linked table of contents (20% of grade). • Students write one 3,000 word paper (40%) and give 20 min. presentation on same subject (30%). Also graded on class participation (10%). • No required reading. Suggested reading list in course outline, readings suggested by Email.

15. Course Content • The technological Singularity. Existential risks, AI, genomics, and nanotech. • Ways to optimize a positive outcome for humanity in the co-evolution of humans and machines . The influence of these considerations on medicine of the future. • Prominent people internationally. Most lectures not very “medical”. Easily understood. • Balanced view provided by incorporating both tech skeptics and tech advocates.

16. Our Own Enrollment Exponential? Luckily this did not happen. 12-14 people in the room seems ideal. • Student numbers more than double every six months? Maximum is 40 . • 12-14 people seems ideal. With more than that all students cannot hear all presentations, not enough time for questions!

17. Problem of Audience Heterogeneity • Some already know what the technological Singularity is, others don’t, and are finding out now. • However, if the people and ideas I present are genuinely new and interesting I should be able to satisfy both groups. • The most interesting aspects have to do with the impact on young people today. • Considerable youth orientation in the course. Faculty are getting younger and younger.

18. “We Do Not Yet Have Faculty Arriving By Skateboard But I Predict It Will Happen!”

19. It Happened! – Ross Lockwood

20. Other Innovations New in 2014 • Medical student elective participation in course. • International peer review of YouTube videos, modifications made. Two Quantum Biology lectures. • Young person old person point counterpoint lecture, Abdullah Saleh/Earle Waugh Medical Ethics in a World of Robots(What will we allow when everything is possible). • Collaboration with Social Media in Medicine course in Budapest, Hungary, the only other course somewhat like this one. • We are constantly seeking ways to enhance the intellectual ferment/exchange of ideas and improve the course. Your input is welcome! • Fringe show related to course summer 2015. • Substantial space orientation. Mars habitat etc. • 3D printed surgical instruments, design thinking.

21. Marcus Hutter, ppt with audioThe Singularity Inside and Out

22. The Technological Singularity – Dissemination of Ideas • How Inside Outside and Singularity impact young people, important concepts discussed in course. • Nova program on PBS Television (7 million viewers) • Big Bang Theory (the TV show; 20 million viewers) • Singularity Summit (9,000 views per video) • Kim Solez – Technology and Future of Medicine Course LABMP 590 (2,600 views per video)

23. The Challenge of Friendly AI Probably Exaggerated • . However, Marcus Hutter suggests that there is an element of human insignificance that makes the whole scenario much more challenging. Also, Hutter has created a model general AI which makes the challenge seem more immediate!

24. HutterFor the First Time Conjures Up A Picture of What the Singularity Will Be Like • Outside the Singularity looking in it will be white noise • Inside the Singularity if everything speeds up at the same rate we may not notice anything; it may seem like normal life to us • Even if initially our biological brains count for something in our mental processes, very soon the processing power of the machine implant will vastly outstrip our biological brains. Our biological brains become insignificant regardless of the friendliness or lack thereof of the AI

25. Stuck In A Dysphoric “Eternal Youth” A Caricature Of What It Is Like To Be Young • Extreme risk taking because we can back ourselves up from backups if something bad happens • Insignificance, lack of identity. Why wait to create backups when we have the processing power to run several lives at once. Can replicate ourselves endlessly in seconds! No more waiting 9 months! • The world has little incentive to keep identities straight when biological brains contribute so little to mental processes. Bigger not better • Aimlessness, lack of sense of purpose

26. Real Youth Today Also Experiences Dystopia Due To Poor Economy, WorthWorking Hard To Ensure A Better Future For Ourselves! • The challenge of producing a friendly AI becomes just a small part of the much larger challenge of creating a friendly world in which humans still have lives of significance, human history is retained and extended • A positive outcome is possible; let’s make it likely • We all need to be engaged in ensuring a positive outcome for humanity. The future is ours to shape. We need to get busy doing that! • A simple approach is needed to engage the general public on these matters! • This course is a beginning attempt at achieving that.

27. Two Years Ago Structure Became Much Simpler. The Course Is One Of Very Few Independent Singularity Entities.

28. Foxconn Announcement That It Was Replacing One Million Workers with One Million Robots Made Singularity Appear Much Nearer

29. We Could Eliminate All Disease and Still Have A Terrible World! • The challenge of friendly AI becomes just a small part of a much larger challenge of creating a friendly world in which humans still have lives of significance, human history is retained and extended. • We all need to be engaged in ensuring a positive outcome for humanity. The future is ours to shape. We need to get busy doing that! • Part of the imagined future could beone where all disease was eliminated but life was intolerable. Another where the only diseases are from bioterrorism.

30. 2045 is only 31years from now. Many of you will still be working then. What will medical careers be like then? • All natural disease may be eliminated, leaving only man-made diseases. But that may leave as much for physicians to do as there is today! • Challenging responses to bioterrorism and stem cell technologies. • Focus of medicine no longer disease but enhancement, which will extend beyond the physical to the moral. • Social responsibility an important aspect of medicine and one of the focuses of the course.

31. Rudolf Virchow on the Social Responsibility of Medicine • “It is the curse of humanity that it learns to tolerate even the mosthorrible situations by habituation. Physicians are the naturalattorneys of the poor, and the social problems should largely besolved by them.”-Rudolf Virchow

32. In 2010 became the only full time University faculty member taking the Singularity University Executive Course

33. I have been arguing for new cross disciplinary structures in Universities to better prepare us for the future. • It became apparent that the best way to make this happen was for me to create a novel course of new design. Thus, this course. • Presently, we know of no similar courses being presented elsewhere. • Eventually it is our hope that hundreds of similar courses will begin appearing at Universities all over the world.

34. In a Post-Scarcity World of Abundance Medicine Will Be About Enhancement of Well People, Not About Disease

35. May June 2012 issue of the Futurist, Reversing Aging “A Thousand Years Young”

36. We Need To Consider the Possibility of a Post-Scarcity World, and What Medicine Would Be Like In Such A Singularity Utopia

37. Moore’s Law Predicts Singularity

38. Moore’s Law Muted in Medicine!

39. Moore’s Law Muted in Medicine! • Regulatory oversight that is completely focused on compliance. Discourages risk-taking and innovation. • Health care doesn't have the same financial reward system. Facebook isn't about to pay $1 billion for the latest hot-ticket item in imaging and informatics. • Security always trumps information sharing, and so better, faster linkages are constrained because of security concerns, most of which are bogus.

40. People Are Not Using Medical Apps HealthAppsNotUsed

41. The Microscope and the Megamacroscope-The small picture and the big picture.We need to envision Medicine of the Future.

42. Suggestions on how to capture the imagination of the public to start everyone thinking about these matters are most welcome. • We need the mainstream public to regard the coming Technological Singularity as fact, not fiction. • We need to promote organized thinking about the future in Universities and beyond. • We need to think of all the ways to increase our reach from this one course to the world at large.